Forte’s win in Florida Derby makes him the big Kentucky Derby favorite

HALLANDALE BEACH, Fla. —  If there was any doubt who will be the favorite for the Kentucky Derby, Forte erased it with a rousing come-from-behind win Saturday in the $1-million Florida Derby.

He was the 5-2 Las Vegas futures favorite before his one-length victory on Saturday and it’s likely to go even lower after all the major preps are run. The final set of win-and-you’re-in races, highlighted by the Santa Anita Derby, will be next Saturday.

It was a mixed bag for Southern California horses on Saturday as Fort Bragg finished fifth in the Florida Derby and Reincarnate was third in the Arkansas Derby. Both horses were formerly trained by Bob Baffert but moved to the barn of Tim Yakteen because of Baffert’s two-year suspension by Churchill Downs after Medina Spirit had a positive medication test following his win in the 2021 Kentucky Derby. The colt was stripped of his win, although it is still the subject of litigation.

Another Baffert horse, Harlocap, who was transferred to Steve Asmussen‘s barn, finished ninth in the Arkansas Derby.

Reincarnate is on the right side of the bubble to make the Kentucky Derby field with 45 points. It’s highly unlikely that Fort Bragg will make the starting field of 20 with only 15 points. Harlocap didn’t acquire any Derby points.

There are two schools of thought if Saturday’s win by Forte was an indicator for how the colt will do in Louisville. Fourteen horses who won the Florida Derby went on to win at Churchill Downs. Forte, though, was also the winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and only twice has a horse won the Juvenile-Kentucky Derby double, Street Sense in 2006 and Nyquist in 2015.

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The Florida Derby set up with Fort Bragg going to the lead and holding it until the top of the stretch when the field started to get crowded. Forte looked beaten at that point as Mage moved to the front. Then, under a confident ride by Irad Ortiz, Jr., Forte started to get faster and passed the leader with about 30 yards left to the wire.

“I was worried, he had a lot of running to do turning for home,’’ Forte’s trainer, Todd Pletcher, said. “He had to angle out really wide and kind of got a wide trip all the way around. … It looked like he had work to do still at the eighth pole but then he really kicked it in the last part and found his best stride in the last sixteenth” of a mile.

Pletcher, not one for overstatement, summed up his performance in one word: “Spectacular.”

Making the win even more impressive was that Forte ($2.60 to win) broke from the 11th gate in the 1 1/8-mile race, which made for a very short run to the first turn.

Fort Bragg hustled out a little quicker, taking the lead in the turn.

“He ran pretty good,” said Joel Rosario, Fort Bragg’s jockey. “At the break he tilted his head a little bit but after that I got to the lead. Everything went really well, he just got a little bit tired.”

Angel of Empire won the Arkansas Derby ($11.40) for trainer Brad Cox and jockey Flavien Prat. Hopper ($4.80), a 4-year-old not eligible for the Kentucky Derby, won the Oaklawn Mile for Baffert.