Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s final Preakness rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we preview the second leg of the Triple Crown.

Before we get to the good stuff. Let’s catch you up on the saga surrounding Medina Spirit.

Here are a couple stories I wrote since we were last together.

Top vets explain what betamethasone is all about. Just click here.

Bob Baffert isolates possible cause of medication positive. Just click here.

And if you want to relive video of the Kentucky Derby, just click here.

Jon White’s Preakness rankings

Here we are with the final rankings for Saturday’s Preakness Stakes. Jon White does them for us. He’s one of the foremost historians on horse racing as well as being the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He even has done stints as a steward. He does it all. So, let’s get right to it with the final word on the Preakness. It’s brought to you courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Take it away, Jon.

“The 146th running of the $1 million Preakness Stakes will be run Saturday at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. Ten are slated to run in the 1 3/16-mile classic. Below is how I rank them, starting with the horse I believe has the best chance to win.

“1. CONCERT TOUR. Post position 10. Morning-line odds 5-2. Trainer Bob Baffert. Jockey Mike Smith.

“In early April (after Life Is Good had been sidelined by a hind ankle injury), Concert Tour was widely considered to be Baffert’s top contender for the Kentucky Derby. But then Concert Tour ran third as an overwhelming 3-10 favorite in the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park on April 10. It was Concert Tour’s first defeat in four starts.

“Shortly after Concert Tour’s setback in the Arkansas Derby, the decision was made by Baffert and owners Gary and Mary West to skip the Kentucky Derby with the Kentucky-bred Street Sense colt. ‘Concert Tour out. Wait for Preakness,’ Baffert texted Churchill Downs officials regarding the Run for the Roses. After such a disappointing loss in the Arkansas Derby, the thinking was Concert Tour needed more time than the three weeks between that race and the Kentucky Derby. ‘Three weeks just wasn’t enough to really feel comfortable to go’ to the Kentucky Derby, Baffert explained. ‘And Gary West really didn’t feel comfortable running in the Derby after a race like that’ by Concert Tour in the Arkansas Derby.

“Consequently, Concert Tour is going into the Preakness fresher than Medina Spirit. Whereas Medina Spirit is being asked to race again just two weeks after the Kentucky Derby, it will have been five weeks since Concert Tour’s last start.

“Concert Tour registered a front-running 4 1/4-length victory in Oaklawn’s Rebel Stakes on March 13. ‘To me, it was kind of an American Pharoah-type run,’ Baffert said. “He was doing it with ease, with plenty left.’ That was high praise. In 2015, the Baffert-trained American Pharoah won the Rebel and Arkansas Derby before taking the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to end a 37-year Triple Crown drought.

“In the Rebel, Concert Tour dashed immediately to the front. Don’t be surprised if he likewise seizes the early lead Saturday. If Concert Tour does get the early lead, it will force Medina Spirit to have to try and win the race from off the pace. The two races in which Medina Spirit did not get the early lead this year, he lost both times, finishing second.

“2. MEDINA SPIRIT. Post position 3. Morning-line favorite at odds of 9-5. Trainer Bob Baffert. Jockey John Velazquez.

“Medina Spirit is the official winner of the 2021 Kentucky Derby winner … for now. His status as such is in serious jeopardy after Baffert’s announcement last Sunday that the Florida-bred Protonico colt had tested positive for 21 picograms of the corticosteroid betamethasone, a legal therapeutic medication that is not allowed to be in a horse’s system in a race. Baffert initially stated categorically that betamethasone had ‘never’ been administered to Medina Spirit. But the trainer then said Tuesday that because Medina Spirit had ‘developed dermatitis on his hind end’ after finishing second in the April 3 Santa Anita Derby, the colt had been treated with ‘an anti-fungal ointment called Otomax,’ which does contain betamethasone. In light of that revelation, it now seems highly likely that Medina Spirit is, at some point, going to be disqualified from his Kentucky Derby victory.

“Will Medina Spirit win the Preakness? Will he even run in the Preakness? Baffert and the Maryland Jockey Club reached an agreement Tuesday for Medina Spirit to run in the Preakness, but only if the colt underwent pre-race testing. This means if it turns out that Medina Spirit’s pre-race testing is not satisfactory, he ‘might have to be scratched from Saturday’s race after all,’ Concert Tour is in the same boat.

“Assuming Medina Spirit does get to run in the Preakness, he certainly can win it. After all, prior to this year, all five of Baffert’s Kentucky Derby winners in May (Silver Charm in 1997, Real Quiet in 1998, War Emblem in 2002, American Pharoah in 2015 and Justify in 2015) returned two weeks later to win the Preakness.

