Uganda’s lurking tyrant

UGANDA WAS FOR SO LONG a bleeding gash in the heart of Africa that the turnaround engineered by President Yoweri Museveni over the last two decades seems almost a miracle. Under Museveni, Uganda has established a solid and independent court system, tripled the size of its economy, doubled school enrollment and even reduced the devastating toll of AIDS. Although lawlessness and rebellion continue in the northern part of the country, Uganda is nothing like the slaughterhouse it was under Idi Amin in the 1970s or under Amin’s predecessor and immediate successor, Milton Obote.

Yet Museveni, one of the great hopes for an era of clean leadership on a continent that badly needs it, is in danger of destroying not only his international reputation -- critical in a nation where foreign aid has in the past accounted for nearly half the federal budget -- but his standing in the eyes of his own people. In the presidential campaign that culminates today, he has continually harassed his opponents and threatened to ignore the results if they don’t go his way.

Museveni’s strongest opponent is his longtime rival, Kizza Besigye, who ran an unsuccessful campaign against him in 2001. Two weeks after returning this fall from self-imposed exile in South Africa to run against Museveni, Besigye was arrested on charges of treason and rape; every time it seemed he was about to be released, he was hit with additional charges, including terrorism. He is finally out on bail but is so often called to court that an effective campaign is all but impossible.

Human Rights Watch has listed a distressing number of other abuses by Museveni’s government, such as violence and intimidation of political opponents by state security agents and a gross imbalance of campaign coverage by the state-owned media. Security at the polls today is being provided by government-funded militias, including one group commanded by a government minister who is running for parliament. The chances of a fair election are almost nil.

What’s especially disappointing is that Museveni doesn’t need to act like a strongman. Seeking a third term as president, Museveni is still highly popular, at least in the south, and would probably win without all the bullying. Perhaps his distrust of democratic institutions is understandable because in the past they have worked so poorly in Uganda, but trust is a two-way street; he is going a long way toward destroying Ugandans’ trust in him.

Monitors will be watching today’s election closely. If it is as unfair as Human Rights Watch expects, international donors should take note. Although Museveni has long been a darling of the industrialized world, attracting praise from Bill Clinton and George W. Bush, he is now showing a dictator-like mania for retaining power. Rather than direct contributions to the government, aid could be redirected to the United Nations and other international groups working in Uganda without seriously endangering those in need.