It’s clutch time: a (possibly meaningless) comparison of Dodgers and Mets

There are certain topics in baseball that elicit visceral disagreement and spirited debate.

Whether certain players perform better under pressure — they’re called “clutch” players — actually exist is one of them.

An article on the topic published by the Society for American Baseball Research called clutch performance “a statistical artifact with no predictive value.” Clutch hitting, SABR declared, was a “mirage.”

But around a major league clubhouse, players bristle at the notion that postseason success, or failure, is a random result. How could stress and nervousness not affect the mortals who play the game?

Even people who don’t suit up sense it.

“Just sitting in the stands watching a playoff game versus a regular-season game, I feel different,” Dodgers General Manager Farhan Zaidi said. “My stomach feels different. So I don’t know how a player doesn’t feel different or react differently to that.”

There is plenty of evidence to support believers and nonbelievers, sometimes generated by the same player.

Dodgers infielder Chase Utley rose to the occasion in the 2009 World Series, hitting five home runs for the Philadelphia Phillies. That came a year after he batted .167 in the World Series.

When Utley and the Dodgers open the National League division series on Friday, their roster will bring roughly double the postseason experience as the New York Mets.

Whether that’s an advantage or disadvantage might depend on your side in the “clutch” debate.

Take left-hander Clayton Kershaw, the Dodgers’ ace. Brilliant during the regular season, Kershaw owns a 5.12 postseason earned-run average. In his subpar playoff outings, has he been the victim of high workloads, weak bullpen support and statistical artifacts, or is he just not clutch?

For clutch partisans, here is what’s revealed in an examination of Dodgers and Mets postseason experiences. For the cynics, here is a bunch of random statistics:

Overachievers

Mets outfielder Yoenis Cespedes has a reputation for production in big moments.

He has a hit in all 10 postseason games, multiple hits in four of those, and his on-base percentage is .395.

For the Dodgers, there is catcher A.J. Ellis. He has, by far, the highest postseason on-base-plus-slugging percentage of any player on either team, 1.163.

One caveat: He only has 44 at-bats. But he also has a 10-game postseason hitting streak and has a hit in 13 of 14 games.

Underachievers

Kershaw’s struggles are well documented. Those of David Wright, the Mets’ captain, are muted because he has appeared in the postseason just once.

In 10 games, the third baseman has a .216 batting average, one home run and an OPS more than 100 points lower than his average during the regular season — even after adjusting for the typical dip in offensive production during the playoffs.

Dodgers second baseman Howie Kendrick has fared even worse. In 59 at-bats, his OPS dips more than 200 points. In 16 games, his on-base percentage is .197, and he has one home run. He also has just one walk in 63 plate appearances.

Other notables

If history is his guide, Manager Don Mattingly would pull Kershaw after the sixth inning. Kershaw’s seventh-inning ERA during the playoffs is 27.0. His ERA in the first four innings is 1.97.

Mattingly would also give right-hander Zack Greinke more swings, maybe as a pinch-hitter. Greinke has a .313 batting average in seven postseason games.

First baseman Adrian Gonzalez’s teams are 5-1 in postseason games when he drives in at least one run.

Closer Kenley Jansen hasn’t given up a run in six postseason save opportunities.

In his one playoff start, Dodgers left-hander Brett Anderson pitched six shutout innings.

Also, the Mets’ starting rotation has no playoff experience — which could be important, unless it isn’t: See Kansas City Royals of 2014.

Even the Dodgers’ extensive postseason experience is limited in a crucial area: Only two players, Utley and his former Phillies teammate Jimmy Rollins, have won a World Series.

The pair serves as a reminder that no matter what side of the issue you’re on, one thing is undeniable. At the end, the rings are real.

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