‘Avatar’ is likely to surpass ‘Titanic’ this week

After a strong Martin Luther King Day weekend there’s no doubt left that “Avatar” will surpass “Titanic” atop the box-office charts, but two new movies managed to find their audiences too.

The 3-D phenomenon “Avatar” raked in $54.6 million Friday through Monday in the U.S. and Canada, according to an estimate from distributor 20th Century Fox. The Denzel Washington action film “The Book of Eli” and the Peter Jackson-directed book adaptation “The Lovely Bones” had healthy nationwide openings of $38 million and $20.5 million, respectively. The Jackie Chan family comedy “The Spy Next Door,” meanwhile, had a so-so opening of $13 million.

“Avatar” also had another big weekend overseas, collecting $129 million from 112 territories. Its $14.5-million start in Italy, the last major country where it hadn’t yet launched, was the biggest ever for a film there, Fox said.

As of Monday, “Avatar” had grossed $1.12 billion internationally and $505.1 million domestically. Within the next week, it will probably surpass the $1.24 billion that “Titanic,” Cameron’s prior picture and still the most successful of all time worldwide, collected overseas. Shortly thereafter, it should pass the 1997 film’s domestic total of $600.8 million.

But far fewer people have seen “Avatar” than “Titanic.” Eleven years ago, ticket prices were a lot lower -- the most recent estimated average was $7.46, up from $4.69 in 1998. And most viewers are seeing “Avatar” on 3-D screens, which carry a surcharge of several dollars a ticket. “Avatar” has sold fewer than 70 million tickets in the U.S. and Canada; “Titanic” sold more than 125 million.

Still, “Avatar” seems to have plenty of gas left, given its small drop in ticket sales. Best director and best dramatic picture awards Sunday at the Golden Globes should help it with sophisticated moviegoers who don’t often attend big-budget, event pictures.

“I think it will sustain modest drops as we keep moving through awards season,” said Chris Aronson, executive vice president of domestic distribution for Fox.

“Eli” looks as if it will be a success for independent financier Alcon Entertainment, following its surprise hit “The Blind Side.” Produced for $80 million, the post-apocalyptic tale is off to a good start and received an average audience grade of B-plus, according to market research firm CinemaScore, so it should benefit from solid word of mouth.

Despite its religious themes, the movie didn’t play any better in smaller and mid-size markets the way “The Blind Side” has, said Dan Fellman, president of domestic distribution for Warner Bros., which released the movie for Alcon.

Despite a poor performance at three theaters over the last month, “The Lovely Bones” found the young female audience Paramount Pictures was targeting this weekend as it expanded nationwide.

The big question is whether the Peter Jackson-directed adaptation of the bestselling book will continue to play well or will quickly exhaust a small but fervent audience of teen girls and women in their early 20s. Mixed reviews and the movie’s poor performance in limited release indicate that it will not draw many adults.

Paramount hopes it has a smaller-scale “Twilight” on its hands, but with an average audience grade of B, it remains to be seen whether “Lovely Bones” will perform anything like the teen vampire sensation.

The Jackie Chan comedy “The Spy Next Door,” which Lionsgate released for financier Relativity Media, had a mediocre opening of $13 million over the long weekend. Moviegoers, mostly parents with young children, gave the movie a strong average grade of A-minus.

Of the films that opened last weekend, the romantic comedy “Leap Year” saw its ticket sales drop only 35%, making up a bit for its so-so start. Lionsgate’s horror movie “Daybreakers” plunged 68% from its stronger start, and Weinstein Co.’s Michael Cera comedy “Youth in Revolt” dropped off 56% after an already weak opening.

In limited release, the well-reviewed Leo Tolstoy biopic “The Last Station” opened to a solid $98,723 in three theaters after a one-week run to qualify for Oscar consideration late last year.

Big gains at the box office will be difficult in the next several months, because the winter of 2009 was huge.

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