Young people turned out big to vote against Trump. Will climate get them to show up for the midterms?

The Trump era brought many anomalies to American politics, including one that was a silver lining for Democrats: Young people finally showed up to vote.

I’m Jasper Goodman of the L.A. Times politics team, filling in this week on the Essential Politics newsletter with a look at a key voting bloc — Americans aged 18 to 29.

Long the group with the most dismal turnout record, young Americans voted in 2018 and 2020 at rates much higher than in other recent elections. That provided a boon to Democrats, whom young people supported by wide margins.

But ahead of the 2022 midterms, many Democrats have feared the Trump bump would not last. Now, the party may have a new calling card for young voters: the Inflation Reduction Act and its provisions to spend billions of dollars a year to combat climate change.

House Democrats passed the sweeping healthcare, tax and climate change bill Friday, sending it to President Biden’s desk. Around the country, candidates are already campaigning on it.

The legislation could be one key to motivating young people, who could represent an important part of the Democratic coalition again this year — if they show up at the polls.

A bill to inflate youth turnout?

The new law would be the largest investment in climate-change solutions in U.S. history, but it includes compromises — especially a provision that would bolster some oil and gas production on public lands. That has drawn the ire of some progressives and youth climate activists.

But the concessions appear unlikely to be a major sticking point politically, even for activists on the party’s left.

In a letter to lawmakers over the weekend, a coalition of young activists — including the executive director of the youth-led Sunrise Movement — told members of Congress to “pass this bill, but don’t pat yourselves on the back.” The group called it “a start” that is worth supporting but “still less than what our generation deserves.”

Young voters “have proven to be incredibly pragmatic,” said John Della Volpe, who leads a biannual poll of young Americans at the Harvard Institute of Politics and worked for Biden in 2020. He noted that young people turned out in big numbers for Biden even though he was unpopular among those younger than 30 during the primary.

But the biggest question about young voters isn’t how they’ll vote — it’s if they’ll vote.

Youth voter turnout was up in nearly every state during the last midterm elections in 2018, according to a Tufts University analysis. That trend accelerated when former President Trump was on the ballot in 2020, but it’s hardly a given that it will hold this cycle.

The new law isn’t the only thing that Democrats hope will motivate young voters this year. The Supreme Court’s landmark decision stripping away abortion protections, which is especially unpopular among younger Americans; the bipartisan gun safety bill Biden signed into law in June; and the long-awaited climate investments are all likely to “further mobilize an already tuned in generation of young voters,” Della Volpe said.

At a minimum, the new bill is likely to prevent young Democratic voters from turning away from the party out of frustration over climate inaction, said Anthony Leiserowitz, a professor at Yale University who directs the school’s Program on Climate Change Communication.

Whether it will be “enough to get them to be motivated to go to the polls if they weren’t already planning to” is yet to be seen, he said.

The impact on turnout will depend in part on the ability of Democratic candidates to talk to voters about the issue in a way that will move them.

Campaigns have focused heavily on energy and the environment in their messages already: In House races, the topic is the second most common in television ads for candidates in both parties, according to an analysis from the Wesleyan Media Project.

Energy and environmental issues are mentioned in about a quarter of Democratic ads between June 20 and Aug. 7. The topic also figures in nearly 30% of GOP commercials over the same period — many of which blame Biden’s policies for increasing the price of gasoline.

Democratic candidates around the country have now altered their message to focus on the policy accomplishments of the new legislation, including provisions that would lower drug costs for many Americans, especially those older than 65.

Republicans say the bill contains unnecessary spending that will drive up inflation.

The bill is significantly pared down from an original Democratic proposal that included an array of social spending provisions ultimately rejected by Sen. Joe Manchin III (D-W.Va.), who holds tremendous sway as the party’s 50th vote in the equally divided Senate.

Senate Majority Leader Charles E. Schumer of New York says he still wants to go further, telling the Washington Post, “If we win, we’re going to have to do a reconciliation bill that will take care of a lot of the things that we couldn’t do.”

The Democrats are set to pass the bill just as the U.S. enters the most dangerous extreme weather period of the year, which is almost certain to produce wildfires, hurricanes and heat waves, all of which have become more common because of climate change.

“Those are all opportunities to remind people why this issue is so important, and why the action that they just took — although it’s not enough — is the first major investment that the United States has made in addressing the problem,” Leiserowitz said.

The latest from Washington

— Even after a surprise deal between Manchin and Schumer on the reconciliation bill was announced last month, its survival looked questionable at moments. Jennifer Haberkorn and Ian James pulled back the curtain on negotiations between Democratic leaders and Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D-Ariz.), who was the final holdout on the bill. Her last-minute efforts added $4 billion to address the water crisis along the Colorado River as the region endures its most intense drought in centuries. Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.) said the funding is “absolutely critical for Southern California, particularly in the inland areas.”

— Speaking of inflation reduction, inflation slowed last month, with the cost of gas and other goods falling for the first time in months. The annual rate of inflation in July ticked down to 8.5% — from 9.1% in June, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. As Don Lee reports, that comes as welcome news to the Democrats and Biden, whose public approval ratings have suffered as the costs of goods and services have increased.

— Under scrutiny after federal authorities raided Trump’s home in Florida, Atty. Gen. Merrick Garland said Thursday that the Department of Justice is moving to make public the warrant that led to the search, along with an itemized receipt of what was taken. As Sarah D. Wire reports, the statement was a rare move for the department, which seldom comments on ongoing investigations. Garland also said he personally approved the search of Trump’s home.

— Cryptocurrency billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried has vowed to spend a stunning amount of money on American politics — as much as $1 billion. The 30-year-old has said he wants to encourage lawmakers to better prepare for the next pandemic, but Freddy Brewster reports that many of Bankman-Fried’s activities on Capitol Hill, where he has become a familiar figure, have focused on regulation of his company and of the crypto industry that made him rich.

— Biden signed legislation on Wednesday that will expand healthcare services for veterans who were exposed to toxic burn pits. As Anumita Kaur reports, that came as a personal victory to the family of Jennifer Kepner, a California veteran who died four years ago, at 37, after the Department of Veterans Affairs rejected her requests for benefits to support her treatment.

— A lot is on the line in the midterm elections, including for American labor unions. As Noah Bierman and Don Lee report, unions’ moment of opportunity could be slipping away with the GOP poised to gain seats in the midterms and the potential for a recession that could wipe away the rare leverage workers have held in a tight labor market.

The latest from California

— Padilla weighed in on the Los Angeles mayoral contest on behalf of Rep. Karen Bass, who holds the backing of much of the Democratic establishment in her race against billionaire developer Rick Caruso. Julia Wick reports that Padilla spoke alongside Rep. Tony Cárdenas, Assembly member Luz Rivas and Los Angeles City Council President Nury Martinez to back Bass.

— A Super PAC seeking to mobilize Asian American and Pacific Islander voters ahead of November has been backing a trio of Democrats in Orange County. Priscella Vega reports that Justice Unites Us plans to tap into small-business hubs like grocery stores, dry cleaners, and convenience to help with voter outreach.

— Finally, be sure to read Vega’s Column One piece, which powerfully tells the story of one Mexican Catholic family in Orange County that has a complicated history with the issue of abortion rights.

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