Oscar nominations arrive bright and early Tuesday morning, the last of the season’s unveilings, following the guilds, the Globes, the Emmys, the ... what? The Emmys? In case you weren’t paying attention — and judging from the ratings, it seems like most of you had better things to do — television’s biggest night was shoehorned into the (extremely) long and winding road leading up to the Oscars, which are still a couple of months away.
The 2024 Oscar nominations were announced Tuesday, with big numbers for “Oppenheimer,” “Barbie” and two foreign titles, “Anatomy of a Fall” and “The Zone of Interest.”
Still a couple of months away ... and, yet, so many of the races already seem decided. But let’s not jump ahead of ourselves. There remain battles to be fought, whisper campaigns to be hatched, payola scandals to be investigated. And, of course, excellent work to be celebrated. Because 2023 really was a great year for film, and this year’s Oscar nominations will likely reflect that, even if one of the year’s very best movies, Andrew Haigh’s unforgettable “All of Us Strangers,” figures to be blanked. I haven’t felt this melancholy since ... well ... since I saw “All of Us Strangers” at Telluride.
But now is not the time for tears. It’s time for clear thinking as we sweep through all 23 categories, offering predictions, possible surprises and “snubs,” and a silent prayer that my alarm will sound before the crack of dawn Tuesday.
PICTURE
“American Fiction”
“Anatomy of a Fall”
“Barbie”
“The Holdovers”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Past Lives”
“Poor Things”
“The Zone of Interest”
I’ve never been so full of confidence (arrogance?) choosing the best picture nominees as I am with this field. Possible snub? None! These were the 10 movies nominated by Producers Guild Awards voters, a group that, most years, would celebrate a popular studio film like “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse” or sort-of-popular ensemble movies like “The Color Purple” or “Air” or a title that nearly everyone watched over the holidays on Netflix. (Last year: “Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery.” This year’s candidate: “May December.”) Instead, they went with arty, international fare, “The Zone of Interest” and “Anatomy of a Fall.” The academy will follow suit, delivering its finest slate of picture nominees since the academy expanded the category.
DIRECTOR
Greta Gerwig, “Barbie”
Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”
Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things”
Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer”
Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Possible surprise: Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall” or Alexander Payne, “The Holdovers”
Possible snub: Lanthimos
From certainty to chaos: Only Nolan and Scorsese are assured nominations. Five filmmakers will vie for the remaining three spots in a field that could include two women — or none. Lanthimos earned a nomination five years ago for his last movie, the spiky period farce “The Favourite,” and “Poor Things” is funnier, filthier and even more inventive. Gerwig turned a toy company’s IP into a smart, entertaining movie that grossed nearly $1.5 billion. A nomination here (and for screenplay) feels like a fitting reward. And as directors branch voters have picked an international filmmaker five straight years, the last slot should go to Glazer ... or Triet. Or maybe both make it in. Or neither, if the branch defies recent precedent, duplicates the Directors Guild’s slate and goes with the popular Payne.
ACTRESS
Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall”
Carey Mulligan, “Maestro”
Margot Robbie, “Barbie”
Emma Stone, “Poor Things”
Possible surprise: Annette Bening, “Nyad”
Possible snub: Robbie
Bening was overlooked seven years ago for “20th Century Women” and may be neglected again this year for her fierce turn as the egotistical, obsessively determined long-distance swimmer in “Nyad.” Or perhaps she and her co-star, Jodie Foster, both earn nods. They turned “Nyad” into the year’s most enjoyable buddy film. I suspect, though, that Robbie will be carried along on the wave of “Barbie” love — and justifiably so. There was nothing plastic about her performance.
ACTOR
Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Bradley Cooper, “Maestro”
Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers”
Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”
Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction”
Possible surprise: Colman Domingo, “Rustin”
Possible snub: DiCaprio
The “Killers” team was so focused on Gladstone that it took for granted that voters would reflexively check off the box next to DiCaprio’s name. Then DiCaprio didn’t land a SAG Awards nomination. The next day, Apple deluged voters with an ad trumpeting DiCaprio’s turn as his “most complex and transformative performance yet.” That might be a stretch, but DiCaprio is terrific as the gullible dimwit who falls under his uncle’s spell and helps plot the murders of his Osage wife’s family. But many voters I’ve talked with are so repulsed — and, at times, confused — by the character’s actions that they can’t vote for him. That might leave the door open for Domingo’s dynamic turn as civil rights hero Bayard Rustin.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer”
Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple”
Jodie Foster, “Nyad”
Jullianne Moore, “May December”
Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”
Possible surprise: Penélope Cruz, “Ferrari”
Possible snub: Cruz
Randolph winning this award is a foregone conclusion. Blunt, who just earned her fifth SAG Awards nod (she won for “A Quiet Place”), will finally pick up her first Oscar nomination. “The Color Purple” should get something, and Brooks delivered a knockout performance in the juicy role that earned Oprah Winfrey academy recognition in the 1985 Steven Spielberg film. I already mentioned Foster blessing us with her charm in “Nyad.” That leaves Moore and Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”) in movies that were widely streamed and Cruz for a film that didn’t burn up the box office. Cruz is the worthiest, but I’ll give the slight edge to Moore, who hasn’t been nominated since winning the lead actress Oscar for “Still Alice” nearly a decade ago.