“Last year’s Kentucky Derby and Preakness were run later than usual due to the coronavirus pandemic. Baffert won the Sept. 3 Kentucky Derby with Authentic, who then lost the Oct. 5 Preakness by a head to the filly Swiss Skydiver.

“Baffert has won the Preakness seven times. Besides doing so with the aforementioned five Kentucky Derby winners, Baffert won the Preakness with Point Given in 2001 and Lookin At Lucky in 2010. Baffert and R. Wyndham Walden, who won the race seven times from 1875 to 1888, share the Preakness record for most victories by a trainer.

“As mentioned earlier, when Medina Spirit gets the early lead, he is one tough dude to get by. The two races in which Medina Spirit has set the pace this year, he won both times, taking Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes on Jan. 30 and the Kentucky Derby. In the Derby, he refused to relinquish the lead all the way down the stretch while fending off Mandaloun, Hot Rod Charlie and 5-2 favorite Essential Quality, who finished 2-3-4. Baffert said Medina Spirit’s determination during the stretch drive of the Derby ‘was sort of the same race he ran when he won the Robert Lewis.’

“Another reason Medina Spirit merits the utmost respect Saturday is his consistency. He has never finished worse than second in six lifetime starts.

“But a concern regarding Medina Spirit is what he will do if he’s not able to get the early lead. As noted earlier, in his two races this year in which he did not get the early lead, he was unable to win.

“3. MIDNIGHT BOURBON. Post position 5. Morning-line odds 5-1. Trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Irad Ortiz Jr.

“Midnight Bourbon has the look of a Preakness contender. His trainer has two Preakness victories, Curlin in 2007 and the filly Rachel Alexandra in 2009.

“Prior to the Kentucky Derby, Midnight Bourbon had never finished worse than third in seven career starts. But he was taken out of his game when he broke sluggishly and found himself much farther back early than ever before. After being 14th at one point, according to the Equibase chart, he actually did well to finish sixth in the field of 19.

“It looks like Midnight Bourbon will be close up early Saturday. And the Kentucky-bred colt by two-time Breeders’ Cup Classic winner Tiznow just might prove a tough customer all the way to the end.

“4. CROWDED TOUR. Post position 4. Morning-line odds 10-1. Trainer Chad Brown. Jockey Javier Castellano.

“Crowded Tour is light on experience. This will be just his fourth career start. But the Kentucky-bred More Than Ready colt does seem to possess talent.

“Brown won the 2017 Preakness with Cloud Computing. There is a striking similarity between Crowded Tour and Cloud Computing. They both won an Aqueduct maiden race at first asking. They both then finished second in Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes. They both then ran third in the Wood Memorial at the Big A. And they both then started in the Preakness.

“5. KEEPMEINMIND. Post position 2. Morning-line odds 15-1. Trainer Robertino Diodoro. Jockey David Cohen.

“The feeling here is Keepmeinmind is a live longshot. The Kentucky-bred Laoban colt was good enough to finish third in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Oh, sure, he has not finished better than fifth in three starts this year. But he’s been forced to play catch-up ever since he missed some training early in the year when Oaklawn Park was hit by a severe winter storm. His performance in the Kentucky Derby was better than it might seem at first glance. Last among the 19 starters during the initial six furlongs, he rallied to finish seventh. The late zest he exhibited Louisville on May 1 suggests he should not be cavalierly dismissed Saturday in Baltimore.

“6. RISK TAKING. Post position 9. Morning-line odds 15-1. Trainer Chad Brown. Jockey Jose Ortiz.

“Risk Taking was scratched from last Saturday’s Peter Pan Stakes at Belmont Park to go instead in the Preakness. After winning Aqueduct’s Withers Stakes by 3 3/4 lengths on Feb. 6, he was sent off as the 2-1 favorite in the Wood at that track on April 3. Risk Taking never threatened and finished seventh in the Wood. Perhaps he will rebound and give a good account of himself in the Preakness. Brown has talked about how he believes the longer 1 3/16-mile distance of Saturday’s race is going to suit the Kentucky-bred Medaglia d’Oro colt.

“7. ROMBAUER. Post position 6. Morning-line odds 12-1. Trainer Michael McCarthy. Jockey Flavien Prat.

“Rombauer earned an automatic berth in the Preakness by winning the El Camino Real Derby on a synthetic surface Feb. 13 at Golden Gate Fields while making his 2021 debut. In his only subsequent start, the Kentucky-bred Twirling Candy colt finished third in the Blue Grass Stakes on dirt at Keeneland on April 3. It appears he has trained well for the Preakness. Finishing fourth or better Saturday is far from out of the question.

