Dodgers Dugout: Why the Dodgers will beat the Mets in the NLCS

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell. A rare Sunday edition of the newsletter.

Well, wasn’t that a terrific Game 5 against the Padres?

Here are some random thoughts before we turn our attention to the Mets.

Game 5

—All those who doubted Yoshinobu Yamamoto are eating humble pie right now. Including yours truly.

—Some players are just built for the postseason. Kiké Hernández is one of those players.

His regular-season career numbers: .238/.398/.405.
His postseason career numbers: .277/.351/.548. He averages a homer every 28.35 at-bats during the season and a homer every 13.43 at-bats in the postseason. Barry Bonds averaged a homer every 16.78 at-bats in the postseason. Willie Mays every 11.7 at-bats. Hank Aaron every 11.5. Reggie Jackson every 15.11. Hernández has 14 postseason homers, tied for 20th on the all-time list, which is somewhat misleading because there are so many rounds of the postseason now. Mickey Mantle, for example, hit 18 postseason homers, but all in the World Series.

—As for that postgame interview with Ken Rosenthal, I’m pretty sure Hernández can’t use that word on TV. A handful of people wrote me afterward very disappointed, saying that the Dodgers must be furious with him. I’m guessing the Dodgers aren’t furious at all. In fact, they have him just for that kind of attitude. And while I believe much of society uses curse words as a lazy language crutch, there are moments where a well-timed one is perfect. That was one of those times. I’m sure Fox wasn’t thrilled, but, hey, live TV. I did notice they were quick on the censor button while showing the locker room celebration.

If you missed it, you can watch it here.

And yes, there were kids watching. But, be a parent and explain to your kids that you shouldn’t use that language. Trust me, unless they are little kids, they hear curse words at school a lot.

—And then the other Hernández, Teoscar, gives a much-needed insurance run with a dramatic home run. It was sort of overlooked when he signed for one year and $23.5 million in the offseason, but he has earned every penny, with a career season, followed by a postseason where he has hit .333 with two homers and a team-leading seven RBIs.

The question I get asked frequently is, will the Dodgers re-sign him? Let’s not get ahead of ourselves and just enjoy what he is doing right now. There’s plenty of time to discuss that in the offseason.

—Here’s another reason fans don’t need to throw things on the field. The baseball gods are always watching. They saw Jurickson Profar and Fernando Tatis Jr. taunting Dodger fans, sometimes with some vulgar movements. They saw Manny Machado leave the base path (legal or not). And the Padres did not score after that third inning. Machado was the final nail in that coffin.

—Or, as Yogi Berra said, “Nobody likes Manny Machado.”

—Of course, after the game, Profar refused to give the Dodgers any credit, saying, “We don’t want to give credit either, you know, to their pitching. We just didn’t come through.” Stay classy, Jurickson. The reason you didn’t come through was because of the pitching.

—This is in contrast to the Dodgers, many of whom said afterward that the Padres are a great team.

—The Dodger Stadium crowd was as loud as I have ever heard it. Keep that same energy for the rest of the postseason.

—The Dodgers did all of this without an amazing series by Shohei Ohtani. That home run he hit in the first game seemed to give them all the charge they needed.

—Now Petco Park can go back to what it is usually used for in October: one of those ubiquitous, popup, Spirit Halloween stores. If you are looking for a Profar costume, you will find it labeled under “clown.”

—And it’s time to praise Dave Roberts. I know (according to our polls run twice a year) about 20% of you hate him. But you’re wrong. He was masterful in the NLDS, calling on the right pitcher at the right time. pulling pitchers at the right time. Everything worked. It’s so easy to manage the game from your sofa. But dealing with 26 personalities, keeping everyone happy no matter how much they play, winning 95+ games every year and making the postseason every year? Impressive. “Yeah, but with that payroll, I could manage the team and win 90 games.” No, you couldn’t. You wouldn’t even finish above .500. He’s not going to be fired. He’s going to be here for a while. As Ric Flair would say, “You don’t have to like it, but learn to love it.” Every manager has flaws, Roberts has no exception. I’ve pointed them out before. But too many times people focus on only the flaws and not the positives. You’d visit the Sistine Chapel and say, “Yeah, but looks at the cracks around the edges.” Give him his credit. He’s a large part of their success this season.

