Here’s an hour-by-hour guide that will help you navigate election night
Reporting from Washington — Americans may say they’re disgusted with this election and not particularly fond of either Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump. But the numbers belie those sentiments: The nominees’ debates set viewership records, perhaps a form of electoral rubbernecking, and many states set early-voting records. The Clinton campaign even predicted a possible national turnout record.
So the chances are good that you’re one of the millions who will monitor the results tonight more closely than in any election before.
Though Clinton has a lead of a few percentage points in several national polls — and The Times predicted she will win the presidency with 352 electoral votes — the outcome is far from certain.
Here’s an hour-by-hour guide that will help you navigate the day once polls start to close. All times Pacific:
2 p.m.
The first national exit polls are released around now. We’ll get our first window into what voters’ top concerns were, and how different subsets of the electorate voted. Did the youth vote turn out? How big might the gender gap be? Did a jump in Latino turnout offset a drop-off in the African American vote? All of these could be important clues into who won the election.
We won’t get a projection of the national vote or in individual states; that information is held until polls close in each state. But you may notice a shift in rhetoric from on-air personalities who know what the data will show. They could begin predicting a long night for Hillary Clinton, for example.
Here’s a good explainer from the Pew Research Center on how exit polls are conducted.
3 p.m.
We’re off and running as the first polls close, in Kentucky and Indiana. But both states straddle two time zones, so don’t expect projections until all the polls in those states close, an hour later.
4 p.m.
The first real wave of poll closings comes, including six states that are up for grabs. The biggest: Virginia, where Clinton has led in polls, followed by a state where polls are closer than expected: Georgia. The quicker the call in Virginia and the later the call in Georgia, the better the night is shaping up well for Clinton. Reverse those two, and the same applies to Trump.
Most of the polls in Florida close as well, save for the Panhandle counties that are in Central time, so the state’s result won’t be announced yet.
4:30 p.m.
O-H! I-O! And North Carolina! You probably won’t see projections on these states for hours. But the returns will start coming in, and both campaigns will be eager to see whether the early vote is tallied quickly and how they match their internal projections.
5 p.m.
This is the biggest poll closing time: 17 states and the District of Columbia. Most of them are solidly blue states like Massachusetts and Maryland or solidly red like Oklahoma and Mississippi and will be called quickly. The key states to watch this hour are New Hampshire and Pennsylvania, plus Florida.
The first electoral college quirk reveals itself this hour too. Maine is one of two states, along with Nebraska, that awards electors both on a statewide basis and by congressional district. Maine’s 2nd District is seen as an opportunity for Trump to pick off one electoral vote. The returns there could be key in a close election.
5:30 p.m.
The polls close in Arkansas. Clinton might have been the state’s first lady, but don’t expect her to carry Arkansas.
6 p.m.
The map moves west. Key closings come in Colorado and Arizona, where Latinos may be the force that tips the state — and perhaps the election — toward Clinton.
Polls also close in Michigan, which has emerged as a late target for both campaigns — Trump to encroach on Democratic turf and Clinton to cut off any viable path for her rival. In 2012, the Associated Press called Michigan for Obama in two minutes. Again here, the longer the wait for a call in Michigan, the longer the wait for a result nationally.
In terms of popular vote, this is the hour in which the raw number of votes really begins to accumulate, as polls close in New York and Texas. Republican nominees have tended to jump out to an early popular vote lead and then watch it recede as the more populous urban areas report their numbers. The biggest electoral prize, of course, is still two hours away. So an early Trump lead in the national popular vote might not be an indicator of an upset.
7 p.m.
One of the states that Obama won twice but Clinton is most likely to lose is Iowa, which will report results this hour. Team Trump seems most confident of its first blue-to-red call coming here.
The other big closing to watch is Nevada, where Democrats’ confidence jumped as early vote totals accumulated. It’s also a key in the battle for the Senate; Republicans have their best chance to win a Democratic-held seat. Once that race is called, we could have our answer as to whether Democrats regain control of the chamber after losing it in 2014.
The wild card: Utah. Independent candidate Evan McMullin, a Mormon, has turned the state into a three-way race and could become the first person outside the major-party nominees to win electoral votes since 1968.
8 p.m.
California weighs in, and the polls will be closed in all 48 contiguous states. This is likely the earliest hour that the networks and the AP will decide they have enough information to declare a winner. In 2008, outlets projected Sen. Barack Obama as the president-elect immediately at the top of the hour. The Golden State’s 55 electoral votes made sure of that. In 2012, it took a bit longer, with the decisive moment coming about 15 minutes past with the call of Ohio for Obama.
California is all but certain to go for Clinton and will elect a Democrat to the U.S. Senate. There are some key House races worth keeping an eye on here, and if Republican turnout is depressed here because of early calls for Clinton on the East Coast, it could help tip some contests toward the Democrats and help them narrow the margin in the House.
10 p.m.
Still into the race? Polls close in Alaska, a state that has seen a dearth of polling but is seen as safely Trump’s. But if at this point we haven’t heard a concession speech from either candidate, we’ll be more closely looking at outstanding precincts in battleground states than what’s happening in Anchorage.
For more 2016 campaign coverage, follow @mikememoli on Twitter
Our final map has Clinton winning with 352 electoral votes. Compare your picks with ours.
Did Trump’s staff really take away his Twitter privileges? Here’s one clue
Win or lose tomorrow, the Democrats face a serious battle over identity
More to Read
Get the L.A. Times Politics newsletter
Deeply reported insights into legislation, politics and policy from Sacramento, Washington and beyond. In your inbox three times per week.
You may occasionally receive promotional content from the Los Angeles Times.