In Iran, war jitters fuel public support for developing nuclear weapons

TEHRAN —  As the world braces for another round of escalatory exchanges between Israel and Iran, some ordinary Iranians who had previously opposed any move by their government to develop nuclear weapons are having a change of heart.

“I think we should go for it,” said Vafa Sharzad, a 33-year-old chemical engineer.

Sharzad said she had always supported negotiations with Western governments over Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and welcomed the landmark nuclear accord of nine years ago between Iran and several world powers, believing it would bring greater economic opportunity and an easing of international isolation.

“But I have my doubts today,” she said.

Although the nuclear accord has been imperiled since then-President Trump withdrew from it in 2018, Iran’s government continues to insist it does not intend to develop nuclear arms. And many sanctions-weary Iranians have long been wary of any nuclear moves that would trigger further economic hardship.

However, the most direct outbreak yet of hostilities with Israel is changing the thinking of some here.

A year after the outbreak of war in the Gaza Strip, Israel has taken aim not only at Hamas, whose attack in southern Israel triggered that devastating conflict, but also at Iran’s other regional proxies — Houthi rebels in Yemen and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Iran last week unleashed a barrage of missiles against Israel that it said was in retaliation for Israel’s assassination of Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, and a series of other deadly strikes against the Iranian-backed group, which for months has been firing rockets into Israel.

Israel said its missile-defense system repelled most of the incoming projectiles, but nonetheless declared it would retaliate. The Biden administration, fearing an Israeli strike on Iranian nuclear facilities or other major infrastructure, has sought to de-escalate the confrontation.

The president was asked last week whether he would support Israel hitting Iran’s nuclear sites.

“The answer is no,” President Biden replied.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has long contended that Iran, and its nuclear aspirations in particular, poses an existential threat to Israel.

Since the onset of the current crisis, some Israeli political figures, inside and outside government, have called openly for the military to seize a chance to strike at Iran’s nuclear sites.

“This is a one-time window of opportunity in which we have both the legitimacy and the ability to severely damage the Iranian regime and its nuclear program,” Naftali Bennett, a hawkish former prime minister, said in a video statement released Tuesday.

Such talk has alarmed U.S. officials, who have reportedly urged Israel to avoid nuclear installations and assets in any counterstrike. That message is expected to be underscored on Wednesday, when Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant meets in Washington with his U.S. counterpart, Lloyd J. Austin III.

With the threat of Israeli retaliation hanging over the country, the mood in Tehran and other major cities has been tense. Israel is widely believed to possess a stockpile of nuclear weapons, but has never made a formal acknowledgment.

Many Iranians, though, view Israel’s capabilities as a danger.

“Look, a country with a nuclear arsenal is … threatening to bomb our cities,” said a 55-year-old teacher in the capital who wanted to be identified only by his first name, Ahmad. Like others, he didn’t think Iran had much to lose by developing nuclear weapons as a deterrent.

“We have already paid an extremely heavy price for our civilian nuclear programs — we are under enormous sanctions already,” he said.

Experts said more hawkish views often come to the forefront at times of regional strife.

“This is not the first time such sentiments are running high in Iran,” said Modjtaba Najafi, a Paris-based researcher and lecturer at Sorbonne University. Whenever security concerns rise, “such voices get louder and louder, and are not necessarily in support of the ruling establishment.”

There is no reliable domestic polling within Iran on support for a civilian or military nuclear program, but newfound bullishness on nuclear weapons development would represent a historic shift — albeit one that had been in the making even before the current surge in tensions.

“Public opinion polls since the mid-2000s have consistently demonstrated that while Iranians favored a peaceful nuclear program, a majority of them opposed developing nuclear weapons,” Harvard scholar Peyman Asadzade wrote in a June paper for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

But he said a survey this past spring, in which he collaborated with the Toronto-based company IranPoll, “suggests that Iranian citizens are growing more receptive to nuclear weapons.”

In Isfahan, the ancient architectural jewel in central Iran that is home to the country’s major nuclear installations and enrichment sites, a 44-year-old university lecturer who wanted to be identified only as Masoud F. said that he had been a staunch backer of the 2015 nuclear accord but that he and others were swayed by the recent escalation.

In 2018, when Trump abandoned the accord, only about 1 in 10 people he spoke with thought that Iran should pursue nuclear weapons — but now, he said, the number has increased at least fivefold.

He said anecdotal encounters bear that out.

“I went to a shop yesterday in my neighborhood — the shopkeeper and a student were both talking in favor of nuclear weapons,” he said.

Other Iranians, however, foresaw only greater escalation — and more economic suffering — should Iran choose that path.

“I think Iran needs reconciliation and de-escalation with the world,” said Saman Jam, a 43 year-old business manager. “We already have enough deterrent measures at our disposal; our conventional army and missiles program are enough for deterrence.”

Mehrdad Khadir, an editor at Iran’s AsrIran News website, said he believed an economic downturn and a sense of international deadlock had fueled hawkish views on weapons development.

“I don’t think the government and the establishment will be affected by such sentiments, at least in the short term,” he said.

Others felt that since ordinary Iranians suffer the repercussions of sanctions whether or not the country actively pursues nuclear weapons capability, there is little to lose by pressing ahead and gaining a means of deterrence.

“I think no country should have an atomic bomb, but now that some countries in the region have it and threaten us, it would be very silly of us not to have it,” said Reza Gorji, a 29-year-old engineer.

“As a Persian proverb says, ‘We’ve lost both ways.’”

Khazani is a special correspondent. Times staff writer King reported from Washington.