—That was the most satisfying Dodger victory in four years. But, now they have to do it all over again. Buy some more Tums. Recharge the defibrillator. Get those asthma inhalers refilled. The Mets will not be pushovers.

The Mets?

After the games of June 15, the Mets were 32-37, 14.5 games out of first in fourth place in the NL East. Their fans were discouraged on social media, thinking this was another lost season. After that date, they were 57-36, the second-best record in the NL, just behind the Padres and just ahead of the Dodgers.

Game 1 could be an emotional letdown for the Dodgers after the Game 5 win. They have to guard against that. The Mets will be well-rested.

This worked so well for the NLDS, let’s do another position-by-position breakdown:

Catcher

Will Smith, .248/.327/.433, 20 homers, 75 RBIs, 116 OPS+, 3.5 WAR
In this postseason: 2 for 16, 1 homer, 2 RBIs, 4 walks, 2 K’s

Francisco Alvarez, .237/.307/.403, 11 homers,, 47 RBIs, 101 OPS+. 0.8 WAR
Postseason: 4 for 26, 1 RBI, 9 K’s

Smith fell into a lengthy slump about midway through the season but seemed to be coming out of it the last couple of weeks. He has had a quiet postseason except for that one mammoth home run. The four walks are a positive, as he’s not chasing pitches. Alvarez is not bad, but he’s not as good as Smith at most things.

Edge: Dodgers

First base
Freddie Freeman, .282/.378/.476, 22 homers, 89 RBIs, 143 OPS+, 4.7 WAR
Postseason: 4 for 14, 2 K’s

Pete Alonso, .240/.329/.459, 34 homers, 88 RBIs, 123 OPS+, 2.6 WAR
Postseason: 4 for 13, 1 double, 2 homers, 3 RBIs, 4 walks, 6 K’s

It’s amazing that Freeman got four hits on what is obviously a painful ankle. You consider what he has been through this season, with this and with what happened to his son, and it’s quite a testament to his toughness. Alonso has more raw power, but Freeman is better. A couple of titanic Alonso homers could motivate the Mets, so, don’t let that happen. Freeman’s ankle injury seems to have robbed Freeman of his power and some of his mobility, making this even.

Edge: Even

Second base
Gavin Lux, .251/.320/.383, 10 homers, 50 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 2.1 WAR
Postseason: 5 for 18, 1 homer, 3 RBIs, 1 walk, 2 K’s

Jose Iglesias, .337/.381/.448, 4 homers, 26 RBIs, 137 OPS+, 3.1 WAR
Postseason: 6 for 29, 3 RBIs, 1 walk, 7 K’s
or

Jeff McNeil, .238/.308/.384, 12 homers, 44 RBIs, 97 OPS+, 1.6 WAR

Lux got off to a horrific start this year before hitting .304 with power after the All-Star break and continued to hit well in the NLDS, with some solid defensive plays. Iglesias has never hit this well in his life. McNeil had his wrist broken by a pitch in early September and hasn’t played since, but has been working out in Arizona and is expected to be activated for this series. Either way

Edge: Dodgers

Third base
Max Muncy, .232/.358/.494, 15 homers, 48 RBIs, 141 OPS+, 3.0 WAR
Postseason: 3 for 18, 1 double, 1 homer, 1 RBI, 1 walk, 6 K’s

Mark Vientos, .266/.322/.516, 27 homers, 71 RBIs, 135 OPS+, 3.2 WAR
Postseason: 12 for 28, 2 doubles, 2 homers, 5 RBIs, 2 walks, 5 K’s

This is an example of why you can’t judge by just batting average. Muncy was outhit by 43 points but had a higher OB% and SLG%. However, he was chasing bad pitches in the NLDS. He needs to stop doing that. Vientos is about on par with Muncy on defense, but has been on fire this postseason.

