NFL Week 6 picks: Broncos will prevail over Justin Herbert and the Chargers

Los Angeles Times NFL writer Sam Farmer examines the matchups this week. Lines according to FanDuel Sportsbook (O/U = over/under). Record last week 10-4 (.714); season 45-33 (.577). Using point spreads with the scores Farmer predicted, the record against the spread last week would have been 8-6 (.571); season 40-37-1 (.520). Times Pacific. Off: Rams, Chiefs, Dolphins, Vikings.

San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Deebo Samuel runs with the ball against the Arizona Cardinals on Oct. 6.

(Scot Tucker / Associated Press)

Thursday, 5:15. TV: Amazon Prime Video

Line: 49ers by 3½. O/U: 48½.

The 49ers, who have lost three of four, are finding new ways to squander games. Now they’re breaking in a new kicker. They have had get-it-figured-out games in Seattle before, though, and will do that here.

Pick: 49ers 27, Seahawks 23

Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams runs with the ball during a win over the Carolina Panthers on Oct. 6.

(Kamil Krzaczynski / Associated Press)

Sunday, 6:30 a.m. TV: NFL Network

Line: Bears by 1½ O/U: 44½

Jacksonville’s offense woke up against Indianapolis, but the Colts have the league’s worst defense. Chicago’s defense is considerably better. Still, familiarity matters with these international games (game at London).

Pick: Jaguars 23, Bears 20

Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson passes against the Cincinnati Bengals on Oct. 6.

(Carolyn Kaster / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Sunday Ticket

Line: Ravens by 6½. O/U: 52½

The Commanders have averaged 38 points the last three weeks, and rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels is getting better by the game. The Ravens are hot too, though, and have the upper hand in experience.

Pick: Ravens 34, Commanders 27

Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love tries to throw a pass during a win over the Rams on Oct. 6.

(Wally Skalij / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: Channel: Fox

Line: Packers by 5½. O/U: 49½.

Whereas the Cardinals are a bit all over the map, the Packers are winning the games they’re supposed to win. That’s the mark of a solidifying team. An upset is certainly possible, but Green Bay should hold on at home.

Pick: Packers 28, Cardinals 24

Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud looks to pass against the Buffalo Bills on Oct. 6.

(Eric Gay / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Sunday Ticket

Line: Texans by 7. O/U: 38½.

In the last three weeks — all New England losses — the Patriots have scored three, 13 and 10 points. The Texans are solid and have proven over and over they know how to win close games. This won’t be as close.

Pick: Texans 27, Patriots 13

Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Baker Mayfield looks to pass against the Atlanta Falcons on Oct. 3.

(Danny Karnik / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Sunday Ticket

Line: Saints by 3½. O/U: 41½.

After a red-hot start, the Saints have cooled offensively in their last two games and will be without injured quarterback Derek Carr. Tampa Bay is coming off a high-scoring overtime loss at Atlanta in which Baker Mayfield played great. Leaning toward the visitor.

Pick: Buccaneers 27, Saints 24

Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints in Sept. 22.

(Tyler Kaufman / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Sunday Ticket

Line: Eagles by 8½. O/U: 43½.

The Eagles are rested after an off week and could be getting receiver A.J. Brown back from his hamstring injury. The Browns have lost three in a row and have yet to score more than 18 points.

Pick: Eagles 28, Browns 16

Indianapolis Colts quarterback Joe Flacco, right, calls out signals against the Jacksonville Jaguars on Oct. 6.

(Phelan M. Ebenhack / Associated Press)

Sunday, 10 a.m. TV: NFL Sunday Ticket

Line: Colts by 1½. O/U: 43½.

Quarterbacks Will Levis of Tennessee and Anthony Richardson of Indianapolis both are optimistic they can return for this. “Oh ... yay,” say their fan bases, whose teams are better when starting backups.

Pick: Colts 24, Titans 21

Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert passes against the Las Vegas Raiders on Sept. 8.

(Robert Gauthier / Los Angeles Times)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: CBS, Paramount+

Line: Chargers by 3. O/U: 35½.

The Chargers need to restart their run game, but that won’t be easy against a Broncos defense that’s clicking nicely. Denver got off to a bumpy start but has won three in a row and is gathering momentum.

Pick: Broncos 20, Chargers 18

Las Vegas Raiders wide receiver Jakobi Meyers tries to make a catch against the Denver Broncos on Oct. 6.

(Bart Young / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:05 p.m. TV: NFL Sunday Ticket

Line: Steelers by 3. O/U: 36½.

The Steelers are coming off a spirit-crushing, last-second loss to Dallas and QB Justin Fields had an uneven performance; this week could mark the return of veteran Russell Wilson. The Raiders, who are benching quarterback Gardner Minshew and turning to Aidan O’Connell, are wildly inconsistent.

Pick: Raiders 21, Steelers 20

Atlanta Falcons quarterback Kirk Cousins warms up before a game against the New Orleans Saints on Sept. 29.

(John Bazemore / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: NFL Sunday Ticket

Line: Falcons by 6½. O/U: 47½.

Two teams heading in opposite directions. A win would give the Falcons three consecutive victories within the NFC South. The Panthers didn’t do anything particularly well in their loss at Chicago last week.

Pick: Falcons 28, Panthers 21

Detroit Lions quarterback Jared Goff looks to pass against the Seattle Seahawks on Sept. 30.

(Paul Sancya / Associated Press)

Sunday, 1:25 p.m. TV: Fox

Line: Lions by 3. O/U: 52 ½.

QB Jared Goff is coming off a brilliant game for the Lions, but Detroit’s defense leaves a lot to be desired. The Cowboys lurched to victory at Pittsburgh despite three turnovers. This figures to be high-scoring.

Pick: Lions 31, Cowboys 27

Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase catches a touchdown pass against the Baltimore Ravens on Oct. 6.

(Jeff Dean / Associated Press)

Sunday, 5:20 p.m. TV: NBC, Peacock, Universo

Line: Bengals by 3½. O/U: 48½.

The Giants are coming off their most complete performance in a win at Seattle. Cincinnati went down to the wire against Baltimore, and Joe Burrow is starting to look like the excellent quarterback we know.

Pick: Bengals 28, Giants 24

New York Jets quarterback Aaron Rodgers warms up before a game against the Minnesota Vikings on Oct. 6.

(Ian Walton / Associated Press)

Monday, 5:15 p.m. TV: ESPN

Line: Bills by 2½. O/U: 40½.

Both teams are riding two-game losing streaks and looking to get back on track. Neither offense is really clicking. Teams frequently get a bump when they make a change at coach, which the Jets did on Tuesday.

Pick: Bills 27, Jets 23