Horse racing newsletter: Final Preakness rankings

Hello, my name is John Cherwa and welcome to our horse racing newsletter as we give you a comprehensive guide to Saturday’s 145^th Preakness Stakes.

Before we get to the main event, I wanted to call your attention to the big non-Preakness news of the week. The Horseracing Integrity and Safety Act passed the U.S. House of Representatives on Tuesday. Here’s a story I wrote about it, raising some interesting questions. Just click here.

OK, let’s get to the incomparable Jon White.

Jon White’s Preakness rankings

As always, we’re lucky to have top expert Jon White take a look at what’s happening on the Triple Crown trail. Jon makes the morning line at Santa Anita, he’s a licensed steward, and he’s the preeminent historian on racing. We’re lucky to have him. So, here we look toward the final stop on the Triple Crown trail, with our Preakness Stakes rankings, brought courtesy of Xpressbet.com.

“The 2020 Kentucky Derby rankings in this newsletter started way back on Jan. 10. Rankings for the Triple Crown races were supposed to have lasted for 22 weeks through the June 6 Belmont Stakes.

“But due to the coronavirus pandemic, the rankings kept going and going and going, well past June 6. And now, 38 weeks after it all began on Jan. 10, the end of the road finally is reached with these rankings for Saturday’s 145th running of the $1 million Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course.

“The Triple Crown series’ original dates were May 2 for the Kentucky Derby, May 16 for the Preakness Stakes and June 6 for the Belmont Stakes. But when the pandemic turned the world upside down, the dates for all three were radically changed.

“The Belmont was switched to June 20 and shortened to 1 1/8 miles from its traditional distance of 1 1/2 miles. It marked the first time in history that the Belmont was run before the other two Triple Crown races. Tiz the Law won the Belmont by 3 3/4 lengths as the 4-5 favorite.

“The 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby was shifted to Sept. 5. Authentic won by 1 1/4 lengths at 8-1. Tiz the Law finished second as the 7-10 favorite. Tiz the Law is skipping the Preakness to make his next start in the Breeders’ Cup Classic at Keeneland on Nov. 7.

“And now the 1 3/16-mile Preakness will conclude this year’s coronavirus-revamped Triple Crown series in which all three races will have been contested for the first time without the general public in attendance.

“This is how I rank the Preakness entrants, courtesy of Xpressbet:

“1. AUTHENTIC (9-5 morning-line favorite, post position 9). Ranked No. 1 last week. Trainer Bob Baffert. Jockey John Velazquez.

“The case for: Authentic provided Baffert with his sixth Kentucky Derby victory to tie Ben Jones’ record. Of Baffert’s five Kentucky Derby winners prior to this year, all five subsequently won the Preakness. The five were Silver Charm (1997), Real Quiet (1998), War Emblem (2002), American Pharoah (2015) and Justify (2018). American Pharoah and Justify swept the Triple Crown.

“If either Authentic or Thousands Words get the job done Saturday, it will be Baffert’s record-breaking eighth Preakness victory.

“Going into the Preakness, Authentic sports five wins and a second from six career starts. His lone defeat came when he ran second to the now-retired Honor A.P. in the 1 1/8-mile Santa Anita Derby.

“Authentic has looked razor-sharp in his two workouts at Churchill Downs leading up to the Preakness. He worked five furlongs in :59.20 on Sept. 19. It was the fastest of 38 works at the distance that morning. Authentic then worked four furlongs in :47.60 on Monday. It was the fastest of 37 works at the distance that day. Martin Garcia was aboard the Kentucky-bred Into Mischief colt Monday. ‘He worked awesome,’ Garcia said.

“The shorter distance of the Preakness vis-a-vis the Kentucky Derby figures to be a plus for Authentic.

“It looks like it’s all systems go for Authentic to snag a second jewel in this year’s Triple Crown by adding a Preakness triumph to his win in the Run for the Roses.

“The case against: Maybe Authentic will have to fight harder early than he did in Louisville. Maybe his Kentucky Derby effort will have taken too much out of him. Because he’s never raced at Pimlico, maybe he won’t like the track. But everybody in this year’s Preakness is racing over this surface for the first time.

“2. ART COLLECTOR (5-2, post position 3). Ranked No. 2 last week. Trainer Tommy Drury Jr. Jockey Brian Hernandez Jr.