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things”
Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer”
Ryan Gosling, “Barbie”
Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”
Possible surprise: Charles Melton, “May December”
Possible snub: Dafoe
Melton’s momentum seems to have stalled a bit after winning several early critics prizes. Still, it might be tempting to add a relative newcomer (can’t imagine too many voters being “Riverdale” obsessives) to a list that skews heavily toward Oscar veterans owning multiple nominations. Playing the disconnected man-child still married to a woman who preyed upon him as a seventh-grader, Melton tinged his character’s agony with a heartbreaking sadness that lingered long after the film ended.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
“American Fiction,” Cord Jefferson
“Barbie,” Greta Gerwig and Noah Baumbach
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese
“Oppenheimer,” Christopher Nolan
“Poor Things,” Tony McNamara
The Writers Guild classified “Barbie” as an original screenplay, and that’s where it was campaigned. But the academy bumped it to adapted a couple of weeks ago, making its path toward an Oscar win more difficult.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
“Anatomy of a Fall,” Justine Triet, Arthur Harari
“The Holdovers,” David Hemingson
“Maestro,” Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer
“May December,” Samy Burch, Alex Mechanik
“Past Lives,” Celine Song
Possible surprise: “Saltburn,” Emerald Fennell
Possible snub: “Maestro”
You could also argue, I suppose, that “Saltburn” belongs in the adapted category, given how heavily it borrows from “The Talented Mr. Ripley” and “Brideshead Revisited.”
ANIMATED FEATURE
“The Boy and the Heron”
“Elemental”
“Nimona”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
“Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”
Possible surprise: “Robot Dreams”
Possible snub: “Nimona”
The animation precursor Annie Awards shut out Disney/Pixar for the first time, ignoring “Wish” and “Elemental.” The latter likely recovers with the film academy. The race will come down to the thrilling box-office smash “Spider-Verse” against Hayao Miyazaki’s acclaimed “The Boy and the Heron,” which enjoyed a pretty nice theatrical run itself.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
“20 Days in Mariupol”
“Beyond Utopia”
“American Symphony”
“Four Daughters”
“The Eternal Memory”
Possible surprise: “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie”
Possible snub: “The Eternal Memory”
This hasn’t been a buzzy year for documentaries, but a couple — “Four Daughters” and “20 Days” — made both the documentary and international feature shortlists. They’ll find their reward here, as will the tender dementia depiction “The Eternal Memory,” the gripping look at North Korean defectors “Beyond Utopia” and “American Symphony,” Matthew Heineman’s look at musician Jon Batiste trying to realize a professional dream while his wife battles leukemia that had been in remission for a decade.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
“Perfect Days”
“Society of the Snow”
“The Taste of Things”
“The Teachers’ Lounge”
“The Zone of Interest”
Possible surprise: “Tótem”
Possible snub: “Perfect Days”
If Tran Anh Hung’s beautiful romance “The Taste of Things” doesn’t earn a nomination, France will lose its collective mind, seeing as that country’s selection committee picked it over likely best picture nominee “Anatomy of a Fall.” But c’mon. Voters can’t possibly ignore Juliette Binoche, can they?
CINEMATOGRAPHY
“El Conde,” Edward Lachman
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Rodrigo Prieto
“Maestro,” Matthew Libatique
“Oppenheimer,” Hoyte van Hoytema
“Poor Things,” Robbie Ryan
Possible surprise: “The Zone of Interest,” Łukasz Żal
Possible snub: “El Conde”
This is an endorsement of the American Society of Cinematographers Awards list, which included Lachman’s gorgeous black-and-white pans and silhouettes in Pablo Larraín’s darkly comic horror take on Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet. It’s on Netflix, but hopefully you found it in a theater.
COSTUME DESIGN
“Barbie,” Jacqueline Durran
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jacqueline West
“Maestro,” Mark Bridges
“Oppenheimer,” Ellen Mirojnick
“Poor Things,” Holly Waddington
Possible surprise: “Napoleon,” Janty Yates & Dave Crossman
Possible snub: “Oppenheimer”
Tricorns or fedoras? What’s your pleasure?