Edge: Mets

Shortstop
Miguel Rojas, .283/.337/.410, 6 homers, 36 RBIs, 113 OPS+, 3.4 WAR
Postseason: 2 for 8

Francisco Lindor, .273/.344/.500, 33 homers, 91 RBIs, 138 OPS+, 7.0 WAR
Postseason: 7 for 27, 3 doubles, 1 homer, 5 RBIs, 2 walks, 6 K’s

Rojas has been an unsung hero for the Dodgers this season, and says he will be ready to go for the NLCS. But, will the Dodgers decide to put Tommy Edman here and Kiké Hernández at short to get his bat in there? Lindor will finish second in NL MVP voting to Ohtani and is one of the best players in baseball. The series may come down to who does better, Ohtani or Lindor, at the plate.

Edge: Mets

Left field
Teoscar Hernández, .272/.339/.501, 33 homers, 99 RBIs, 137 OPS+, 4.3 WAR
Postseason: 6 for 18, 2 homers, 7 RBIs, 2 walks, 4 K’s

Brandon Nimmo, .224/.327/.399, 23 homers, 90 RBIs, 107 OPS+, 2.3 WAR
Postseason: 7 for 26, 1 homer, 3 RBIs, 4 walks, 3 K’s

Hernández has been a revelation this season and rises to the big moments. Nimmo is one of those guys who get overlooked but can kill you in a series like this if you aren’t careful with him

Edge: Dodgers

Center field
Tommy Edman, .237/.294/.417, 6 homers, 20 RBIs, 101 OPS+, 0.9 WAR
Postseason: 4 for 17, 1 RBI, 2 K’s

Harrison Bader, .236/.284/.373, 12 homers, 51 RBIs, 86 OPS+. 1.0 WAR
Postseason: 3 for 6, 1 double, 1 K

or

Tyrone Taylor, .248/.299/.401, 7 homers, 35 RBIs, 99 OPS+, 2.0 WAR
Postseason: 3 for 23, 1 double, 1 walk, 8 K’s

After not playing all year and being acquired at the trade deadline, Edman filled the old Chris Taylor role very well and laid down a key bunt in the NLDS. Remember bunts? Bader and Taylor are pretty much the same player.

Edge: Dodgers

Right field
Mookie Betts, .289/.372/.491, 19 homers, 75 RBIs, 145 OPS+, 4.8 WAR
Postseason: 4 for 18, 2 homers, 3 RBIs, 3 walks, 3 K’s

Starling Marte, .269/.327/.388, 7 homers, 40 RBIs, 104 OPS+, 0.7 WAR
Postseason: 4 for 20, 5 RBIs, 3 walks, 6 K’s

Betts finally got some postseason hits, but still, he hit only .222. He looks locked in now though. Marte is the very definition of a league average player.

Edge: Dodgers

Designated hitter
Shohei Ohtani, .310/.390/.646, 54 homers, 130 RBIs, 190 OPS+, 9.2 WAR
Postseason: 4 for 20, 1 homer, 4 RBIs, 2 walks, 10 K’s

J.D. Martinez, .235/.320/.406, 16 homers, 69 RBIs, 106 OPS+, 0.5 WAR

Ohtani is great, of course, but he did strike out in half of his at bats. He had a couple of mini slumps during the season that were characterized by a lot of strikeouts, here’s guessing he will rise to the moment in the NLCS. Martinez was the DH for the Dodgers last season and was great. He hasn’t been as good this season, but is still dangerous and is a noted Dodger-killer.

Edge: Dodgers

Starting pitching

Dodgers
Jack Flaherty, 6-2, 3.58 ERA
Yoshinobu Yamamoto, 7-2, 3.00 ERA
Walker Buehler, 1-6, 5.38 ERA
Landon Knack, 3-5, 3.65 ERA

Mets
Kodai Senga, 1-0, 3.38 ERA
Luis Severino, 11-7, 3.91 ERA
Sean Manaea, 12-6, 3.47
Jose Quintana, 10-10, 3.75 ERA

Manaea and Quintana are left-handers. They have three reliable starters. Senga made only one start this season because of shoulder and calf injuries. He probably can’t go more than five innings, if that. He’s really good though. The Dodgers have two reliable starters, and one of them, Yamamoto, might be able to start only one game in the NLCS because he needs five days of rest between starts. So, two starts by Flaherty, two by Buehler, one by Yamamoto, and two bullpen games? Or Knack and one bullpen game? A lot will depend on the series status.