“The case for: This is a serious racehorse. Art Collector is four for four this year, winning by 2 3/4 to 6 1/2 lengths. Since Drury took over as trainer prior to Art Collector’s 2020 debut, the Kentucky-bred Bernardini colt has not lost a race.

“Many regarded Art Collector as a Kentucky Derby contender, but he was not entered after he nicked the bulb of his left front heel with a hind hoof while galloping at Churchill Downs five days before the race. According to Drury, the heel issue was nothing major, just bad timing.

“Art Collector has sparkled in his two recent workouts at Churchill Downs in preparation for the Preakness. He worked five furlongs in :59.40 on Sept. 19. The only faster workout at the distance that morning was Authentic’s :59.20. Art Collector then worked five furlongs in 1:00.80 last Saturday.

“A big asset for Art Collector is his ability to succeed in various ways. In his four races this year, he has won in front-running fashion, from slightly off the pace and when rallying from seventh.

“Is Art Collector good enough to beat the Kentucky Derby winner Saturday? A lot of people -- quite understandably -- think so. It’s entirely feasible that Art Collector will be the one posing for pictures after the Preakness.

“The case against: The truth is it’s difficult to find a chink in his armor. Yes, this will be the farthest he has ever raced. But the strong manner in which he has come home in all of his races this year suggests this longer trip might well be a positive rather than a negative.

“3. SWISS SKYDIVER (6-1, post position 4). Ranked No. 3 last week. Trainer Ken McPeek. Jockey Robby Albarado.

“The case for: The consistent and durable filly warrants respect in this, her second start against the boys. She has finished first or second in six straight starts.

“Starting on March 28, Swiss Skydiver has won stakes races in Florida (Gulfstream Park Oaks), Arkansas (Fantasy), California (Santa Anita Oaks) and New York (Alabama), while finishing second in a pair of stakes races in Kentucky (Blue Grass and Kentucky Oaks).

“Swiss Skydiver actually was a slight favorite over Art Collector in the Blue Grass at Keeneland on July 22. But the Kentucky-bred Daredevil filly had to settle for second in that 1 1/16-mile affair. Art Collector won the Blue Grass by 3 1/2 lengths. Swiss Skydiver then won the 1 1/4-mile Alabama Stakes by 3 1/2 lengths at Saratoga on Aug. 15 before finishing second to Shedaresthedevil in the 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks at Churchill Downs on Sept. 4.

“The 1 3/16-mile distance of the Preakness is not a problem for Swiss Skydiver inasmuch as she was a dominant winner of the 1 1/4-mile Alabama.

“Swiss Skydiver is the first filly to run in the Preakness since Ria Antonia, who finished 10th in 2014.

“Five fillies have won the Preakness: Flocarline (1903), Whimsical (1906), Rhine Maiden (1915), Nellie Morse (1924) and Rachel Alexandra (2009).

“The case against: Swiss Skydiver already has run against male foes once and lost. Also, there is a lingering concern that one of these days all of her traveling and racing this year might catch up with her.

“4. PNEUMATIC (20-1, post position 10). Ranked No. 4 last week. Trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Joe Bravo.

“The case for: It helps Pneumatic, Max Player and Excession that their trainer has won the Preakness twice (Curlin in 2007 and Rachel Alexandra in 2009) among his 9,000-plus total victories.

“In only his third career start, Pneumatic acquitted himself well to finish third in the 1 1/16-mile Matt Winn Stakes at Churchill Downs on May 23. That race was won by the highly regarded Maxfield. Pneumatic then finished fourth in the Belmont Stakes before winning the 1 1/16-mile Pegasus Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths at Monmouth Park on Aug. 15.

“Off Pneumatic’s performance in the Pegasus and the impression that we might not have seen his best yet, the Kentucky-bred Uncle Mo colt just might run his way into the superfecta Saturday at a very nice price in the betting (though it seems likely his odds Saturday will be shorter -- perhaps considerably shorter -- than his 20-1 on the morning line).

“The case against: Pneumatic is still relatively light in experience. His five lifetime starts are the fewest of everyone in the Preakness.

“In all likelihood, Pneumatic will need to run better than he ever has before in order to win Saturday.

