Horse racing newsletter: Santa Anita’s Belmont trifecta

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we get a handicapping lesson from Rob Henie.

Let’s check in with the three Southern California horses set to run in the Belmont Stakes. If one of them wins, it would mean that in all three Triple Crown races, a Santa Anita-based horse crossed the finish line first. (And, yes, that wording was intentional, pending lots of legal action.)

Rombauer: The Preakness winner worked a half-mile on Friday over the Belmont surface with a new jockey, the Hall of Famer John Velazquez. Flavien Prat rode the colt in the Preakness but elected to go with Hot Rod Charlie, whom he rode in the Kentucky Derby. He was clocked in 50.01 seconds over the four furlongs.

“I was very happy with the work,” trainer Michael McCarthy told NYRA communications. “I just wanted him to go ahead and get familiar with Johnny. He went in 13.2, 25.4 and 50 and 2. He came through the lane nicely and galloped out from the wire to the mile-and-three-eighths pole in 12 and 2, so I’m happy with everything I saw.

“It seemed like he was well in hand at all times. Johnny asked him to gallop out a little bit going underneath the wire and the horse seemed to respond nicely. I’m very happy with what I saw.”

Rombauer arrived at Belmont the Monday after the Preakness.

“One of the nice things about him is his mind is very good and he’s very comfortable wherever he’s at,” McCarthy said. “He’ll … get back to it again on Sunday.

“I’m just hoping for a good six or seven days here. The horse is in a nice rhythm and I hope all the participants get into the starting gate as well as they can and we just settle it on the racetrack. That’s all you want in any of these big races. You just want everybody to get there in good shape.”

Hot Rod Charlie: The third-place finisher in the Kentucky Derby had a five-furlong work Friday in 1:00.48. Prat was on board as the colt did splits of 24.06 and 48.32 and passed workmate Liam’s Pride about an eighth of a mile from the wire.

“Very happy with his breeze,” trainer Doug O’Neill told Santa Anita publicity. “Flavien was happy with the way he did it and that makes me happy. He had a good, strong gallop going into this work and now he’s got a strong work and gallop-out going into the race.

“We just want to stay injury-free and we’re pumped up and optimistic about [the race]. This horse is getting more and more confident and he’s starting to separate himself from the others.”

Lava Man accompanied Hot Rod Charlie to New York.

Rock Your World: The winner of the Santa Anita Derby worked a bullet five furlongs Friday in 58.40. There were 32 running that distance with an average time of 1:01.28.

“It was a good work,” trainer John Sadler told Santa Anita publicity. Rock Your World shipped to New York on Saturday.

Rock Your World had a horrible beginning in the Kentucky Derby and was crashed into by Essential Quality. He finished 17th. “We hope to right the ship in the Belmont,” Sadler said.

Here are the potential starters in Saturday’s Belmont Stakes.

Probable: Bourbonic (trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey Kendrick Carmouche); Brooklyn Strong (Danny Velazquez, Jose Ortiz); Essential Quality (Brad Cox, Luis Saez); France Go de Ina (Hideyuki Mori, Ricardo Santana, Jr.), Hot Rod Charlie (O’Neill, Prat); Known Agenda (Pletcher, Irad Ortiz Jr.); Overtook (Pletcher, Manny Franco); Rebel’s Romance (Charlie Appleby, Mike Smith), Rock Your World (Sadler, Joel Rosario), Rombauer (McCarthy, John Velazquez).

Possible: Keepmeinmind (Robertino Diodoro, David Cohen)

Weekly handicapping lesson

It’s time for our weekly handicapping lesson from Rob Henie of the WCHR (West Coast Handicapping Report) and the ECHR (East Coast Handicapping Report). Today’s analysis comes from the sixth race at Santa Anita and incorporates some handicapping angles into the mix. Rob, take it away.

“This is a bottom-level $20,000 maiden claimer at 6½ furlongs. At the low levels, tactics are typically not a handicapping factor we give much credence to, meaning, we’re not looking for the horse who can rate before finishing. After all, if they were useful and handy from a versatility standpoint, they likely wouldn’t be running for a low-level tag. As a general rule, low-level runners are going up and down in the late going.

“With this in mind, top selection is SWEET SONNY (#9) for Brian Koriner and Jay Em Ess Stable. She has legitimate early speed out of the gate, thus, the following ECHR/WCHR Handicapping Angle fits her well. In a cheap field lacking much talent, we like to find the likely leader at the ¼ pole, which has led to numerous winners for members of both the WCHR and ECHR. In a weak field, very few runners are making up ground down the lane. If the front runner at the ¼ pole can be established, they’re often an excellent candidate to go wire to wire. Even if this front runner begins to weaken, they’ll simply be backpedaling in front of other regressing runners. This will present the illusion of a horse on the front end who’s ‘finding more’ when in actuality the entire field is going backward.

