Essential Politics: Politics in a time of mourning

It’s the nature of political analysis to overestimate the impact that news has on a presidential campaign. We won’t know for a while whether the horrific events of this past week prove to be definitive moments.

My colleague Cathy Decker took an excellent first look at the effect the week’s carnage could have. So, beyond that, let’s take a look at where the race stood before shots rang out over the streets of Dallas on Thursday night.

Good afternoon, I’m David Lauter, Washington bureau chief. Welcome to the Friday edition of our Essential Politics newsletter, in which we look at the events of the week in the presidential campaign and highlight some particularly insightful stories.

AN END TO EMAIL

The week began dramatically, with the statement by James B. Comey, the director of the FBI, that the bureau had finished its investigation into Hillary Clinton’s handling of classified information in her emails and would not recommend any criminal prosecutions.

As Mark Barabak noted, Comey’s announcement removed the single greatest threat to Clinton’s campaign, but it came with a harsh scolding that would provide opponents with much to use against her.

The two-sided nature of the FBI’s assessment – careless, but not criminal – posed a dilemma for Republicans: Should they attack the FBI for not recommending prosecution of Clinton or praise Comey for his tough assessment of her conduct?

By Thursday, when Republicans confronted Comey at a House Oversight Committee hearing, it was clear that they had chosen to attack. Members of the committee repeatedly suggested that the FBI had adopted a double standard that treated Clinton more favorably than other Americans.

As political strategy, that seemed questionable: the approach put Comey in the position of repeatedly explaining why Clinton had violated no laws, rather than focusing on his judgment that she had handled classified material negligently. But it came as another example of the corners Republicans have often backed themselves into by promising their voters results – in this case a Clinton indictment – that they could not reasonably expect to deliver.

DEMOCRATIC UNITY MOVES

While the email investigation wrapped up, Clinton and Sen. Bernie Sanders took several more steps toward the final reconciliation and endorsement that are now expected to happen on Tuesday.

The most public step came when Clinton unveiled a new plan to help families pay for college. As Chris Megerian wrote, the announcement moved her closer to Sanders’ call for universal free tuition and drew an unusual warm statement of praise from the Vermont senator.

The two seem likely to make a joint appearance in New Hampshire, where Clinton is scheduled to be Tuesday. But by then, Barabak and Megerian explained, the Sanders endorsement may be an anticlimax. Many Democrats are starting to feel “Berned out,” they wrote, and Sanders may have overestimated his leverage.

Megerian will be covering the final session of the Democratic platform committee meetings this weekend, so look for updates from him on Trail Guide on what further concessions, if any, the Sanders side wins.

While the Clinton-Sanders negotiations continue, the presumptive nominee headed for North Carolina with President Obama, showing off Obama’s role as endorser in chief, as Evan Halper wrote. Obama’s earnest endorsement of Clinton and evident desire to campaign for her stand in sharp contrast to other, recent two-term presidents who either were too unpopular to effectively stump for their erstwhile successors or not on good enough terms to want to.

REPUBLICAN TENSIONS AND THE SEARCH FOR A RUNNING MATE

Donald Trump should have had a good week, with Clinton being excoriated by the head of the FBI. But, as has been true for weeks, he managed to turn the focus back on himself.

First came the controversy over a Twitter message that labeled Clinton as corrupt and showed her face next to a pile of cash and what appeared to be a Star of David. As he fended off accusations that his campaign was trafficking in anti-Semitic stereotypes, Trump praised Saddam Hussein, saying the late Iraqi dictator had done a good job of battling terrorists.

On Thursday, with those memories still fresh, Trump went to Capitol Hill, where he had a friendly meeting with House Republicans and a more fraught one with GOP senators.

The GOP doubts about Trump could also be seen in the steady parade of leading political figures who publicly have said they were not interested in being considered as Trump’s running mate. This week, Sens. Bob Corker of Tennessee and Jodi Ernst of Iowa took themselves off the list.

Ever wonder how much the vice presidential nominee matters? Barabak took a good look at the myth of the home-state advantage.

OTHER STORIES OF NOTE

Noah Bierman and Brian Bennett took a look at the immigration hawks, once marginalized in the GOP, who have moved into prominence with the Trump campaign.

Lisa Mascaro explored how Trump has roiled the debate over trade.

And Decker analyzed how the flaws Trump and Clinton have displayed over the past week could continue to create trouble for them in the White House.

A NOTABLE POLL

The Pew Research Center published an extremely interesting poll this week. It showed that voters are deeply engaged in this election and feel it matters deeply, even though they don’t particularly like their choices. Check out my story for more on what the poll had to say about how voters are viewing the campaign and making up their minds.

DON’T FORGET THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

The popular vote is all very well – just ask Al Gore – but gaining the presidency requires winning enough states to get 270 electoral votes. How to get there? Play political strategist for yourself, and try out as many scenarios as you like on our electoral map.

QUESTIONS ABOUT TRUMP, CLINTON? WE’VE GOT ANSWERS

Where they stand on issues, what they’ve done in their lives, their successes, their failures, what their presidencies might look like: We’ve been writing about Clinton and Trump for years, and we’ve pulled the best of that content together to make finding what you want to know easier. So check out All Things Trump and All Things Clinton.

LOGISTICS

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That wraps up this week. My colleague Christina Bellantoni will be back Monday with the weekday edition of Essential Politics. Until then, keep track of all the developments in the 2016 campaign with our Trail Guide, at our Politics page and on Twitter @latimespolitics.

Send your comments, suggestions and news tips to [email protected].

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