“8. FRANCE GO DE INA. Post position 7. Morning-line odds 20-1. Trainer Hideyuki Mori. Jockey Joel Rosario.

“France Go de Ina is this year’s Preakness wild card. Bred in Kentucky and based in Japan, France Go de Ina will be making his first U.S. start. Runners based in Japan have been doing well in important races on the world stage in recent years.

“In his only 2021 race to date, France Go de Ina lacked early speed after a tardy beginning and finished sixth in the UAE Derby when ridden by Rosario. France Go de Ina won two of three starts in Japan last year. In his two 2020 victories, he set or forced the pace. Will he break well this time and show early zip? What’s especially interesting is rather than jump ship, Rosario is riding the colt again in the Preakness.

“France Go de Ina’s dam is a daughter of 2007 Preakness winner Curlin.

“9. UNBRIDLED HONOR. Post position 8. Morning-line odds 15-1. Trainer Todd Pletcher. Jockey Luis Saez.

“After finishing fourth in the March 6 Tampa Bay Derby, Unbridled Honor ran second on a sloppy track in Keeneland’s April 10 Lexington Stakes. His trainer, who has been elected to the Hall of Fame this year, certainly is a plus. But any way you slice it, a Preakness victory by Unbridled Honor would be a huge upset.

“10. RAM. Post position 1. Morning-line odds 30-1. Trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Jockey Ricardo Santana Jr.

“This is by far Ram’s toughest assignment yet in that he’s making his stakes debut. But Ram is coming into the race with improving form. After losing his first seven starts, Ram has won two in a row. His sire, American Pharoah, won the Preakness during his 2015 Triple Crown sweep.

“Ram is the longest shot on Keith Feustel’s Preakness morning line at 30-1. But keep in mind that Lukas managed to pull off a 15-1 Preakness upset in 2013 with Oxbow. And Lukas has executed a number of other upsets in big races, such as Spain at 55-1 in the 2000 Breeders’ Cup Distaff, Cash Run at 32-1 in the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies, Charismatic at 31-1 in the 1999 Kentucky Derby, Thunder Gulch at 24-1 in the 1995 Kentucky Derby, Cat Thief at 19-1 in the 1999 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Commendable at 18-1 in the 2000 Belmont.”

Santa Anita preview

The Preakness weekend card starts Friday with eight races starting at 1 p.m. Half of the races are on the turf (the odd ones) and there is really nothing that stands out as special. The field size weighs in at an average of 6.125. The feature, and the only allowance/optional claimer on the card, is for Cal-bred 3-year-olds going a mile on the turf. It also has the largest field size of the day with eight. The favorite, at 5-2, is Found My Ball for trainer Doug O’Neill and jockey Mario Gutierrez. This colt is switching to the turf have run only once previously, finishing second. Last out he was fourth the Echo Eddie, although he was subsequently moved to seventh for interference. Big Talker is the 3-1 second choice for Tim Yakteen and Umberto Rispoli. Big Talker has been on the turf for all his races with one win and two seconds. Rispoli picks up the ride from Flavien Prat, who is in Baltimore to ride Rombauer in the Preakness. Post is around 4:21 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 5, 5, 6, 6, 7, 5, 8, 7.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick of the day

SEVENTH RACE: No. 6 Standing O (6-1)

Standing O makes the first start since winning in March for trainer Phil D’Amato, a win that came under step-daughter Jessica Pyfer. Moving up in class on Saturday at the same distance as the win last out and the horse races protected. D’Amato is heating up at the meet and winning 25%. When this tandem who has won five of nine and eight of nine in the money. In a card with no value this 6-1 is attractive.

Sunday’s result: Fight On broke nicely and tracked in third but deep stretch ran out of room. Next out this horse should do much better

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Big races preview

A look at thoroughbred graded stakes or races worth $100,000 or more on Friday. All times PDT.

12:07 Pimlico (8): Grade 3 $150,000Allaire Dupont Distaff Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 1 1/8 miles. Favorite: Horologist (3-1)

12:38 Pimlico (9): $100,000 Very One Stakes, fillies and mares 3 and up, 5 furlongs on turf. Favorite: Dixieincandyland (3-1)

1:09 Pimlico (10): Grade 3 $150,000 Miss Preakness Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 6 furlongs. Favorite: Abrogate (7-2)

1:40 Pimlico (11): $100,000 Hilltop Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 1 mile on turf. Favorite: Bubbles on Ice (7-2)

2:12 Pimlico (12): Grade 3 $250,000 Pimlico Special Stakes, 3 and up, 1 3/16 miles. Favorite: Fearless (9-5)

2:44 Pimlico (13): Grade 3 $250,000 Black Eyed Susan Stakes, fillies 3-years-old, 11/8 miles. Favorite: Beautiful Gift (9-5)

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only game in town at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“The grandstand building and Vessels Club at Los Alamitos will both be open at 7 a.m. on Saturday for simulcasting of Preakness Stakes Day. Burgart’s will open at 9 a.m. Tickets for both day and nighttime live racing at Los Alamitos can be purchased online at LosAlamitos.com.

