Dodgers Dugout: Gee, $1.2 billion doesn’t go as far as it used to

Hi, and welcome to another edition of Dodgers Dugout. My name is Houston Mitchell and the Dodgers have spent $1.161 billion on three players. Coincidentally, $1.161 billion is what it will cost a family of four to attend a game next season. Just take out a loan.

The Dodgers weren’t satisfied with signing Shohei Ohtani to a 10-year, $700-million deal. They decided to add two other quality pitchers for a hefty price tag.

First they traded pitcher Ryan Pepiot and outfielder Jonny DeLuca to Tampa Bay for pitcher Tyler Glasnow and outfielder Manuel Margot. And they signed Glasnow to a five-year, $136.5-million contract that extends his current deal through 2028.

Then they agreed with Yoshinobu Yamamoto, the best pitcher in Japan, on a 12-year, $325-million deal.

Let’s take those new players one at a time.

Margot is a good fielder who can play all three outfield position, but mainly plays right or center. As a hitter ... well, he’s a heck of a fielder. He has been an above-average hitter only once, when he had a 104 OPS+ in 2022, hitting .274/.325/.375 in 89 games. Last season, in 99 games and 311 at-bats, he hit .264/.310/.376 with 21 doubles and four home runs. That was good for an OPS+ of 91, meaning he was 9% worse than a league average hitter. Which is also his career OPS+, 91. How he fits into the Dodgers lineup remains to be seen. He could platoon, he could be used for late defense, he could be traded for someone else. Reports are that the Dodgers wanted Randy Arozarena instead of Margot, but that the Rays wanted too many good prospects for him. Arozarena was the 2021 Rookie of the Year in the AL and has a career OPS+ of 126.

The Dodgers were really after Glasnow, 30, though. He is perfect for the Dodgers because he fulfills Andrew Friedman‘s seeming compulsion to have as many pitchers who had Tommy John surgery on the roster as possible. Glasnow was out from July 2021 to September 2022. Before and after that he has been a solid starting pitcher with tremendous upside. He grew up in Santa Clarita and went to Hart High, debuting with the Pittsburgh Pirates as a 22-year-old in 2016.

“This is somewhere I’ve wanted to be my entire life,” Glasnow said. “They were very bullish on trying to get me, and I appreciate the fact they thought so highly of me. I get to go home. It’s like the best possible scenario. …

“There could be a potential downside for not signing something [now] and a potential upside [to go to free agency], but I was never super interested in trying to get as much money as I possibly could. It’s a lot more about being somewhere I want to be.”

To help seal the deal, Ohtani sent Glasnow a video promising to hit him some home runs next season.

“It was awesome,” Glasnow said of the video. “I think his recruitment worked. … I’ve watched the Dodgers from afar for so long. Even last year, they were so good, and then when Shohei signed, I was like, ‘Yeah, I’m going to be on that team.’ I’m ecstatic.”

Glasnow’s numbers:

2016: 0-2, 4.24 ERA, 23.1 IP, 22 hits, 13 walks, 24 K’s, 99 ERA+
2017: 2-7, 7.69 ERA, 62 IP, 81 hits, 44 walks, 56 K’s, 56 ERA+
2018: 2-7, 4.27 ERA, 111.2 IP, 89 hits, 53 walks, 136 K’s, 94 ERA+
2019: 6-1, 1.78 ERA, 55.2 IP, 42 hits, 19 walks, 64 K’s, 248 ERA+
2020: 5-1, 4.08 ERA, 57.1 IP, 43 hits, 22 walks, 91 K’s, 100 ERA+
2021: 5-2, 2.66 ERA, 88 IP, 55 hits, 27 walks, 123 K’s, 152 ERA+
2022: 0-0, 1.35 ERA, 6.2 IP, 4 hits, 2 walks, 10 K’s
2023: 10-7, 3.53, 120 IP, 93 hits, 37 walks, 162 K’s, 118 ERA+
Career: 30-27, 3.89 ERA, 529.2 IP, 427 hits, 212 walks, 678 K’s, 107 ERA+

After a shaky start to his career, he settled in during the 2019 season and has been a solid starter ever since.

However, looking at the numbers, there is one troubling aspect: He has pitched more than 100 innings in a season only once, last season. He struggled with his command while with the Pirates and they traded him to the Rays at the 2018 trade deadline. He was on the IL from May-September in 2019 because of a strained forearm. He was healthy during the 60-game 2020 season, then had his Tommy John surgery in 2021. So, while the strikeout numbers are eye popping, so are the innings and injury numbers. Trading for him and then signing him to an extension is certainly a gamble. The Dodgers usually don’t ask for much more than six innings out of their starters, so perhaps it will work out great.

To get him, the Dodgers traded their own injury-prone pitcher in Pepiot, who also has a high upside. If he can stay healthy, he will have a solid career. DeLuca, 25, would probably have been just as good as Margot, but you have to give up something to get a pitcher like Glasnow. If everything turns out like expected, it will be a good trade for the Dodgers. But we won’t be able to judge this trade for quite a while.

The big splash was signing Yamamoto. He is a three-time MVP in Japan’s Nippon Professional Baseball league and his career ERA in 967 innings is 1.72.

Yamamoto, 25, has a four-seam fastball that reaches 95 mph, a 90-mph, split-fingered fastball that has 20 inches of drop, and a 77-mph curve with 77 inches of drop. Glasnow is 6-feet-8 and Yamamoto is 5-10, so they will provide quite a visual contrast for hitters if they pitch on consecutive nights.

