Horse racing newsletter: Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome back to our horse racing newsletter as we marvel at the recuperative powers of the Santa Anita grass course.

Just another reminder that there is no live racing at Santa Anita on Friday … but simulcast facilities at the track remain open.

The track said it was suspending racing on two Fridays, which was on the schedule from the start, giving the turf course a two-week rest but, guess what? There are two turf races on the Saturday card and three on the Sunday card after having none last weekend. Again, helping the turf course was the reason given for no racing on two consecutive Fridays. The rationale wasn’t a smaller than hoped for horse population or some other reason.

Guess the turf didn’t really need as much rest as we were led to believe it did.

I guess it’s my fault for taking the Stronach people at face value with that explanation without double-checking. The turf races were in the Condition Book all along. So, all I can assume is that track officials knew the course would be in tip-top shape after only 12 days instead of the 18 people believed it was looking at getting.

If you think the excruciatingly long Santa Anita season needs a pause, then just say so and take a one- or two-week break. Stop trying to spin us.

Now, on to the good stuff.

Jon White’s Kentucky Derby rankings

Jon White is back with his Triple Crown rankings. Jon is one of the foremost historians on horse racing as well as being the morning-line maker at Santa Anita and Del Mar. He even has done stints as a steward. He does it all. So, let’s get right to it with his Kentucky Derby rankings as we have completed all the Derby preps. It’s brought to you courtesy of Xpressbet.com. Take it away, Jon.

“Going into last Saturday’s 1 1/8-mile Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park, Concert Tour was being talked about as potentially being the favorite in the 147th running of the $3 million Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.

“But after Concert Tour figuratively stubbed his toe to finish third as a 3-10 favorite last Saturday, it’s now clear that undefeated Eclipse Award winner Essential Quality has a firm grip on the role of favorite in terms of this year’s Run for the Roses.

“Prior to the Arkansas Derby, Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee had Essential Quality listed as a 5-2 Kentucky Derby favorite, with Concert Tour the second choice at 9-2.

“In the aftermath of Concert Tour’s Arkansas Derby setback, McGee lowered Essential Quality’s Kentucky Derby odds to 2-1, while Concert Tour’s price has risen substantially to 10-1. Louisiana Derby winner Hot Rod Charlie has become the second choice on McGee’s line at 6-1.

“Concert Tour won Oaklawn’s 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes in facile fashion by 4 1/4 lengths on March 13. He defeated Super Stock by 6 1/2 lengths and Caddo River by 6 3/4 lengths. These three colts clashed again in the Arkansas Derby.

“In the Rebel, Concert Tour set the early pace while being pushed by Caddo River. The roles were reversed in the Arkansas Derby. This time it was Concert Tour pushing Caddo River early in what the Equibase chart described as ‘lively fractions’ of :22.62 for the opening quarter and :46.51 for the half. This pace was much faster than the preliminary fractions of :23.42 and :47.53 posted by Concert Tour in the Rebel.

“In the Arkansas Derby, Caddo River and Concert Tour both paid the price for being involved in such a brisk early tempo. They set it up for 12-1 longshot Super Stock, who stalked early and overtook the weary pair of Caddo River and Concert Tour in the final sixteenth.

“Super Stock won going away by 2 1/2 lengths at odds of 12-1. Concert Tour had a slight lead a furlong from the finish, but he was not even able to hold on for second. After Concert Tour gained a slim advantage by heading Caddo River in upper stretch, Caddo River came home well enough to edge Concert Tour by a head for second.

“Why did Concert Tour get beat? Why did he lose to two horses he had defeated by 6+ lengths the time before? Did Concert Tour get beat because he was going farther than 1 1/16 miles for the first time? Was it because he did not get the early lead? Did he just have an off day? Concert Tour’s loss even left his trainer, Bob Baffert, perplexed. Baffert called it a ‘head-scratcher.’

“In my view, there seems to be something of an overreaction on Concert Tour’s defeat. The way he has plummeted in many Kentucky Derby rankings, you would think he lost the Arkansas Derby by 12 1/2 lengths instead of 2 1/2 lengths.

“I just don’t believe that Concert Tour should be judged too harshly for one loss. Consequently, I’m moving him down only one notch in the rankings this week to No. 3.

