Trump and the problem with being an extremist on abortion

Mitzi Rivas, left, hugs her daughter Maya Iribarren during an abortion-rights protest at City Hall in San Francisco in 2022.

April 9, 2024 6 AM PT

Good morning. There are 209 days until the election, and Donald Trump is feeling the heat.

But not from the sun, which disappeared Monday. And the world didn’t end! There wasn’t even a plague of locusts or a murder of crows. What a letdown, especially for Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.), who has been all amped up that the eclipse was a warning from her God.

“God is sending America strong signs to tell us to repent,” she posted on X.

Later, she doubled down: “Yes eclipses are predictable and earthquakes happen and we know when comets are passing by, however God created all of these things and uses them to be signs for those of us who believe.”

Just a thought: What if the gods are using the eclipse to tell us everything is awesome? Like, you guys are doing great, so here’s a cool treat?

Anyway, this one is for all you suburban soccer moms out there (no hate, I’ve sliced my share of oranges) and those who vote like one.

The Trump punt

Remember the Trump who took credit for destroying Roe vs. Wade? The guy who has many times declared himself the “person proudly responsible for the ending” of national abortion protections?

Well, meet the new Trump, the guy who wants it both ways: anti-abortion warrior but also, whatever you want is fine by me.

You’ve heard by now that Trump put out a four-minute video Monday (heavily edited and filled with weird jump cuts) desperately dodging the issue of a federal abortion ban, despite the fact that at least four times in past months, he has indicated support for a national 15-week prohibition.

Instead, he is now saying that abortion should be a state issue, and “whatever they decide must be the law of the land.”

Like, all of the sudden, he’s Mr. Reasonable, when, as Reproductive Freedom for All President and Chief Executive Mini Timmaraju pointed out, he’s clearly “trying to neutralize” what has become a political liability.

Small numbers, mighty voters

Support of drastic abortion restrictions has all too obviously become a big, fat stinker in this election — despite loud glee from ultra-MAGA extremists who think repressing women is great.

A recent KFF poll found that 67% of women consider abortion to be the most important issue in the election, as do 21% of independent voters.

The authors behind that poll found that while most people have made up their minds on the issue and the candidates, abortion “may move small numbers” of voters in key demographics.

Those voters are crucial.

Mike Madrid, a founder of the Lincoln Project and author of the upcoming book “The Latino Century,” said those small margins — especially in swing states — could cost Trump the election.

“He needs to stop the bleeding,” Madrid said via text.

Trump’s advisors realize they have “overplayed their hand” and are worried about “the extremist label,” he said. Because since 2016, the party that is perceived as more extreme has lost.

So Trump is wiggling around, trying to find a sweet spot that will take the focus off reproductive rights, where he is undeniably extreme.

Even Trump seemed to acknowledge that this gambit was a weak-sauce attempt to get votes.

“You must follow your heart on this issue,” he said. “But remember, you must also win elections to restore our culture and in fact, to save our country.”

We’re not that dumb

But “the damage is done,” Madrid said. “It’s like saying, ‘I’ll require all cars to have seat belts’ after we’ve removed the brakes.”

And indeed the brakes are gone.

According to the Guttmacher Insitute, which tracks reproductive health policy, 20 states have abortion bans that could kick into effect before a woman realizes she’s pregnant; 14 of those basically ban abortion altogether.

Those bans have created a reproductive healthcare desert in the South, where a woman who wants an abortion must travel hours or days outside the region — which of course makes it nearly impossible for poor women. About 1 in 5 women now has to travel to receive abortion care.

But states aren’t satisfied with that. Some Texas counties have laws that seek to punish women for traveling for an abortion. Other states, including Idaho, Alabama and Oklahoma, are trying to do the same.

Women have been criminally charged for miscarriages, and last week, a leaked video showed Texas Republicans pondering the death penalty for women who have abortions.

So now we are talking forced births — sometimes with no exceptions for rape or incest.

Trump may want us to believe he’s had a come-to-sanity moment on reproductive rights, but all you have to do is watch the video to see him go off the reasonable rails. Halfway through, he starts talking about how we currently execute babies. (Executing babies is illegal and does not happen, for those who need clarification.)

“It must be remembered that the Democrats are the radical ones on this position because they support abortion up to and even beyond the ninth month,” Trump said. “The concept of having an abortion in the later months and even execution after birth. And that’s exactly what it is. The baby is born, the baby is executed after birth is unacceptable.”

I realize the grammar in that is terrible, but that’s literally from his official “Statement on Life.”

And, as Timmaraju said, it’s clearly aimed at letting his people know he’s still with them.

“That was not even a dog whistle. That was a big neon sign to the extremist nut jobs,” she said. “I don’t know how you can continue to separate the insanity from these other statements.”

And though Trump spent the first part of his Monday speech extolling how much he loves IVF and strongly supports “couples who are trying to have a precious baby,” it’s the same legal issue. (Author’s note: Except you, LGBTQ+ folks. Not sure he supports your rights.)

Eventually, no abortion means no in vitro fertilization. Because once that embryo is created, it’s a precious baby under the “conception is life” argument.

No matter how much some Republicans are contorting themselves over IVF, the fact is, an embryo in the womb is no different than an embryo in a freezer. You can’t say one is life and the other is like a couch in storage.

Then, of course, there are the states that are amenable to banning contraception, which some consider a form of abortion.

So the future of states’ rights is no contraception, no abortion and no travel to get one.

That is definitely more reasonable.

Once a liar

Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc., said Trump’s “mush” of a statement is unlikely to take the focus off abortion, making it a “misfire.”

Leaving it to states may sound good to unsure conservative or independent voters in places like California — at first — but a little bit of critical thinking will likely send them right back to their quagmire of doubt.

“He didn’t solve the problem for himself; he just postponed it,” Mitchell told me. And not even for that long.

Within hours of Trump’s announcement, the Biden campaign was fundraising off it.

“Let’s be clear: Trump is betting that we will stop caring. That we’ll get distracted. Discouraged,” Biden HQ texted early Monday afternoon.

Mitchell points out that voters often think that having the right position on an issue is what makes a candidate strong. But in his experience, what really works is keeping the voters focused on strong issues.

For Trump, that may be immigration. He’s been pounding on the “hordes” at the border for multiple election cycles and is upping the ante on that, especially in swing states — I’ll be looking more closely at how he’s doing that Thursday.

But for now, the takeaway from Trump’s new abortion position is that it’s a dodge, not a change. That can best be seen in the response from his supporters.

The Susan B. Anthony Pro Life America group swore it was “deeply disappointed in President Trump’s position” but also “will work tirelessly to defeat President Biden and extreme congressional Democrats.”

That’s a limp condemnation, one that makes me think even Republicans know he is lying.

Finally, something we can all agree on.