Harris hasn’t sealed the deal. Focus groups with young voters show why

WASHINGTON —  Asked whether she plans to vote this year, the young woman from northern Michigan sighed slightly before explaining her hesitance.

“If I do choose a side … if it goes that way and it blows up, it’s gonna be my fault,” she said, adding that she knows her sentiment feels exaggerated, but “I’m just scared about making the wrong decision.”

“One could implode my life, and the other could implode my life,” she said of the two presidential candidates. “I have to choose between the cost of living … and then having rights as a woman.”

Vice President Kamala Harris could drive up inflation, which already has undermined her economic security, she fears. Former President Trump could take away abortion rights and threaten her healthcare.

“I get that it’s not black and white,” she said, “but that’s just kind of how I’m understanding it right now.”

The comment, from a focus group Wednesday night, is a sentiment that “I’ve heard multiple times” in this election cycle, said pollster John Della Volpe, who moderated the group.

Central Dynamic of 2024

The remark highlighted a central dynamic that has kept the presidential race agonizingly close:

Harris has gained significant ground since becoming the Democratic candidate this summer. She gained a bit more ground this week in the aftermath of her Sept. 10 debate against Trump.

But she hasn’t closed the sale with a significant number of young voters and voters of color. She leads with those groups, but not by as much as Democrats would like, according to multiple polls. She is doing exceptionally well among white college graduates, a group that also sided heavily with Democrats in 2022 midterm elections. But without stronger support from other groups, she hasn’t been able to break out of a near-deadlock with Trump nationally and in the major swing states.

The focus groups shined a light on how much that softness in support is tied to a pervasive sense of economic anxiety, growing out of the country’s recent bout of inflation, which appears especially acute among many young voters.

Della Volpe, one of the country’s leading experts on young voters, convened four groups this week — one each involving white men, white women, men of color and women of color from Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

The sessions were part of a project, called FutureVoice, aimed at increasing civic engagement among people in their 20s.

FutureVoice uses the sessions in part to test ideas for nonpartisan ads about electoral participation that it airs on streaming platforms and social media, said Sarina Tracy, a spokesperson for the project. I was able to watch all four sessions on condition that I not use the names of the participants.

The voters were chosen to represent what Della Volpe refers to as “fence-sitters” — the roughly half of eligible voters younger than 30 who may vote, but aren’t deeply engaged or committed to the political process.

Because they aren’t fully engaged, these young people don’t represent the large majority of voters, who are deeply dug in on their vote choice. But they do represent the voters whom Harris potentially could mobilize and who, if they decide to turn out for her, could push her to a more solid lead over Trump.

Deep Economic concern

Economic worry shows up repeatedly in polls — two-thirds of voters in Pennsylvania, for example, rate the economy as only “fair” or “poor,” according to a new Washington Post survey of that state, which many see as the one most likely to decide the election. Voters without college degrees were especially likely to have a negative view of the economy, the poll found.

In the focus groups, noneconomic issues came up occasionally. A few people mentioned the war in Gaza. A couple talked about climate change. Anxiety about pocketbook issues, however, formed a recurring and persistent theme.

Asked by Della Volpe for a single word that came to mind when he mentioned the economy, the answers poured out in a bilious stream: “crumbling,” “failing” “unequal” “decline.”

The young people spoke about difficulty paying their bills, finding a job with decent pay and, especially, dealing with the cost of housing.

“The quote, unquote American Dream has shifted,” said one of the participants in the group of white men, who lives outside of Detroit and works in human resources. “It’s still just unattainable for a lot of people to buy a house.”

“Every day we’re just, you know, surviving,” said another Michigan voter, a Black business student at Wayne State University. “Hope comes in small, little packages for us.”

Those downbeat assessments are to some extent at odds with economic statistics. Economists point to the speed at which the country recovered from the recession created by the COVID-19 pandemic, the large number of new jobs created, the historically low level of unemployment and the fact that wage gains have outpaced price increases for most workers over the past year.