Edge: Mets

Bullpen

Dodgers
Evan Phillips, 5-1, 3.62 ERA, 18 saves
Alex Vesia, 5-4, 1.76 ERA, 5 saves
Anthony Banda, 3-2, 3.08 ERA, 2 saves
Daniel Hudson, 6-2, 3.00 ERA, 10 saves
Blake Treinen, 7-3, 1.93 ERA, 1 save
Michael Kopech, 4-0, 1.13 ERA, 6 saves

Mets
Edwin Diaz, 6-4, 3.52 ERA, 20 saves
David Peterson, 10-3, 2.90 ERA
Ryne Stanek, 1-0, 6.06 ERA
Tylor Megill, 4-5, 4.04 ERA
Reed Garrett, 8-5, 3.77 ERA, 4 saves
Phil Maton, 2-1, 2.51 ERA, 1 save
Adam Ottavino, 2-2, 4.34 ERA, 1 save
Danny Young, 4-1, 4.54 ERA

Dave Roberts said Saturday that it is unlikely Vesia will be on the NLCS roster. He left Game 5 because of a cramp in his right side, and it turned out to be an intercostal injury, which means the injury is between the ribs. If he’s out, that’s a big blow. Who takes his place on the roster? Joe Kelly and Brusdar Graterol still aren’t ready. Michael Grove is ineligible because he was removed from the NLDS roster. Edgardo Henriquez looked bad in his lone NLDS appearance. Ben Casparius will probably make the roster. Do they turn to left-hander Justin Wrobleski? When they have a bullpen game, someone who is not a high-leverage arm will have to pitch some high-leverage inning. For the Mets, Peterson and Megill were starters during the season, Peterson and Young are left-handed. When Diaz is on his game, he’s as good as anyone, but he isn’t always on his game. Mets relievers walk a lot of batters, which should play into the Dodgers’ favor if they remain patient.

Edge: Dodgers

Bench

Dodgers
Austin Barnes
Kiké Hernández
Chris Taylor
Andy Pages

Mets
Luis Torrens
Luisangel Acuna
Bader or Taylor
Iglesias or McNeil
Jesse Winker

Edge: Dodgers

That gives the Dodger the edge in eight categories, the Mets in three, and one even. If only it was that simple.

The keys for the Dodgers are the same as against the Padres. Get as much out of the starting pitchers as possible. Get an early lead. Turn it over to the bullpen. Add some insurance runs. Win the game. Again, if it was only that simple.

Prediction: Dodgers in six.

Dodgers’ NLCS schedule

Sunday: New York (Kodai Senga) at Dodgers (Jack Flaherty), 5:15 p.m., Fox
Monday: New York (Sean Manaea) at Dodgers (TBD), 1 p.m., Fox
Wednesday: Dodgers at New York, 5 p.m., FS1
Thursday: Dodgers at New York, TBD, FS1 or Fox
*Friday: Dodgers at New York, TBD, FS1 or Fox
*Sunday, Oct. 20: New York at Dodgers, TBD, FS1 or Fox
*Monday, Oct. 21: New York at Dodgers, TBD, FS1 or Fox

*-if necessary

In case you missed it

Dodgers’ starting pitching plan for NLCS vs. Mets remains a work in progress

Dodgers shortstop Miguel Rojas expects to play in NLCS vs. Mets

Nine concerns the Dodgers should have about facing the Mets in the NLCS

Hernández: Yoshinobu Yamamoto bounces back from struggles to deliver under pressure

Kiké Hernández renews his reputation for October heroics: ‘This guy always rises’

Plaschke: Playoff demons be gone! Dodgers outlast Padres to advance to NLCS

Photos: Look back at the Dodgers’ NLDS series win over the Padres

Dodgers celebrate winning the NLDS over the Padres in Game 5

And finally

Jake Taylor calls his shot (Look for Steve Yeager coaching third base). Watch and listen here.