“Keep in mind that Joel Rosario won the Rebel aboard Concert Tour and the Louisiana Derby with Hot Rod Charlie. Even though Concert Tour got beat in the Arkansas Derby, Rosario is riding him instead of Hot Rod Charlie in the Kentucky Derby. Flavien Prat will pilot Hot Rod Charlie in the Kentucky Derby for trainer Doug O’Neill.

“One of the reasons I’m not moving Concert Tour below Hot Rod Charlie in the rankings is Rosario is not jumping ship after Concert Tour’s first loss.

“Is it possible that Concert Tour rebounds and wins the Kentucky Derby despite getting beat in his final start before the 1 1/4-mile classic? You bet it’s possible. In fact, his sire, Street Sense, won the 2007 Kentucky Derby despite going into that race off a loss when finishing second in the Blue Grass Stakes.

“No less than mighty Secretariat lost his final start before the 1973 Kentucky Derby when he finished third to Angle Light and Sham in the Wood Memorial. Two weeks after the Wood, Secretariat won the Kentucky Derby by 2 1/2 lengths in 1:59 2/5. That clocking shaved three-fifths of a second off the track record set by Northern Dancer in 1964. Secretariat’s 1:59 2/5 record still stands all these years later.

“Essential Quality, who holds the top spot in this newsletter’s rankings, is undefeated going into the Kentucky Derby. So is Rock Your World, who climbs to No. 2 this week after being No. 3 last week.

“Trained by Brad Cox, Essential Quality was voted the Eclipse Award as champion 2-year-old male following an abbreviated three-race 2020 campaign highlighted by a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Kentucky-bred Tapit colt is two for two this year. He took Oaklawn’s Southwest Stakes by 4 1/4 lengths on a sloppy track Feb. 27, then won Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes by a neck on April 3.

“John Sadler trains Rock Your World, who is three for three. After winning a pair of Santa Anita grass races on Jan. 1 and Feb. 27, the Kentucky-bred Candy Ride colt registered a front-running triumph in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby when racing on dirt for the first time April 3.

“Justify, like Rock Your World, did not race as a 2-year-old and won the Santa Anita Derby in 2018 to take a three-for-three record into the Kentucky Derby. Justify not only captured the Kentucky Derby, he won the Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes to become this country’s 13th Triple Crown winner.

“Justify, also like Rock Your World, led past every pole in the Santa Anita Derby.

“When Justify won the Santa Anita Derby by three lengths, these were his fractions and final time in fifths:

“:23 4/5, :23 4/5, :24 3/5, :24 2/5, :12 3/5, 1:49 3/5

“When Rock Your World won the Santa Anita Derby by 4 1/4 lengths, these were his fractions and final time in fifths:

“:22 2/5, :23 3/5, :24 2/5, :25 3/5, :12 4/5, 1:49 flat

“Super Stock, who was guided to his Arkansas Derby victory by jockey Ricardo Santana Jr., debuts in this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings at No. 10, replacing Tampa Bay Derby winner Helium in that position. Steve Asmussen trains Super Stock, a Kentucky-bred Dialed In colt.

“Asmussen also trains No. 8 Midnight Bourbon, the Louisiana Derby runner-up and winner of the Lecomte Stakes at New Orleans’ Fair Grounds. Southern California-based jockey Mike Smith, who was in the saddle when Justify swept the Triple Crown, has been named by Asmussen to ride Midnight Bourbon in the Kentucky Derby.

“Cox and Baffert, like Asmussen, each have two horses on the Top 10.

“In addition to Essential Quality, Cox trains No. 9 Mandaloun, who ran sixth as a 13-10 favorite in the Louisiana Derby after winning Fair Grounds’ Risen Star Stakes.

“Baffert not only has No. 3 Concert Tour, he trains No. 7 Medina Spirit, the Santa Anita Derby runner-up and winner of Santa Anita’s Robert B. Lewis Stakes.

“Meanwhile, in a Kentucky Derby development Thursday, it was announced that UAE Derby winner Panadol will not be coming to the U.S. for the race. Churchill Downs officials were notified that Panadol would not make the trip because suitable travel arrangements could not be made.

