Hollywood’s most exclusive club is about to get bigger and more diverse again: Five things to watch for

According to a Times analysis conducted in July, in a single stroke, the 2016 class of invitees took the academy 52% of the way toward its goal of doubling the number of nonwhites in its ranks. As for boosting the representation of women, however, the academy slightly lagged behind pace; the 2016 class brought the academy only about a fifth of the way toward its 2020 target.

For the academy to meet its own 2020 goals, The Times has estimated that in the next three years the organization will have to invite 85 people of color to become members each year – a seemingly manageable number given that there were some 280 nonwhites in last year’s class alone.

Hitting the target in terms of female members, however, may prove a higher hurdle. The Times estimates that the academy will need to add 395 women to its ranks per year to reach its target – significantly more than the 314 it invited in 2016.

Given the persistent lack of diversity in the film industry as a whole, some think that the challenge of diversifying the academy’s membership could grow more difficult, not easier. A 2016 report by the USC Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism starkly outlined an “inclusion crisis” at the major studios, where directors are 97% male and 87% white, while women hold 21% of top executive positions and nonwhite actors earn just 27% of speaking roles.

As the study’s authors bluntly put it, “The film industry still functions as a straight, white boys’ club.”

3. A number of relatively fresh faces and people best known from TV are likely to make the cut. Still, the academy insists it isn’t changing its standards for membership.

Along with many longtime industry vets, last year’s class included a number of younger people who have only come onto the scene in the last few years, like “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” star John Boyega, as well as some who may be better known for their work in television than in film, such as Tina Fey and America Ferrera.

The academy prides itself on representing the cream of the crop in the film industry. While membership requirements vary among the individual branches, the academy’s overarching mandate states that candidates must have “demonstrated exceptional achievement in the field of theatrical motion pictures.”

Given the historic underrepresentation of women and minorities in Hollywood, however, some have expressed doubt that the academy’s diversity goals can be met without the risk of changing these membership requirements. In an interview with The Times in 2016, former academy President Hawk Koch called the targets “impossible” to reach, saying, “There aren’t that many qualified people, period, of any race or gender, to invite each year.”

But even as the boundary between film and television continues to blur, the academy leadership has consistently maintained it will not alter the criteria for membership. Hudson says she is confident that there are still many highly qualified film industry professionals out there who have yet to be brought into the fold.

“There are so many artists who were not admitted in the past because we had a limit on how many new members we invited each year,” she told The Times last month. “So with the elimination of those [quotas] and the aggressive pursuit of excellence by all of our members, I think we will be able to expand in a more inclusive way for several years.”

4. Much of that expansion will continue to come from outside of the United States.

In recent years, as part of its effort to transform itself into a more international organization, the academy has supplemented its traditional membership process with a global recruitment campaign. Of last year’s class, more than 40% of the new members came from abroad – both established filmmakers and actors like J.A. Bayona and Alicia Vikander as well as many people far less well known to American moviegoers – representing 59 countries around the globe.

Not only does such a global expansion broaden the academy’s pool of potential members, bringing its diversity goals closer within reach, but it furthers the group’s mission to become the preeminent organization representing the film community around the world, not just in Los Angeles.

For foreign invitees, such as Saudi filmmaker Haifaa Mansour, who was invited to join last year, being brought into Hollywood’s most exclusive club can be a life-changing experience. “Sometimes as a woman, and especially one from a foreign country, it gets hard for them to find a project that fits you as a director,” Mansour told The Times last year. “[The academy] is the most prestigious organization in the world. It anchors you in. It makes me more relevant. People actually take you seriously.”

But, as the academy extends its reach across the globe, it remains to be seen to what extent this more international membership may or may not be reflected in the kinds of films and performances that earn Oscar recognition.