“5. THOUSAND WORDS (6-1, post position 5). Ranked No. 6 last week. Trainer Bob Baffert. Jockey Florent Geroux.

“The case for: Thousand Words moves up a notch in my rankings this week mainly because his five-furlong workout in 1:00.60 at Churchill Downs last Saturday was much better visually and time-wise than his five-furlong workout in 1:02.40 there on Sept. 19. The Florida-bred Pioneerof the Nile colt did not have blinkers for his Sept. 19 workout. He did have blinkers for his drill last Saturday.

“On Saturday, Thousand Words will race with blinkers. In his four career wins, he’s raced with blinkers twice and without them the other two times. Thousand Words had blinkers on when he won the 1 1/16-mile Los Alamitos Futurity last year and 1 1/16-mile Robert B. Lewis Stakes at Santa Anita earlier this year.

“Thousand Words was supposed to have run in the Kentucky Derby. However, in the paddock, he reared, lost his balance and fell on his side. He was automatically scratched as a precaution.

“A $1 million auction purchase, Thousand Words has shown enough in some of his races to suggest he could prove a tough customer in the Preakness.

“The case against: Thousand Words lost by 11 1/4 lengths the one time he faced Authentic in the 1 1/16-mile San Felipe Stakes at Santa Anita on March 7.

“As noted earlier, Thousand Words will be racing with blinkers. He had blinkers on in his two worst performances, losses by 11 1/4 and 29 3/4 lengths.

“6. NY TRAFFIC (15-1, post position 7). Ranked No. 5 last week. Trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. Jockey Horacio Karamanos.

“The case for: When Ny Traffic finished second in the 1 1/8-mile Haskell Invitational at Monmouth Park on July 18, he came within a nose of defeating Authentic. That effort in itself indicates that Ny Traffic should not be taken lightly in the Preakness.

“Granted, Ny Traffic finished eighth, 13 3/4 lengths behind Authentic, in the Kentucky Derby. But Ny Traffic had a rough time of it that day. Joseph reported that the New York-bred emerged from the race with ‘a couple of cuts’ and lost his right front shoe. Ny Traffic needed ‘a staple in his (left front) ankle from a cut he got,’ Joseph said. Following Ny Traffic’s ordeal in Louisville, he now shows up in the Preakness following a brisk four-furlong workout in :48.00 at Churchill Downs last Sunday.

“The case against: Ny Traffic comes into the Preakness with a five-race losing streak. Not only that, any way you slice it, Ny Traffic has lost both times he has run against Authentic.

“7. MR. BIG NEWS (12-1, post position 2). Ranked No. 7 last week. Trainer Bret Calhoun. Jockey Gabriel Saez.

“The case for: Mr. Big News showed he is not out of his league in a Triple Crown race when he closed from 10th to finish third in the Kentucky Derby at odds of 46-1. It was not the first time the Kentucky-bred Giant’s Causeway colt has given a good account of himself at huge odds. He rallied from 11th to win the Oaklawn Stakes -- ironically also at odds of 46-1 -- on a sloppy track April 11.

“If there is a fast pace in the Preakness, Mr. Big News is a candidate to mow them down and win.

“The case against: His come-from-way-back running style means there is an increased chance that Mr. Big News could encounter traffic trouble.

“Mr. Big News has just two lifetime wins, whereas Authentic, Art Collector and Swiss Skydiver each have five career victories to their credit.

“8. MAX PLAYER (15-1, post position 8). Ranked No. 8 last week. Trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Paco Lopez.

“The case for: Off Max Player’s third-place finishes in the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes, he has a license to finish at least third in the Preakness. After being as far back as 13th at one point during the Kentucky Derby, the Kentucky-bred Honor Code colt came on to finish fifth, an effort that was far from a disgrace.

“The case against: As in the case of Mr. Big News, Max Player’s come-from-way-back running style means there is an increased chance that he could experience traffic woes.

“Since winning the 1 1/8-mile Withers Stakes at Aqueduct on Feb. 1, Max Player has not finished one-two in three straight starts.

“9. JESUS’ TEAM (30-1, post position 6). Not on my Top 10 last week. Trainer Jose D’Angelo. Jockey Jevian Toledo.

