Emmys 2024: ‘Baby Reindeer’ has the numbers — and, soon, the Emmys

Not long after I returned from visiting my daughter in Madrid in April, I logged on to Netflix to see what I had missed while I was overseas. Now, it’s not altogether unusual that a glance at the platform’s “Top 10 TV shows in the U.S. Today” row yields some unfamiliar results. “Too Hot to Handle,” on the list as I write this, is now in its sixth season, and for all I know, it’s a reality series about testing cookware.

Seeing a series titled “Baby Reindeer” at the No. 1 spot piqued my interest. Strange title. Maybe a reality show following a caribou breeder in Alaska? Could be a cute nature program. Who doesn’t want to see a bunch of adorable baby reindeer learning to walk?

The next day, a publicist called.

Have you seen “Baby Reindeer”? No. But I see it’s the No. 1 show on Netflix. I’ll have to check it out.

The next day, the same publicist rang again.

“Did you watch ‘Baby Reindeer’?” Dude. It’s been one night.

The next day, I watched “Baby Reindeer.” And the day after that, I finished watching “Baby Reindeer.” Seven episodes, most of them running about a half-hour. Initially, it looks like a horror story about a stalker hounding Donny, a sad-sack bartender who harbors dreams of becoming a comic. But it quickly becomes deeper and more complex, as Donny’s own behavior becomes erratic, fueled by self-loathing and neediness rooted in shame.

And then you get to that fourth episode and you find out why it took Donny so long to report the stalker. Watching it was the closest I’ve ever come to pausing or flat-out stopping a TV show because what I was seeing was so horrifying and painful to witness. It makes the Christmas Eve dinner flashback episode of “The Bear” feel like a Hallmark holiday movie.

And yet, nearly everyone I know watched “Baby Reindeer.” I have neighbors who have seen it twice. And they weren’t alone. “Baby Reindeer” reached Netflix’s top 10 TV charts in 92 countries. Three months after its premiere, it had racked up 88.4 million views.

Have you seen “Baby Reindeer”? Do I even need to ask? Certainly, if you’re one of the 24,000 Television Academy members voting for the Emmys, it’s a rhetorical question. Even with the headlines surrounding the self-proclaimed real-life stalker suing Netflix for defamation, the show is poised to win big at the Emmys this year. For a niche series that wasn’t on anyone’s radar four months ago, that’s a remarkable story.

“Baby Reindeer”
“Fargo”
“Lessons in Chemistry”
“Ripley”
“True Detective: Night Country”

Winner: “Baby Reindeer”

When you see a “This is a true story” title card before a TV show or movie, do you think this is 100% the way things went down? Or are you more thinking that there’s a certain emotional truth at work? In a court filing, “Baby Reindeer” creator Richard Gadd wrote, “It is not a documentary or an attempt at realism. While the [s]eries is based on my life and real-life events ... it is not a beat-by-beat recounting of the events and emotions I experienced as they transpired. It is fictionalized, and is not intended to portray actual facts.”

The lawsuit is distracting, but it’s hard to envision a path by which another nominated series can hurdle “Baby Reindeer’s” potent combination of viewership and critical acclaim. The gorgeous, meticulously crafted “Ripley” is the better show, one that I’d be tempted to watch again. I doubt it can win, though.

Jodie Foster, “True Detective: Night Country”
Brie Larson, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Juno Temple, “Fargo”
Sofía Vergara, “Griselda”
Naomi Watts, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”

Winner: Foster

All the good will Jodie Foster earned while campaigning for her Oscar-nominated turn in “Nyad” should carry over here, particularly for a role that saw her returning to eerie, atmospheric crime-solving horror. Foster has picked up many honors over the years — two Oscars, four Golden Globes, a SAG award, plus career tributes — but never an Emmy. In fact, this is her first nomination. Expect a big ovation when she wins.

Matt Bomer, “Fellow Travelers”
Richard Gadd, “Baby Reindeer”
Jon Hamm, “Fargo”
Tom Hollander, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Andrew Scott, “Ripley”

Winner: Scott

Gadd earned three nominations for “Baby Reindeer” — lead actor, writer and executive producer. Unlike the Oscars, where members choose the winners in all categories, the Emmys are decided by peer groups within each field. Actors vote for actors, writers vote for writing and everyone decides series. So it’s not like a member of the actors branch looks at Gadd on the ballot and thinks, “OK, I can check off his name for writing ‘Baby Reindeer’ and vote for the series, but I’m going to go with Andrew Scott for ‘Ripley.’”

Am I just procrastinating here in making a prediction? Maaaybe. I am wondering, though, if there are enough voters in this category who assume Gadd will win elsewhere to give this Emmy to Scott for his masterful turn as the antihero in “Ripley.” This is the third time Scott has dazzled on TV, following earlier turns as the boyishly seductive priest on “Fleabag” and the anarchic villain Moriarty on “Sherlock.” Time for an Emmy?

Dakota Fanning, “Ripley”
Lily Gladstone, “Under the Bridge”
Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Aja Naomi King, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Diane Lane, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”
Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer”
Kali Reis, “True Detective: Night Country”

Winner: Gunning

I’d love to see Reis holding an Emmy alongside her “True Detective” co-star Foster after the ceremony. The former world champion boxer brought such a raw intensity and presence to her portrayal of Iñupiat state trooper Evangeline Navarro. But I suspect Gunning will be hard to beat here for the way she invested such empathy into the stalker on “Baby Reindeer.” The series is unimaginable without her.

Jonathan Bailey, “Fellow Travelers”
Robert Downey Jr., “The Sympathizer”
Tom Goodman-Hill, “Baby Reindeer”
John Hawkes, “True Detective: North Country”
Lamorne Morris, “Fargo”
Lewis Pullman, “Lessons in Chemistry”
Treat Williams, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans”

Winner: Bailey

There was a time when Downey winning for his showy, multirole performance in “The Sympathizer” seemed a given. But his nomination was the series’ only recognition, which doesn’t indicate much enthusiasm. So perhaps he’ll just have to make do with the Oscar he won for “Oppenheimer.”

Playing the mentor-turned-abuser in “Baby Reindeer,” Goodman-Hill was a prominent part of that episode I mentioned earlier, the one I had the impulse to switch off. Good on voters for recognizing the quality of his insidious work. But the nomination might be the reward with the Emmy going to Bailey, a good actor delivering a career-best turn in Showtime’s decades-spanning queer romance “Fellow Travelers.”