Among other groups in the electorate, that disconnect between the economic data and voters’ views can be discounted as partisanship. The Washington Post poll, for example, found that 60% of voters said their own economic conditions were good, even as 66% rated the nation’s conditions fair or poor. Those who had positive views of their own conditions but negative views of the country’s heavily supported Trump, the poll found.

The young people in the focus groups, however, were not strong partisans. Their views of the economy writ large were clearly in sync with how they viewed their own lives, and those views reflected a pervasive pessimism about their current conditions and their futures.

“I’m not hopeless about the future, but I’m scared about the future,” said one of the participants in the white, male group, who lives in central Pennsylvania and works at an amusement park. His sentiment seemed widely shared in all four sessions.

“We have it pretty good” compared with people in many other countries, said a Latino resident of Michigan who recently returned to the state after a stint overseas in the Army National Guard. “But there is a sense of, like, constant doom, impending doom.”

Several factors may make the current economy especially unsettling for young people:

Great Recession memories

Americans younger than 30 have never experienced a previous bout of inflation, while older people, who have seen price spikes come and go, may find it less worrisome, University of Michigan economist Justin Wolfers suggested earlier this year.

Young people, on average, also have less economic security to begin with, making them more vulnerable to price shocks.

The rapid increase in housing costs in recent years has more impact on young people than on their elders, most of whom already own their home.

Finally, as several focus group participants suggested, the life experience of people in their 20s may also make them unusually susceptible to economic fears.

Asked about their earliest memories of something related to government or politics, several mentioned the Great Recession of 2008-09.

That memory “brings a little fear into everything that’s going on right now with inflation,” said one focus group participant, a student at Temple University in Philadelphia, who remembered the way the financial crisis roiled his community.

“I do know that I’m scared of it,” he said.

“It’s like this ghost hanging over us right now,” responded another participant, a recent college graduate who works as a part-time bartender in Pittsburgh, and who recalled his mother losing her job in the recession.

“It hit us all hard,” he said. “I don’t want to use the word ‘traumatized,’ but we just remember it.”

Because inflation spiked on President Biden’s watch, voters tend to blame him — and, by extension, Harris.

These voters also tend to be skeptical about the ability of politicians to actually fulfill the promises they make.

“Our generation wants a change, but we don’t know how to get there,” as one of the focus group members, a Latina from Wisconsin, put it.

Getting past that and persuading fence-sitting voters that she has a plan to improve the economy could be a final barrier for Harris’ campaign to overcome, Della Volpe said.

But the focus groups, as well as polls, indicate that she does have a path to reach them.

“I don’t think many of them actually want to vote for Trump,” Della Volpe said, referring to the fence-sitters. For many of the young voters and voters of color who are considering him, “it’s kind of a deal with the devil. They think it’s better for their own personal survival.”

So far, Harris has successfully introduced herself to voters and achieved a significant increase in the share who view her favorably. A majority now see her as a person who “cares about the needs and problems of people like you,” according to the latest YouGov poll for the Economist.

And in the aftermath of the debate, she has persuaded majorities that she is intelligent and has the right temperament to be president.

“She needed to pass all three of those hurdles” in order to have “a conversation with voters about her vision and the economy,” Della Volpe said.

“The question is how effective she can be in that next chapter.”

That’s the overwhelming question for the next six and a half weeks. The answer likely will determine whether Harris can win a definitive victory or go to the end locked in a nail-biting tie.

What else you should be reading

Polls of the week: This week saw a very large number of high-quality surveys as pollsters sought to gauge the results of the Sept. 10 debate. Among the ones most worth looking at: New York Times/Siena College (national and Pennsylvania), YouGov/Economist (national), AP/NORC (national), Washington Post (Pennsylvania), Suffolk University (Pennsylvania), Quinnipiac University (Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin), Marist College/NPR (Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan).

L.A. Times special: The civil war inside the Republican Party deep in the heart of Texas

Saturday must read: This CNN investigation of Republican candidate Mark Robinson could have a major impact on the North Carolina governor’s race.

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