“The case for: There is some hope for Jesus’ Team to get a minor award as a longshot off his last three races. He finished fourth in the Haskell and second in the Pegasus at Monmouth, then ran third in the 1 1/8-mile Jim Dandy Stakes at Saratoga on Sept. 5.

“The case against: It’s extremely hard to envision Jesus’ Team winning the Preakness when his most recent victory came in a claiming race. The last time he won, he defeated $25,000 claimers at Gulfstream Park on May 8.

“10. EXCESSION (30-1, post position 1). Not on my Top 10 last week. Trainer Steve Asmussen. Jockey Sheldon Russell.

“The case for: Excession has not started since finishing a respectable second at the gigantic odds of 82-1 in the 1 1/16-mile Rebel Stakes won by Nadal on a sloppy track March 14 at Oaklawn Park. The Kentucky-bred Union Rags colt was sidelined after the Rebel due to having a knee chip surgically removed, Asmussen told Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee. Running that well against such a talented opponent as Nadal does make it seem possible that Excession might make some noise in the Preakness despite the long layoff.

“The case against: It’s very difficult to picture Excession being able to win the Preakness when he has not raced since March 14. Also, he’s the lone Preakness entrant who has not won twice or more.

“11. LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE (30-1, post position 11). Not on my Top 10 last week. Trainer Jorge Abreu. Jockey Trevor McCarthy.

“The case for: Liveyourbeastlife does seem to be improving. The Kentucky-bred Ghostzapper colt is coming off his best performance to date when second in the Jim Dandy at odds of 14-1.

“The case against: The outside post in a field of 11 at Pimlico is no bargain. In a nutshell, Liveyourbeastlife almost certainly must run much better than ever before in order to pull off a Preakness shocker.”

Santa Anita preview

We’ve got another three-day week but not with the firepower of last week’s stakes-filled weekend. There are 10 races with a 12:30 p.m. start. Four of the races are on the turf with no stakes. There are four maiden stakes with one allowance, which we’ll make our feature. And, it’s not a great allowance.

The eighth is one mile for fillies and mares going for a purse of $57,000, tops on the card. Velvet Queen is the 5-2 favorite for trainer Richard Baltas and jockey Flavien Prat. She is three-of-13 lifetime with her last win coming on Nov. 22 of last year.

Classy Ruler, at 3-1, is the second favorite for John Shirreffs and Mike Smith. She is one-of-five lifetime, winning her last a maiden special. Post is around 4:15 p.m.

Here are the field sizes, in order: 9,8, 5, 10 (2 also eligible), 8, 6, 7, 7, 10 (2 ae), 11.

Frank Mirahmadi’s SA pick

EIGHTH RACE: No. 6 Classy Ruler (3-1)

It took her five starts to graduate, but Classy Ruler put it all together last time and fits very well in this allowance race as she stretches out again. Her dam won the Grade 2 Fantasy Stakes around two turns at Oaklawn in her second start, and the filly she beat last time (Acting Out) won on Sunday.

Sunday’s result: Camino de Estrella was very flat and never threatened in the third race. He was claimed and may deserve one more shot next time at what could be an attractive price.

Frank Mirahmadi is the track announcer at Santa Anita Park.

Ciaran Thornton’s SA pick

NNTH RACE: No. 2 Mithqaal (12-1)

Mithqaal won going longer first off the bench in August and then came back under the same jockey Sept. 7 at Friday’s distance. A very fast pace saw Mithqaal track fourth into the turn. Unfortunately, the hose was totally boxed in on the rail and had to be eased with no room to run. Jockey Ricardo Gonzalez did the right thing and because of that trainer Johnathan Wong raises the horse in class and we get an excellent 12-1 value. Mithqall has speed. This tandem is winning 40% and the trainer is 26% third off the layoff, 28% in claimers and 27% on the year.

Sunday’s result: Tiberius Mercurius tracked in 4th into the turn and looked like he was ready to make a move but had nothing in the tank and finished off the board.

Ciaran Thornton is the handicapper for Californiapick4.com, which offers daily full card picks, longshots of the day, best bets of the day.

Los Alamitos weekend preview

Los Alamitos is the only track in California racing at night. So, let’s turn things over to marketing and media guru Orlando Gutierrez, who will tell us about things going on at Los Alamitos. Orlando, the floor is yours.