“The featured quarter-horse race of the weekend will be on Sunday evening with the Grade 2, Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity at 300 yards. Jaime Gomez, who already holds the stakes record with eighth training victories, will saddle three solid contenders in trial winners Southern Best, Docs Fast Lane and FG Jess Seis. As far as his Kindergarten success, Gomez has said that finding precocious quarter horses in the mental aspects of racing is a big key.

“’When we start [training] horses, I look for the horses that are catching on fast,’ Gomez said. ‘The horses that are smart and figure things out quickly, those are the ones that we point to the Kindergarten. With this [futurity] being early in the year, you want horses with good minds.’

“La Amore Blue will be one of the favorites as the filly won both of her career starts impressively, confidently, and professionally. Of the last 10 Kindergarten winners, seven have been fillies, including the Gomez-trained La Jaconde last year. Another filly, Val Frida, enters with the fastest qualifying time after being the surprise of trial night.

“Gotta Corona Jess, who was ridden to victory by the returning Jesus Rios Ayala in her last start, joins a group of 3-year-olds in the featured 330-yard, $13,200 allowance on Friday. The Apollitical Jess filly will face recent allowance runner-up Makalerina as well as Apollitical Honey, who has finished third or better in six-of-nine career starts. First post for the eight-race card is 6 p.m.

“On Saturday night, BF Outfoosed, who qualified in four major stakes at Los Alamitos the past year, will headline the featured $13,300 allowance on Saturday night. There are eight races with a first post at about 6:40 p.m. BF Outfoosed enters the 350-yard event after posting the best stakes placing of his career when running third in the Grade 3, El Primero Del Año Derby on March 29. The Utah-bred gelding left the gate sharply at the start of the El Primero and fought for a top spot until the longshot Favorite Colossus came flying to win the race in an upset. He also looked good when winning his derby trial outing on March 7. He has also qualified to the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million, Grade 2 PCQHRA Breeders, and Governor’s Cup futurities during his career.

“Two longtime members of the Los Alamitos Race Course racing family passed away on Saturday. Roberto Dominguez, 68, a trainer who had based his stable at the California track for 20 years, died on Saturday morning after a battle with cancer. Neil Bricks, one of the most successful agents ever at Los Alamitos and a mainstay for more than 45 years, died at his home later that evening. He was 69.

“Dominguez, who had trained at Los Alamitos since 2001, won 163 quarter-horse races and trained such horses as the three-time graded stakes winner Materialist. Dominguez was diagnosed with stomach cancer recently and had been hospitalized. One of the last horses to race with his name listed as trainer was the thoroughbred mare Elemental in the second race on May 7.

“A New York native, Bricks worked at Los Alamitos as a groom, exercise rider, jockey, mutuel clerk and then as one of the track’s top jockey agents. His riders included Ramon Guce, Los Alamitos’ all-time leading thoroughbred rider, Cesar De Alba, Eddie Garcia, Ramon Sanchez, Vinnie Bednar and many others.

“’As an agent, he was part of the racing team,” said Scott Craigmyle, the track’s director of racing and stable superintendent. “It’s a big loss. Those agents help fill the races and we all have a common goal, to put together a good racing card. … He was here every day, and we talked every night. He was around at Los Alamitos forever and he’ll be sorely missed.’”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

FOURTH RACE: No. 2 Famous N Royal (7-2)

She represents the solid shed row of trainer Mike Casselman, who consistently does well with 2-year-olds like this filly by One Famous Eagle. Famous N Royal went better than looked when fourth in her debut after prepping nicely with a B grade workout. In her debut, this filly rambunctious in the gate prior to breaking slow and inward while getting brushed by a rival and then getting crossed by quicker rivals to lose almost two lengths. After losing her racing momentum, she showed a nice turn of foot to garner the trifecta placing and did so on her own. With the edge of having race experience edge and many of her rivals with questions to answer of their own, I’ll push this runner steadily at what should be a nice price.

And now the star of the show, Friday’s entries.