FILM EDITING
“Anatomy of a Fall,” Laurent Sénécha
“Barbie,” Nick Houy
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Thelma Schoonmaker
“Oppenheimer,” Jennifer Lame
“Poor Things,” Yorgos Mavropsaridis
Possible surprise: “The Holdovers,” Kevin Tent
Possible snub: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
The easy joke — and I’ve heard academy members make it — is that a 3 1/2-hour movie can’t be in the running for any kind of editing honors. Of course, if you’ve seen the superbly paced “Killers of the Flower Moon,” you understand this is slander. The editors branch votes on this, so you’d think they’d know what they’re doing. But this is also a group that nominated the jarringly cut “Bohemian Rhapsody,” which went on to win the film editing Oscar. So I’m prepared for anything.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
“Golda”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“Poor Things”
“Society of the Snow”
Possible surprise: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
Possible snub: “Golda”
Ugh. Bradley Cooper’s “Maestro” prosthetic. Never has so much been written about a nose since Nicole Kidman played Virginia Woolf in “The Hours.” Helen Mirren’s transformation to Israeli Prime Minister Golda Meir was every bit as remarkable.
PRODUCTION DESIGN
“Barbie,” Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Jack Fisk (production designer), Adam Willis (set decorator)
“Oppenheimer,” Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)
“Poor Things,” Shona Heath, James Price (production designer), Zsuzsa Mihalek (set decorator)
“The Zone of Interest,” Chris Oddy (production designer), Joanna Kus, Katarzyna Sikora (set decorators)
Possible surprise: Any of the movies listed below
Possible snub: “The Zone of Interest”
“Killers of the Flower Moon” and “Oppenheimer” constructed towns; “Barbie” and “Poor Things” built worlds. The final spot could go to any number of films — “Napoleon” for its palaces, battlefields and French chateaus, “Saltburn” for that opulent titular estate, “Maestro” and its Bernsteinia, “The Color Purple” for its post-antebellum South and that giant gramophone, “Asteroid City” for Asteroid City, “The Zone of Interest” for its chilling re-creation of a beautiful estate in the shadow of Auschwitz. You get the idea. There’s an abundance of excellent work. I’ll go with my favorite and prepare to be wrong.
SCORE
“Killers of the Flower Moon,” Robbie Robertson
“Oppenheimer,” Ludwig Göransson
“Poor Things,” Jerskin Fendrix
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” Daniel Pemberton
“The Zone of Interest,” Mica Levi
Possible surprise: “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny,” John Williams
Possible snub: “The Zone of Interest”
Would it really be a surprise for a composer owning 53 Oscar nominations to score another? (No need to answer.)
SONG
“The Fire Inside” by Diane Warren from “Flamin’ Hot”
“I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt from “Barbie”
“It Never Went Away” by Jon Batiste and Dan Wilson from “American Symphony”
“What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas from “Barbie”
“Road to Freedom” by Lenny Kravitz from “Rustin”
Possible surprise: “Keep It Movin’” by Halle Bailey, Denisia Andrews, Brittany Coney, Morten Ristorp from “The Color Purple”
Possible snub: “The Fire Inside”
Dua Lipa has three Grammys, which should ease the disappointment if her “Barbie” song, “Dance the Night,” is the one of three shortlisted from that movie that doesn’t make the cut.
SOUND
“Ferrari”
“Killers of the Flower Moon”
“Maestro”
“Oppenheimer”
“The Zone of Interest”
Possible surprise: “Barbie”
Possible snub: “Killers of the Flower Moon”
As long as Johnnie Burn’s unsettling sound design for “The Zone of Interest” (juxtaposing bucolic family life with the hell wafting in over the concentration camp’s wall) makes it in, all is well. It should absolutely go on to win.
VISUAL EFFECTS
“The Creator”
“Godzilla Minus One”
“Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3”
“Society of the Snow”
“Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Possible surprise: “Indiana Jones and the Dial of Destiny”
Possible snub: “Godzilla Minus One”
“Godzilla Minus One” helmer Takashi Yamazaki could be the first director to be recognized in this category since Stanley Kubrick won an Oscar for the visual effects in “2001: A Space Odyssey.” I’m not fully confident it’s actually going to happen, but I love the design of this $15 million movie so much that I’m just going to manifest it.
ANIMATED SHORT
“Letter to a Pig”
“Ninety-Five Senses”
“Once Upon a Studio”
“Pachyderme”
“War Is Over! Inspired by the Music of John & Yoko”
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
“The ABCs of Book Banning”
“The Barber of Little Rock”
“Deciding Vote”
“The Last Repair Shop”
“Last Song from Kabul”
LIVE-ACTION SHORT
“The After”
“The Anne Frank Gift Shop”
“Red, White and Blue”
“Strange Way of Life”
“The Wonderful Story of Henry Sugar”
From the Oscars to the Emmys.
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