With Paul Ryan’s election as House speaker, what’s next for Kevin McCarthy?

Reporting from Washington —  House Majority Leader Kevin McCarthy seemed to have the top job in Congress all but locked up before he shocked his colleagues earlier this month and announced he was withdrawing his bid to become speaker of the House.

On Thursday, Rep. Paul D. Ryan was elected House speaker. The vote for Ryan comes more than a month after Speaker John A. Boehner abruptly announced he would resign rather than continue fighting his conservative flank. It was that same hard-right faction that doomed McCarthy’s candidacy.

McCarthy, a Bakersfield Republican, will now try to return to the position he won faster than anyone since the late 19th century — the No. 2 job in the House.

But whether he can remain effective in that job depends, as almost everything in Washington does these days, on how the politics work out.

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Why did he take himself out of the running? Didn’t he have it in the bag?

McCarthy’s main asset was that he was next in line after Boehner’s announcement that he was stepping down, and that gave him, at least initially, a sense of inevitability. But the conservative hard-liners who withheld their support from McCarthy were capable of creating a messy fight on the House floor, throwing further chaos into the process. And chaos was McCarthy’s enemy.

The rebellious members made it clear to him that if he had managed to prevail, the hard-liners planned to file official motions to remove him on a regular basis, forcing him to stand for reelection perpetually. That was going to leave little room for policy.

Add to that McCarthy’s big gaffe, a seeming concession that Republicans investigating the siege that killed four Americans in Benghazi, Libya, in 2012 were motivated by politics, rather than the search for the truth. Colleagues said McCarthy apologized again for the statements — which Democrat Hillary Rodham Clinton has been using to insulate her presidential campaign from an unrelated scandal over her email — during a closed-door meeting of the House GOP on Friday.

Wasn’t there a backup plan for the speaker’s job once McCarthy took himself out?

No. As we’ve seen in recent years in Congress, there is never a backup plan. That’s been the hallmark of the unrest. The multiple factions in the GOP have been unable to coalesce around a single person.

What will McCarthy do next?

McCarthy said he plans to hold onto his job as majority leader and remain in Congress. The rules allow him to stay in that job at least until the current Congress ends after the 2016 election. But he will need to regain his grip on the political aspects of the job to remain effective. And given the chaos of the current Congress, little is certain. Another leadership upheaval remains possible.

Will he consider leaving his seat?

It’s not uncommon for leaders who have served in leadership positions to retire from Congress once they realize they will either be leaving the speakership or will never get it.

McCarthy is 50 and has served in the House fewer than nine years. If he wants to remain in politics he would have few other options. California’s soon-to-be-open Senate seat, held by retiring Democrat Barbara Boxer, is unlikely to be won by a Republican. Most other elected jobs would be significant demotions. He has already served as minority leader in the California Assembly.

Will he still have clout in Congress?

Lawmakers were still processing his announcement this week and were trying to put the best face on it.

“I suspect he can keep the position,” said Rep. Jeff Fortenberry, a Nebraska Republican. “He didn’t ask to be speaker. The opportunity cast itself upon him, and he chose to seek the opportunity.”

Fortenberry talked about McCarthy’s humility. And he is well liked by others, including those who resisted his rise to the speaker’s chair. He has raised money for most of his colleagues and recruited a large number of them to run for office.

But McCarthy’s own rise will no longer be viewed the same way. Part of his power came from the knowledge that he might someday be speaker. That seems highly unlikely now. And the reason he could not become speaker was his inability to unite his colleagues.

Rebellious members who pushed Boehner to resign wanted new leadership, and McCarthy was seen as part of the old team. The usual levers of power, the ability to reward followers and instill fear, have both taken a big hit.

What other factors could affect his ability to do the job?

The biggest is the question of who the next speaker will be. McCarthy’s relationship with Boehner’s successor will be important in determining what influence he wields.

Another major issue is the fractured nature of the House. Conservative insurgents, about 40 Republicans, who tormented Boehner throughout his tenure are the same ones who denied McCarthy the gavel.

They are now even bolder, realizing the extent of their power, and are unlikely to let McCarthy forget that. Other members who supported McCarthy faced criticism at home because he was seen as insufficiently conservative.

That pressure could continue to play out as long as McCarthy remains in leadership.

Will he remain powerful at home?

Yes. Leaders from McCarthy’s heavily Republican district were angry and disappointed that he did not become speaker, but they do not appear angry at him.

A challenger in his district would have a very difficult time. McCarthy has never had a tough race, and he maintains one of the biggest fundraising operations in the country. He is also seen as a champion of conservative causes that matter in his district, particularly drought legislation that would bring more water to Central Valley farmers.

The silver lining for McCarthy?

It isn’t personal. No one in Congress can command consensus from the Republican Party. So whoever joins him in the leadership ranks will face similar pressures.

McCarthy had burgers Thursday night with his family. Friday, in a brief chat in the Capitol hallway, McCarthy said: “It was the best ... I could sleep through the night in the last two weeks.”

“It’s a lot of pressure,” he added.

Asked why he was getting applause during the House GOP meeting Friday morning, McCarthy laughed. “Not running,” he said.

Another lawmaker said that, during the morning meeting, McCarthy seemed “relieved.”

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Twitter: @noahbierman

Lisa Mascaro in the Washington bureau contributed to this report.

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