“The 16th annual Los Alamitos Equine Sale will be held on Oct. 3-4 starting at 10 a.m. at the sale grounds facility located adjacent to the track. It should have more than 330 hips of which 301 will be quarter-horse yearlings. The sale is a joint venture between Ed Allred, the sport’s all-time leading breeder and the owner of Los Alamitos, and 2019 AQHA champion breeder Burns Ranch. The Pacific Coast Quarter Horse Racing Assn. manages the sale.

“Recent graduates of the sale include 2020 stakes winners Chance To Excel, winner of the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity, and Chocolatito, winner of the Grade 1 Vessels Maturity. Other graduates include two-time Grade 1 winner Powerful Favorite, two-time graded derby winner Mister Appolitical, 2019 Grade 2 PCQHRA Breeders Futurity winner Sass Go Blue, 2019 Governor’s Cup Futurity winner Pitbull and stakes winners Chance To Fire and Tac Me Up.

“the catalog includes all the top breeding lines led by Favorite Cartel, Apollitical Jess, Corona Cartel, One Famous Eagle, Freightrain B, Tempting Dash and more. The online sales catalog and live streaming of the sale are at losalamitosequinesale.com.

“This is a busy weekend of stakes at Los Alamitos. The eight-race program on Friday night will be headed by the Grade 2, $140,000 PCQHRA Breeders Derby and the $25,000 Blane Schvaneveldt Handicap. Runforyourlife is the 6-5 favorite after his tremendous trial victory on Sept. 12. Eduardo Nicasio will ride the full brother to Powerful Favorite for trainer Chris O’Dell. Allred will have three horses in the Breeders Derby including trial winner Up For Speed, who is the morning line second choice at 2-1. Allred has won the last two derbies at Los Alamitos with Nomadic in the Governor’s Cup Derby and Circle City in the Golden State Derby.

“The Schvaneveldt at 400 yards could be a Monty Arrossa-trifecta, as he’ll saddle Emerald Downs Championship winner CM Boom Shakalaka, Bitterroot Derby winner Zoom On Jess and the red-hot Game Stealer, who has won his last three starts. The Schvaneveldt is for horses that have raced in the Northwest and Inter-mountain regions plus the quarter-horse circuits in Arizona, Nevada and Canada.

“Saturday’s Grade 2 $375,000 PCQHRA Breeders Futurity is wide-open after fastest qualifier Terrific Temper did not enter back in the final. The field is now headed by Opt Out, who finished third in the Governor’s Cup Futurity, and Thats R Best Card, who ran fifth in the Grade 1 Ed Burke Million Futurity. A horse to watch in the final is Jim Nebeker’s No Hesitation, who is 6-1 on the morning line, after he won his futurity trial by daylight while racing at Los Alamitos for the first time. Another note for the Breeders Futurity is the arrival of 2019 AQHA champion jockey James Flores aboard Rite On Time for trainer Jaime Gomez. Flores led the nation in virtually every category last year and he’s having an equally strong season this year. He leads the nation in wins and is second in earnings. Flores will be looking for his first stakes win at Los Alamitos. Terrific Temper will look to return in the trials to the Grade 1 Golden State Million Futurity on Oct. 18.

“Sunday will be headed by trials to the $100,000 Wild West Futurity. Similarly to the Schvaneveldt Handicap, these juveniles have raced in the Northwest and Inter-mountain regions plus Arizona, Nevada and Canada. The horses with the 10 fastest times will advance to the Wild West final on Sunday, Oct. 25.”

Chris Wade’s Friday LA pick

SIXTH RACE: No. 3 Lopini (5-1)

He has improved in each subsequent start on my comparison speed charts with everything factored in (trouble and track variant) and either of his last two efforts would put him strongly in the mix against this cast of rivals. In his last outing, 28 nights ago, Lopini got slightly rambunctious in the gate prior to bobbling inward and brushing a rival losing about three-quarters of a length at the start. From there, this runner put forth a big run past the gap to garner the front end and then pulled away nearing the wire while under a slight hold at the finish prior to galloping out well into the clubhouse turn. He should be a big contender here with another step forward Friday evening for new connections that do well with new trainees at a medium mutual.

Now the star of the show, Friday’s entries.