2024 Breeders' Cup guide: Which horses are favorites to win?

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DEL MAR — This Breeders’ Cup does not have the star power of past years. There is no Flightline. There is no Cody’s Wish.

Instead, there is a collection of very competitive races that will make the betting markets robust but leave the casual viewer with a bunch of horses they may never have heard of.

There are 14 races over Friday and Saturday worth more than $34 million. The big race is the Classic, which is now worth $7 million. All of Friday’s five Breeders’ Cup races are for 2-year-olds.

There are 169 horses entered with about 80 coming from outside the United States.

In order to prepare for the richest day in racing, here are four storylines:

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Who will be the star?

This year has been the epitome of why the sport has been struggling. No older horse has been that exceptional, leaving all the attention on 3-year-olds. And among those getting the most attention is a filly, Thorpedo Anna, winner of five of six races this year with her only loss a second in the Travers Stakes, where she ran against all male horses.

She was scheduled to have a showdown with Idiomatic, but last year’s champion mare suffered an injury and was retired. It led to a much less interesting Distaff race.

“I didn’t walk her, she walked me,” trainer Kenny McPeek told the Paulick Report. “She drug me around there the whole way. She’s probably the most energetic horse I’ve ever been around. She’s just got this ball of energy all the time. She had it when she was a yearling, and from the moment we bought her, she’s just given us all that.”

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Who’s the best horse you never heard of?

Remember the 1975 film starring John Wayne and Katharine Hepburn called “Rooster Cogburn,” a one-eyed marshal hoping to chase down some bad guys? Almost half a century later, and after two other thoroughbreds with the same name, Cogburn is a horse that has excelled, winning six of his last seven races.

The horse is trained by Steve Asmussen but originally was bought by Bob Baffert.

“I bought the horse for [Mike] Pegram, [Karl] Watson and [Paul] Weitman at the Fasig-Tipton sale,” Baffert said. “But he had this thing on his eye that hadn’t healed up. So, they gave me a warranty on him for 30 days. It cleared up but they said the other eye had some problems. The vet suggested we turn him back.

“So, they put him in a 2-year-old in training sale and he worked really fast. He was named Cogburn because they thought he had only one good eye. That’s where the name came from.”

Cogburn is the 7-5 favorite in Saturday’s Turf Sprint. He is owned by Clark Brewster and William and Corinne Heiligbrodt. Brewster was Baffert’s attorney in the litigation surrounding the disqualification of Medina Spirit in the 2021 Kentucky Derby.

“If I had kept him, I might not have put him on the turf,” Baffert said with a self-deprecating chuckle.

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Who will win the big race?

Fierceness works out at Churchill Downs on May 2.

If it were that easy, we all would be professional gamblers. But the horse that is getting a lot of interest in the $7-million Classic is City of Troy, who will be making his first start in the United States. The 3-year-old is the 5-2 morning-line favorite and will be running on dirt for the first time. The son of Triple Crown winner Justify has won six of seven races, running mostly in Britain. He has four Grade 1 wins.

“When we started working him at 2, we knew he was different,” trainer Aidan O’Brien said. “We think we’ve looked under every stone. We think we have him prepared. ... This is probably the most demanding race for a horse all year. He’s a 3-year-old running against older horses. He has a lot of things to overcome.”

The second favorite is Fierceness, who won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and is coming off back-to-back wins in the Jim Dandy and Travers Stakes. He ran an uninspiring 15th in the Kentucky Derby.

There is also a Japanese horse, Forever Young, that is given a chance at 6-1. He finished third in the Kentucky Derby and has won all six of his races in Japan.

Looking for a long shot? Consider Highland Falls at 20-1. The Brad Cox trainee won the Jockey Club Gold Cup at Saratoga by four lengths.

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Why’s the race at Del Mar two straight years?

Well, that’s a good question. In short, no one else was willing to make the commitment.

The Breeders’ Cup, at least for a few years, did a structured California-Kentucky rotation, but then Churchill Downs suspended Baffert for what turned out to be three years.

According to people with knowledge of the negotiations, Churchill refused to allow the Breeders’ Cup to use its track if Baffert were allowed to run. Since Breeders’ Cup sites are announced well in advance, Churchill’s unwillingness to compromise took the track out of contention. Keeneland, located about 90 minutes away, also was also a viable site until the track announced an extensive renovation, which took it out of contention.

Santa Anita did not apply for 2025 amid growing speculation that the track’s long-term viability is in question.