Pebble Beach 2016: Monterey Auction action gets going

MONTEREY — Sales totals at this week’s Monterey classic car week auctions should fall a little below last year’s $396 million, says one of the industry’s keenest eyes.

But not much. Classic car insurer and valuer McKeel Hagerty, CEO of Hagerty Insurance Agency, believes totals may fall by 7% and land around $370 million.

Hagerty was watching the start of the annual Pebble Beach Tour D’Elegance — a stately, slow speed parade of the classic, vintage and antique cars that on Sunday will vie for top prizes at the Concours D’Elegance.

Hagerty, whose company insures many of those classic vehicles, said the drop may occur in part because there are fewer cars going under the gavel this year, and fewer of the ones here are expected to fetch more than $1 million — 123 this year, vs. 129 last.

The lower numbers won’t necessarily make for lower profits, though.

“The auction houses are smart,” Hagerty said in Pebble Beach. “They stack their auctions with the cars that are right for this crowd — which is a sports-car crowd.”

That means fewer American muscle cars and antique cars, but more European sports cars. Porsches especially, Hagerty said, are expected to hit high numbers.

This year could also see record numbers for what Hagerty calls “very modern supercars,” such as late model Ferraris and McLarens.

“We’re seeing really high numbers for a car like the (McLaren) P1,” Hargerty said. “It’s Ferraris, too. A vintage Ferrari collector will now try to buy an almost new F-12 or a La Ferrari. We weren’t seeing that before.”

Hagerty’s best guess for top car at this year’s car auctions? The 1956 Jaguar D-Type that likely will become the highest-priced English car ever sold at auction when RM Sotheby’s completes its auction Friday night. The car, which was a LeMans winner, could bring $20 million to $25 million, Hagerty said.

So could a 1939 Alfa Romeo 8C 2900B. Being sold by RM Sotheby’s from the Sam and Emily Mann collection, this sleek prewar convertible could best the Jaguar and be the most expensive car that trades hands this year.

Also worth watching is another RM Sotheby’s car, race car driver and designer Carroll Shelby’s personal CSX 2000. This V-8 Cobra, the very first of the Shelby Cobras, is expected to reach $10 million or more when RM Sotheby brings the gavel down.

Because of those cars and its deep bench of other exotics and classics, RM Sothebys should be the top auto-auction house this year, Hagerty said.

Gooding could also do very big numbers, if it makes a few key sales. So could Mecum, which Hagerty said is increasingly landing important, high-priced cars. This year, he said, Dana Mecum’s company is offering 26 vehicles that could go for $1 million apiece.

The risk is greater, Hagerty said, for companies whose bottom line rests on multiple sales of massively expensive cars.

“You miss a couple of big ones, and it hurts,” he said.

As Hagerty talked, the last of the first batch of historic vehicles was just heading off for its 17 Mile Drive circuit around Pebble Beach and Carmel. Hagerty waved at drivers he knew — he’s been a judge at the annual event for the last 15 years — and said he remains pleased that Pebble Beach continues its tradition of insisting that the Sunday prize-winners also be able to make the Wednesday drive.

“It drives some of the owners crazy, especially the restorers, but I love the fact that the cars can’t just be trailer queens,” he said. “They all have to be working cars.”