Harris' saying Poland may be next if Ukraine loses war resonates with Poles

Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris gestures during presidential debate.

By Vanessa Gera and Monika Scislowska

Sept. 11, 2024 9:14 AM PT

WARSAW, Poland — Wanda Kwiatkowska eagerly read reports on Wednesday morning about the U.S. presidential debate — and they convinced her that a second Trump presidency would be a grave threat to her home of Poland and the larger region.

Former President Trump twice refused to directly answer a question during the debate about whether he wanted U.S. ally Ukraine to win the war. Meanwhile, Vice President Kamala Harris praised U.S. and NATO support for Ukraine in its fight against Russia’s invasion so far — and called for it to continue.

“Otherwise, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin would be sitting in Kyiv with his eyes on the rest of Europe. Starting with Poland,” she said.

That’s an argument that many in Poland make themselves, and it resonated Wednesday in the nation of 38 million people whose geography makes it particularly sensitive to the debate. The NATO member is wedged between partners in the European Union in the west and, to the east, the Russian region of Kaliningrad, Russian ally Belarus and Ukraine.

As a result, the war is always present in Poland, whether from occasional accidental incursions into Polish airspace or the large numbers of refugees who have settled there.

Fears that Putin could prevail in Ukraine and then turn his sights on areas of central Europe once under Moscow’s control — including the Baltic states of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia — have been present since Russia first illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. They have grown more acute following the full-scale invasion of Ukraine on Feb. 24, 2022, particularly at times when Russia has had the momentum on the battlefield.

If Ukraine loses, Putin “will take further steps,” said Kwiatkowska, a 75-year-old resident of Warsaw whose Ukrainian mother and Polish father met after World War II.

She was particularly dismissive of Trump’s claim in Tuesday night’s debate that he could easily end the war. “I will get it settled before I even become president,” Trump said.

“Just empty words,” she scoffed, pulling a grocery cart as she did her morning shopping in Warsaw, a capital that, like cities in Ukraine today, was bombed to near destruction during World War II.

Sławomir Dębski, a professor of strategy and international affairs at the College of Europe in Natolin, also found it “far-fetched” for Trump to claim he could force Putin and Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky to the negotiating table before he even entered the White House.

“There’s little reason to believe Putin would agree to such a meeting unless Ukraine were prepared to capitulate, which would be unlikely,” Dębski said. In fact, Putin earlier this year insisted Ukraine must give up vast amounts of territory and avoid joining NATO simply as a condition to start negotiations.

Dębski contended that it was a “clear mistake” on Trump’s part not to say outright that he wants Ukraine to win the war. But he also argued that the Biden administration has made a mistake because it “committed itself to help Ukraine as long as it takes, but refused to state that it should mean Ukraine’s victory.”

When Trump first won the presidency, there was strong enthusiasm for him in Poland, from the government and public. The conservative authorities in power at the time shared many of his positions, particularly in their opposition to migration. Poland, one of the largest spenders of defense among NATO allies, also welcomed his push that other allies pay more on defense themselves.

Today’s government of Prime Minister Donald Tusk has made its critical views of Trump known. And with the brutal war in Ukraine, many Poles have soured on Trump, who has a history of admiring comments about Putin.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov dismissed the back-and-forth in the debate, saying “the name Putin is used, let’s say, as one of the tools in the domestic political struggle of the United States.”

Dębski noted that Trump’s praise for Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, arguably Putin’s closest ally in the European Union and NATO, is also unlikely to sit well with many Poles.

Trump called Orbán “a tough person, smart.”

Andrzej Nowak, a 67-year-old resident of Warsaw, said he views Putin as a danger to the region, and says that if Russia wins in Ukraine, Poland could one day face Russian troops on its border.

“It’s important for Poland that Ukraine wins,” Nowak said. “Because there is no telling what this madman will come up with.”

Gera and Scislowska write for the Associated Press.