Newsletter: Essential Politics: Can Trump get his groove back?

I’m Christina Bellantoni. This is Essential Politics.

The week starts with questions — was Donald Trump’s late Friday effort endorsing three respected members of the Republican Party enough to stem GOP defections? And how much danger does his party detect?

As the New York Times reported Sunday, some groups worried about congressional losses on Nov. 8 already are envisioning a scenario where they run political ads based on the assumption of a Clinton presidency, suggesting Republicans should get votes to be a check on a Democratic White House.

Javier Panzar reported on the California Republicans starting to see down-ballot effects of Trump being their nominee. The Modesto Bee’s editorial board said last week that it can’t support Rep. Jeff Denham’s reelection bid because he won’t plainly say whether he supports Trump, and the Republican Mayor of Lancaster said he plans to support Democrat Bryan Caforio because of Rep. Steve Knight’s tacit support for Trump and because Knight supports using natural gas.

At the national level, the indications at this point in the race aren’t good for the billionaire businessman. As David Lauter explained on Sunday’s front page, Trump has seen a steep drop in support from some core constituencies, while more people have firmly made up their minds.

More than 1 in 5 white voters soured on him, for example, as did a similar share of voters older than 65, in our USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times national tracking poll. One in 5 voters overall grew significantly less supportive of Trump.

(More info on our daily tracking poll is here.)

But we’re still 91 days from the election, and so much of what happens will be determined on the ground in the critical swing states.

Cathleen Decker spent last week in Ohio, finding it like no other state when it comes to Republican dysfunction. The popular Republican Gov. John Kasich stiffed Trump at the home-state convention and now regularly dismisses him on Twitter. Trump has threatened to retaliate by raising money to squash Kasich’s future ambitions.

Kasich on Sunday said he can’t back either Clinton or Trump.

(You can track the full spectrum from all aboard the Trump Train to Republicans who’ve announced they are “with her,” on our nifty interactive.)

The state’s Republican Sen. Rob Portman, running for reelection, has stuck with his endorsement of the party’s nominee but has yet to appear in public with him. Instead, Portman has upbraided Trump repeatedly, and his campaign recently sent aides to search for potential supporters at Clinton rallies.

Decker writes that all that would be merely familial squabbling if not for Ohio’s frequent role as the decider in presidential contests. It is a must-win state for Trump; a loss here would almost certainly deny him the presidency.

NOT A GOOD FORUM

Clinton struggled to reconcile her previous public statements about the handling of sensitive information over a private email server with the critical assessment offered by the director of the Federal Bureau of Investigation in an appearance before black and Latino journalists that could have marked the end of what has been arguably the best week of Hillary Clinton’s campaign.

Reporters pushed Clinton about taking more questions from her traveling press.

Trump, meanwhile, used applause at the event as evidence the media is biased for the Democratic nominee. He kept up his attacks Saturday.

Get the latest from the campaign trail on Trail Guide and follow @latimespolitics. Check our daily USC Dornsife/Los Angeles Times tracking poll at the top of the politics page.

JERRY BROWN’S CLIMATE FIGHT

The push to extend California climate programs is looking like a long shot this year.

Gov. Jerry Brown and top lawmakers haven’t reached a consensus on a strategy to push the measures through the Legislature, and some Democrats remain skeptical of the benefits. So Brown is already looking down the road to other opportunities, Melanie Mason and Chris Megerian report, including the possibility of a ballot fight in 2018.

STANFORD RAPE CASE INSPIRES DEBATE IN SACRAMENTO

The trend in California has been for lawmakers to reduce mandatory sentences for criminals, citing the proliferation of three-strikes laws and others like them to the booming prison population. But when public outrage followed a six-month jail sentence for a Stanford University student convicted of sexual assault, state Democrats decided to quickly author legislation to require mandatory prison terms for those convicted in future cases. The supporters of the new bill say sexual assault convictions should all require prison time.

News out of Sacramento is happening at a fast pace this month. Keep an eye on our Essential Politics news feed for the very latest.

TIFF OVER SENATE DEBATES

California Atty. Gen. Kamala Harris’ campaign put out the word early Friday morning that she’s agreed to two debates with U.S. Senate rival Rep. Loretta Sanchez of Orange County — and the congresswoman’s campaign was not happy about it.