“Look for Jessica Pyfer to push for the front end while simply doing enough to maintain the edge up front. If the runner from the three LIFE’S EMOTIONS (#3) hits the front out of the gate, things immediately lean to her favor, as the exact angle we mentioned above, would apply to her as well. One other note, whichever runner does indeed make it to the front end, they can turn the other runner into the role of a ‘chaser,’ and horses who aren’t accustomed to that role, more often than not, will end up spitting the bit, just not comfortable chasing others. This one is also off the rail for the first time, and that’s never a bad thing with runners beginning their career regardless of age.

“Hot / Cold Race Trends: none

“Win Contenders (order of preference): 9-3

“X Out Runners (eliminating on the win end): 5,6,7,8

“Negative Notes:

4 My Tigress — The fact she was moved from the Richard Baltas barn and moved to the Javier Jose Sierra barn, not to mention being dropped to the bottom, isn’t exactly a ringing endorsement despite Umberto Rispoli taking the call. Despite the drop and Rispoli, we’re gonna try to beat based more on the posturing from her connections.

10 Mamma Rama — When Andrew Lerner returned off the layoff at the bottom level, he knew the placement likely would keep another from claiming, but the fact they now return at the same level following a close third, rather than try better, isn’t exactly an endorsement.

“First Timers:

1 Can Fly — Will need the effort here today.

“TOP PICK: SWEET SONNY (#9 9-5 Pyfer)

“SECOND CHOICE: LIFE’S EMOTION (#3 6-1 Ellingwood)”

The West Coast Handicapping Report can be found at www.westcoasthorseracing.com It has been endorsed by leading trainers, handicappers and industry sources.

Santa Anita review

There were three stakes races on the Saturday card. Let’s look at them.

Grade 3 $100,000 Daytona Stakes: It’s always a great story when an 8-year-old gelding wins a stakes race, and that’s exactly what happened when Bombard won the 6½-furlong turf race for older horses. He went gate to wire but did have to battle Law Abidin Citizen in the stretch before winning by 1¼ lengths.

Bombard paid $3.40, $2.80 and $2.10. Majestic Eagle was second, followed by Commander, Law Abidin Citizen and Jamming Eddy.

Richard Mandella (winning trainer): “He’s as good as he’s ever been for sure. I don’t race him much, he’s got a few problems that we have to take care of, but he comes back and he pays us back. We’ll keep doing that as long as he’s having a good time and so are we. Both [Bombard and United] are old geldings and are just big pets around the barn. When you walk by they usually stop, looking for a mint.”

Prat (winning jockey): “He broke really well and put himself in the race. He ran his race. I don’t think the blinkers on had anything to do with his race. I love to win.”

Grade 2 $200,000 Charlies Whittingham Stakes: There were only four starters in this 1¼-mile turf race, which should make picking the winner easier. But heavy favorite United never fired and finished last as Award Winner rallied in mid-stretch to win by a head over front-running Acclimate.

Award Winner paid $15.40 and $7.80. There was no show betting, which was likely a good thing for show-playing “bridge jumpers” with United finishing fourth. The only horse not mentioned, Red King, was third.

David Hofmans (winning trainer): “When he first got here, I didn’t think he was gonna like it here. But apparently, he liked it here better than he did back East. Something with the climate; maybe he likes the warm weather. I don’t know. From Day 1 he just started blossoming. Each week he got stronger, he got heavier, he ate more and he was enjoying his training. I think it’s just a change in location, which was important to him. I was so happy when [the owner] asked me to take the horse because I wanted to train [Devine Actress’] offspring, because they are all wonderful. It’s kind of a dream come true.”

Juan Hernandez (winning jockey): “This was a really big win for us. I knew that horse [Acclimate] had a lot of speed, so I let him go and my horse relaxed. I waited until the quarter pole and asked him one time and he really picked it up and made a huge move in the stretch. I was worried about the other horses [United and Red King], but they never touched us.”

Grade 2 $200,000 Triple Bend Stakes: Again, the favorite was beaten and jockey Hernandez guided the winner home first in the seven-furlong race. Magic on Tap ran a smart stalking race and went three wide into the stretch to win by two lengths. In this case, it was the “other Baffert” play.

Magic on Tap paid $13.20, $6.00 and $3.00. Shooters Shoot was second, followed by Exaulted, Eight Rings and Lambeau.

Bob Baffert (winning trainer): “I was afraid of a speed duel, where we would wear each other out. Eight Rings was coming off a long layoff, so with fractions like that, it was crazy. I threw the other horse [Magic On Tap] in there. I was looking for an allowance race for the horse and then I decided to throw him into the stakes race. He is bred to be a good one. It was good to get a stakes win for him after he disappointed in the Californian. He is still a little green, but he has been working really well. I was disappointed in Eight Rings, but you gotta get the trip. I thought we could run 1-2 today.”