“Here are this week’s Kentucky Derby rankings, courtesy of Xpressbet:

1. Essential Quality (1)

2. Rock Your World (3)

3. Concert Tour (2)

4. Hot Rod Charlie (4)

5. Known Agenda (5)

6. Highly Motivated (6)

7. Medina Spirit (7)

8. Midnight Bourbon (8)

9. Mandaloun (9)

10. Super Stock (NR)

NOTE: Last week’s rankings in parentheses”

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only game in town at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“M&G Farms’ made the right choice when they selected Constituent as a yearling at the 2019 Los Alamitos Equine Sale. Constituent has been a winning machine for the North Carolina-based racing operation while winning the Governor’s Cup Futurity and over $224,000.

“It’s hoping for another knockout performance when Golden Boi makes his racing debut in the first of three races for juveniles on Friday night. Ridden by Ruben Lozano for trainer Valentin Zamudio, Golden Boi is in the fifth at 220 yards. There are 18 juveniles running on Friday including Chizum, a $150,000 purchase at the Ruidoso Sale last year, and Nomad, a half-brother to derby winners Circle City and Nomadic.

“Friday’s card also has the return of 2019 leading quarter-horse jockey, Jesus Rios Ayala, who has been out with knee and foot injuries since late November. He’s in the fourth race on the 2-1 favorite Gotta Corona Jess.

“Ballast Point, one of the fastest distance quarter horses of all-time, will look to get some points towards the $50,000 stakes to be held here in November when he heads a field of six in the $17,000 allowance at 1,000 yards on Saturday.

“The current points leader in the standings for the $50,000 final is Zimba Warrior with 11,031. Ballast Point could approach that figure with a victory in this event on Saturday. Horses earn points in any race at 1,000 or 870 yards. Each dollar earned equals a point.

“Ballast Point set the 1,000-yard track record in :51.676 on Jan. 2. He is also won four straight distance races at Los Alamitos and six of his last seven outings at either 1,000 or 870 yards. He will be ridden by Eduard Rojas Fernandez for the first time in place of Ramon Guce, who is currently injured. In the race will be Terrible Ted, currently ninth in the point standings with 8,213.

“Oh Jerry, currently second with 9,625 points, will gain points in in Sunday’s featured allowance. Trained by Adriana Vallejo, the Oh Tanner gelding will be going after his sixth victory in a row at Los Alamitos.

“The Vessels Club at Los Alamitos is now taking reservations for Kentucky Derby Day. It will operate with a limited capacity while offering a breakfast and lunch menu for the big day of racing. For reservations call 714-820-2681.

“Last Friday, I posted for the first time my top 10 list of top 2-year-old quarter horses at Los Alamitos. After last week, there is a new number one. Here’s where we are one week closer to the Robert Adair Kindergarten Futurity trials on Sunday, April 25.

“1. Griffindore: He’s a full-brother to champion colt Uncle D and won his debut by daylight while under a big hold in final 50 yards.

“2. Valented One: Number one last week. His workmate Red Hot Topic won here last Saturday night.

“3. Majority Interest: Won on Friday night in a faster time than Griffindore. She’s a half-sister to Grade 1 winners Powerful Favorite and Runforyourlife.

“4. La Blue Amore: She won gate to wire in her debut without breaking a sweat.

“5. New And Better: He overcame trouble and still won his first start rather easily.

“6. Good Reason To Run: She defeated New York Teller MRL last Friday, who came in after outworking Griffindore in morning gate drills.

“7. Unavailable: Beat Woman Secret, who then came back to win at 300 yards in a fast time.

“8. Quarrelsome: Won debut by daylight and runner-up in that race returned to win last weekend.

“9. Docs Fastlane: Posted meet’s fastest time at 220 yards in maiden score.

“10t. Lukka: His sire is Favorite Trick and trainer Paul Jones has always done well with sons from that sire.

“10t. Mookkie: His dam was a Grade 1 futurity finalist in 2015.”

Chris Wade’s LA pick of the day

SECOND RACE: No. 1 Untapped Potential (9-2)

She has earned strong figures in each of her last two efforts against much tougher and figures to be very competitive in this event. Her interior speed numbers should put this filly close up down the backstretch. In her most recent, she broke a tad slow at the gate opening and put herself behind when running in close quarters down on the inside for much of the affair. She finished better than looked for the superfecta placing on that night and now should be in good position to pose a threat for all the board placings for a solid jockey/trainer (33%) combo.