Phil Willon reports that Sanchez political consultant Bill Carrick blasted the Harris campaign for “arrogantly announcing” there would be only two debates when Sanchez wants more. Harris campaign consultant Sean Clegg said Carrick should stop “whining.” Just imagine what the candidates will say to each other when they’re finally on the debate stage.

HANGMAN FOR HILLARY TWEET

An official with the Riverside County Republican Party landed in hot water after he sent out a tweet Wednesday, via the local party’s official twitter account, showing a shrouded hangman with a noose next to the phrase “I’m ready for Hillary.”

The next day, the man in question, Nathan Miller, resigned from his job as an aide to state Board of Equalization member Diane Harkey. The chairman of the local party, Scott Mann, initially told the Press Enterprise that the tweet was nothing more than “political satire.” A few hours later he changed his mind, saying he was “horrified” by the tweet.

LAWMAKERS MOVE TO LIMIT POLICE FROM TAKING PEOPLE’S PROPERTY WITHOUT A CONVICTION

Last week, major law enforcement groups dropped their opposition to a bill from state Sen. Holly Mitchell (D-Los Angeles) that aims to make it harder for police to permanently take property without a criminal conviction, Liam Dillon reports. Mitchell agreed to amend her bill so that only property worth less than $40,000 would need an accompanying criminal conviction to be seized permanently, while amounts more than that could still use a lower burden of proof, such as those in civil cases. If the deal passes the Legislature, an expert says it will be, “one of the strongest reforms enacted in any state.”

MAKING IT EASIER FOR YOUNG HUMAN TRAFFICKING VICTIMS?

Taking the witness stand against abusers can cause young human trafficking victims to relive trauma and fall into deep depression, social workers and prosecutors say. Of the some two dozen human trafficking bills still pending at the state Capitol, at least one proposal seeks to ease that burden on children and teens by allowing minors 15 or younger to testify through closed-circuit televisions outside the courtroom.

The legislation has support from advocates and some law enforcement agencies, but the ACLU says it erodes the right of a defendant to confront their accusers.

PODCAST: SACRAMENTO’S TO-DO LIST

As we’ve been reporting on our Essential Politics news feed, lawmakers are back at the state Capitol for the final big push on legislation before they adjourn for the year on Aug. 31.

John Myers leads a discussion on this week’s California Politics Podcast of the complicated politics ahead on several big issues, from climate change to affordable housing and beyond. This week’s episode also examines how lawmakers are pondering what to do, if anything, over the absence of Assemblyman Roger Hernández (D-West Covina) in the wake of domestic violence accusations.

TODAY’S ESSENTIALS

— Prosecutors in the campaign finance case against Sacramento County Rep. Ami Bera’s father are opposed to a recommendation that Babulal Bera be eligible for only probation. The elder Bera, who pleaded guilty to funneling money to his son’s campaign, is scheduled to be sentenced next week.

— “Being despondent and inactive is not going to improve anything,” Sen. Bernie Sanders writes to his supporters in an op-ed for The Times.

— After Trump’s rough week, we checked back in with fervent supporters from our Trump Nation series. They have not been swayed away from their man.

— A bill that aims to speed up the development of mega-projects across the state, including likely four in Los Angeles, received its first approval on the floor of the Assembly.

— The campaign committee for an initiative to legalize the recreational use of marijuana filed a lawsuit alleging the ballot arguments by the measure’s opponents contain multiple “false and/or misleading statements.”

— California voters rejected a Central Valley tribal casino project in 2014, but federal officials have nonetheless now given the project a green light. Even so, the North Fork Rancheria of Mono Indians still have multiple lawsuits against their effort to build a casino and hotel alongside Highway 99 outside the city of Madera.

— A group opposed to new gun control laws is suing the state for successfully demanding the removal of a blog post that listed the home addresses of legislators who voted for California’s newest measures. The lawsuit is being funded by the Firearms Policy Coalition on behalf of one of the group’s members, who is listed in the lawsuit under the pseudonym “Publius” and writes a blog called the “The Real Write Wringer.” The blog recently published the names, home addresses and home phone numbers of 40 legislators who voted for a sweeping gun control package in June, saying the officials “decided to make you a criminal if you don’t abide by their dictates. So below is the current tyrant registry.”

— Someone hacked a road sign in San Diego with a nasty message about Trump.

— Who will win the November election? Give our Electoral College map a spin.

LOGISTICS

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