Hernandez (winning jockey): “Bob told me the horse was training really good, so break well, and it looked like there was going to be a little bit of speed in the race, so try to follow them and that’s what I did. My horse, he helped me a lot, he broke really sharp and I was behind the speed all the race and then when I hit the quarter pole, I asked him to go and he responded really well.”

Santa Anita preview

The Sunday card, penultimate of the race week, is nine races starting at 1 p.m. There are the mostly usual more turf races than dirt (all the odd-numbered ones). There is one stakes, one allowance/optional claimer and four Cal-bred only races.

The stakes is the Grade 2 $200,000 Summertime Oaks for 3-year-old fillies going 1-1/16 miles. The field size is a sad five. The favorite, at 4-5, is Soothsay for Mandella and Prat (You’ve seen that combo a lot). She is undefeated in two starts and is coming off a half-length win in the Santa Anita Oaks. The second favorite is Crazy Beautiful at 6-5 for Kenny McPeek and Mike Smith. Crazy Beautiful is a shipper having last run in the Kentucky Oaks, finishing 10th. The race before she won the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She has won three of eight starts with three seconds.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 6, 8 (2 also eligible), 10, 6, 11, 10, 7, 5, 10.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

FIRST RACE: No. 2 Diva’s Finale (-1)

Diva’s Finale is nothing on paper. Four career races for this horse that cost $100,000 have resulted in three different trainers claiming, the latest being O’Neill from a six-furlong dirt race two weeks ago. O’Neill is winning 26% first off the claim and moves back to turf Sunday. Rispoli rides and at 15-1 anything this jockey rides on turf, especially at a price, is worth looking at and betting on. Blinkers come off and there is a six-pound weight break as O’Neill races this horse against 3-year-olds. If O’Neill likes this move and Rispoli is riding at this value, how can I ignore it?

Saturday’s result: Super Game came flying a little too late from too far back to run second. Rispoli won’t make that mistake next time, especially if they go longer, so make a note. Game paid $3.40 for place.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races review

A look at stakes worth $100,000 or more Saturday.

Churchill Downs (5): $150,000 Audubon Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1-1/8 miles on the turf. Winner: Cellist ($7.60)

Churchill Downs (6): $150,000 Blame Stakes, 4 and up, 1-1/8 miles. Winner: Mighty Heart ($21.40)

Churchill Downs (7): $150,000 Shawnee Stakes, fillies and mares 4 and up, 1-1/16 miles. Winner: Envoutante ($2.80)

Churchill Downs (8): Grade 3 $150,000 Regret Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1-1/8 miles on turf. Winner: Gam’s Mission ($14.20)

Churchill Downs (9): Grade 3 $150,000 Matt Winn Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1-1/16 miles. Winner: Fulsome ($5.40)

Belmont (9): Grade 2 $200,000 Pennine Ridge Stakes, 3-year-olds, 1-1/8 miles on turf. Winner: Sainthood ($3.80)

Churchill Downs (10): $150,000 Aristides Stakes, 4 and up, 6 furlongs. Winner: Bango ($10.60)

Churchill Downs (11): $110,000 Douglas Park Overnight Stakes, 4 and up, 1-1/16 miles on turf. Winner: Set Piece ($4.40)

Santa Anita (5): Grade 3 $100,000 Daytona Stakes, 4 and up, 6½ furlongs on turf. Winner: Bombard ($3.40)

Santa Anita (7): Grade 2 $200,000 Charles Whittingham Stakes, 3 and up, 1¼ miles on turf. Winner: Award Winner ($15.40)

Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 $200,000 Triple Bend Stakes, 4 and up, 7 furlongs. Winner: Magic on Tap ($13.20)

Big races preview

A look at stakes worth $100,000 or more Sunday. All times PST.

1:40 Belmont (8): $100,000 Paradise Creek Stakes, 3-year-olds, 7 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Outadore (8-5)

4:52 Santa Anita (8): Grade 2 Summertime Oaks, fillies 3-years-old, 1-1/16 miles. Favorite: Soothsay (4-5)

Chris Wade’s L.A. pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 9 Stel Favorite (9-2)

This nicely bred gelding finished strongly for second against a quality group when earning a solid charting for this level. This runner also had prepped strongly in morning drills, posting works that I gave A- and B grades. This shedrow consistently does very well with freshmen runners in their second start year-in and year-out and with an expected step forward in just his second career start, I’ll confidently back in this trial featuring just one maiden winner among the bunch.

And now the stars of the show, Saturday’s results and Sunday’s entries.