No Doubt About Barbaro
One reason Barbaro was considered vulnerable going into the Kentucky Derby was that he had not raced in five weeks.
Some dismissed Barbaro, pointing out that the last horse to win the Derby after such a layoff was Needles in 1956.
That theory went up in flames. Barbaro remained unbeaten with a 6 1/2 -length victory at Churchill Downs two weeks ago.
Now, doubters are saying that Barbaro will be upset in the Preakness because he’s coming back in 14 days. He has had at least 34 days between each of his six previous wins.
This line of thinking will also be shot down. Although the price will pale in comparison to the 6-1 his supporters got in the Derby, Barbaro will remain perfect. He will head to New York with a chance to become the sport’s first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.
Of course, an upset is possible. Fusaichi Pegasus was thought by some to be a lock for the Triple Crown after he’d won the Derby in 2000. He bombed in Baltimore, losing to Red Bullet, then didn’t run in the Belmont Stakes.
However, a win by any horse but the favorite is not likely.
Sure, Brother Derek and Sweetnorthernsaint had bad trips in the Derby.
Despite what their cheerleaders may believe, however, neither would have beaten Barbaro under any circumstances, the way he performed that day.
Brother Derek has to gain 9 1/2 lengths on Barbaro in the Preakness, and Sweetnorthernsaint has to make up 13.
Barbaro is the best of his generation. He has handled everything thrown at him so far -- turf, a sloppy main track, an outside post going 1 1/8 miles at Gulfstream Park, which is a ticket to disaster on that track -- and is unblemished.
Racing after only two weeks’ rest may be new for Barbaro, but his two main rivals are also coming back in 14 days and they had to run a lot harder in the Derby than he did.
Barbaro, who can be positioned wherever jockey Edgar Prado wants him to be, ran a rapid final quarter of a mile in the Derby -- the fastest since Secretariat in 1973 -- and did so without Prado ever having to use his whip. He is a fresh horse who has been managed with the Triple Crown in mind.
Sweetnorthernsaint lost position at the start of the Derby, then made a mid-race move to get into contention, before fading late and finishing seventh.
A better start and smaller field means he will be closer early today and then we’ll see how good he is.
Before winning the Illinois Derby, Sweetnorthernsaint was third, beaten by less than a length, in the Gotham on March 18 at Aqueduct. His backers point out that he had Post 10 that day. Another excuse. The 1-2 Gotham finishers were Like Now, who will be a longshot in the Preakness, and Keyed Entry, who finished last in the Derby.
Brother Derek was wide finishing fourth in Kentucky, but he has yet to show he can overcome adversity of any kind and win outside California.
The Benchmark colt has had cushy trips in all of his local two-turn victories and has been dusted both times he has traveled. He also finished a well-beaten fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last fall at Belmont Park.