How will Yamamoto adapt to pitching in the U.S.? No one knows, but every scout thinks he will have no problem at all. The question is durability. He didn’t pitch every fifth day in Japan. Can he do it here?

Multiple teams bid for him, with the Mets also offering him $325 million. But, it’s also a bit of a gamble to give $325 million to someone who has never thrown a pitch in MLB before. He can opt out after year six and year eight of the deal and gets a $50 million signing bonus. No money is deferred. Also, because of how the posting system for players coming from Japan works, his team in Japan gets $50 million.

“We could not be more excited to bring Yoshinobu Yamamoto to the Dodgers,” Friedman said. “You don’t win three MVP awards by the age of 25 without an exceptional combination of talent, work ethic and mental toughness. He’s an elite pitcher with an impressive dedication to his craft who will only become more dynamic in a Dodger uniform. We are thrilled for him to be a mainstay at the top of our starting rotation for years to come.”

To see all of Yamamoto’s stats in Japan, just go here.

The Dodgers were able to trade for and extend Glasnow and sign Yamamoto in part because Ohtani deferred so much of his money (remember, he’s getting paid only $2 million next season).

The Dodgers’ 2024 payroll for salary threshold purposes has surpassed $280 million, according to Cots Contracts. The third luxury tax threshold is $277 million. Because of that, any other signings the Dodgers make will incur a 92.5% surcharge.

The Dodgers are obviously, finally, publicly tired of flaming out in the postseason and are doing everything they can think of to win the World Series. But, just being real here, none of this guarantees that. It’s great they are doing this, and hopefully at the end of the 2024 season we read “Ohtani, Yamamoto named World Series co-MVPs.” But, there’s an alternate reality where they headline could read “Betts, Freeman, Ohtani go three for 42 and Yamamoto shelled as 140-win Dodgers are swept in the first round.”

The team is not perfect, but here’s next season’s rotation:

Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Tyler Glasnow
Walker Buehler
Bobby Miller
Emmet Sheehan/Gavin Stone/someone else

Buehler might not be ready for opening day and will be on an innings restriction this season. If you are wondering about Clayton Kershaw, he won’t be back until July or so. Then he will decide who to sign with. Tony Gonsolin will probably miss the season because of Tommy John surgery. Dustin May won’t be back until August, if then, after his elbow surgery.

Let’s take a look at a possible 26-man roster for the Dodgers.

Mookie Betts, 2B
Shohei Ohtani, DH
Freddie Freeman, 1B
Will Smith, C
Max Muncy, 3B
James Outman, CF
Chris Taylor, LF
Jason Heyward, RF
Gavin Lux, SS

Bench
Austin Barnes
Manuel Margot
Miguel Rojas
Miguel Vargas/Michael Busch

Rotation
Yamamoto
Glasnow
Buehler
Miller
Sheehan/Stone/someone else

Bullpen
Yency Almonte
Caleb Ferguson
Brusdar Graterol
Joe Kelly
Evan Phillips
Blake Treinen/Daniel Hudson
Alex Vesia
Ryan Yarbrough

The Dodgers are still trying to add to this team, mainly by trade. A reunion with Kiké Hernández remains possible, especially if they don’t feel Vargas is ready. There are reports the Dodgers are interested in closer Josh Hader. The team just spent $1.16 billion and still has a few needs. That’s amazing when you think about it.

I’m not trying to throw cold water on anyone’s excitement. Adding Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow is great. But just like you shouldn’t get too down after every loss, don’t take time off for a World Series parade just yet. There’s still a long way to go.

Ohtani gives a Porsche away

Ohtani has worn No. 17 throughout his career, but Joe Kelly wears that number for the Dodgers. Not wanting that to stand in the way of Ohtani coming to L.A., Kelly’s wife, Ashley, put up a post on Instagram showing herself and Joe penciling in “99” on a Joe Kelly Dodger jersey.

Ohtani must have appreciated the video, because last week, he gave Kelly’s wife a gift: A new Porsche. You can watch it all happen here.

Speedy recovery

Best wishes to Lin Porter, wife of former Dodgers broadcaster (and former newsletter contributor) Ross Porter. Lin fell and broke her leg and hip, but was able to return in time for Christmas. I’m sure Ross was at the ready with the appropriate supportive stat. “Lin, women who fall and break their hip on a Sunday have a 98% recovery rate.”

Ross used to answer questions from readers of the newsletter. It was so successful he branched off into his own Facebook page, where you can go and ask him questions. Just go to Facebook and search for Ross Porter Sports.

Ohtani poll

We asked readers of our Dodgers newsletter, “Are you happy with the Shohei Ohtani deal?” After 21,471 votes, the result:

Yes, 85.5%
No, 14.5%

Scheduling note

The newsletter goes back on hiatus until the second week of January, when we will catch up on news between now and then and do our yearly Hall of Fame voting. Sorry for the sporadic posting the last couple of months. I haven’t taken an extended break from writing the newsletter since it first began in 2015, and it has been nice to have a mental recharge. The Dodgers keep signing guys and interrupting the break though! Bad Dodgers! Bad!

In case you missed it

Dodgers announce signing of Yoshinobu Yamamoto to 12-year, $325-million deal

Yoshinobu Yamamoto the next Dodgers ace? Scouts praise his skill, question his durability

Ohtani hits one out of the park, gifting a Porsche to Dodger pitcher Joe Kelly’s wife days before Christmas

Orel Hershiser discovers his inner holiday crooner in Christmas song collaboration

Hernández: Shohei Ohtani’s $680-million loan to Dodgers made Yoshinobu Yamamoto deal possible

MLB is widening the runner’s lane to first, changing a rule that has caused controversy