Deja Vu Not Quite All Over Again

Antonio Villaraigosa surged into the May 17 mayoral runoff by building on his 2001 showing, while incumbent James K. Hahn suffered a contraction in his vote -- including a collapse in black support -- that nearly cost him his job, an analysis of exit poll data shows.

A Los Angeles Times survey suggested the third-place finisher, Bob Hertzberg, failed to appeal much beyond his home turf in the San Fernando Valley and may have just barely missed the runoff by peaking too soon.

Nearly 3,000 interviews conducted citywide illustrated the underlying dynamics that shaped the outcome of Tuesday’s mayoral contest and pointed to the challenges Hahn and Villaraigosa face as they square off in a second round of balloting that reprises their fight four years ago.

Then as now, Villaraigosa finished atop a crowded field. On Tuesday, he garnered 33% of the vote to Hahn’s 24%, according to nearly complete returns -- an improvement over 2001, when he beat Hahn 30% to 25% in the first round of voting.

Hertzberg just missed securing the second spot, finishing Tuesday with 22% of the vote.

Villaraigosa, a city councilman whose district stretches from south of Boyle Heights to Eagle Rock, expanded his support among whites, blacks and independents while carrying the Latino vote by an overwhelming margin, as he did four years ago.

His support extended across the length and breadth of the city, with Villaraigosa carrying the Westside and central city neighborhoods and running close to Parks in South Los Angeles. He trailed Hertzberg substantially in the Valley, getting 24% to Hertzberg’s 34%, with Hahn receiving 21% of the Valley vote.

Villaraigosa won handily among self-described liberals, while running close to even with Hahn -- but behind Hertzberg -- among moderates and self-described conservatives. Villaraigosa also carried almost every age group, except voters 65 and older, and almost all income groups except the most affluent. He also carried college graduates, as well as those without college degrees.

He won 35% of union voters compared with 27% for Hahn, despite organized labor’s endorsement of the incumbent.

Villaraigosa was also far more successful than the mayor in maintaining his support from the 2001 campaign: 70% of those who voted for Villaraigosa in April 2001 backed the challenger again Tuesday, while only 41% of those who voted for Hahn in 2001 cast a repeat ballot.

Of all candidates in the five-man field, Villaraigosa had by far the most favorable image, with 71% of those surveyed saying they viewed him positively. By contrast, 52% had an unfavorable image of Hahn, compared with 48% who viewed the mayor favorably. Hertzberg was viewed favorably by 58% and unfavorably by 42%.

Hahn, who was elected four years ago with strong black support, suffered a precipitous falloff within the African American community Tuesday. He received the backing of just about one in four black voters, compared with roughly 70% four years ago.

Parks, the sole black candidate in the five-man field, won the support of 54% of African American voters. His ouster as police chief -- a move engineered by Hahn -- was a factor in the decisions of about half of black voters. Of those, 69% supported Parks.

Allegations of corruption at City Hall also badly hurt Hahn: 43% of those sampled Tuesday said the allegations played a role in their decision on whom to support. Of those, almost 40% backed Villaraigosa, 30% voted for Hertzberg, 12% supported Parks and only 9% sided with Hahn.

Somewhat offsetting the various defections, Hahn improved his showing this time among Latino voters, gaining the support of about three in 10 moderate or conservative Latinos, or 17% of Latinos overall. He also boosted his support in the Asian community, winning nearly six in 10 Asian voters, or a 27-point increase from four years ago.

The exit poll interviews also provided a snapshot of other motivations for voters.

More than half of Villaraigosa’s supporters said they backed him for ideological reasons or because they believed he could build coalitions and bring the city together. Hertzberg voters were similarly ideological, with 36% saying they backed the former Assembly speaker because he shared their political views. Roughly three in 10 cited Hertzberg’s “vision.”

By contrast, 69% of Hahn voters cited his experience as the main reason they voted for him.

In the main, Villaraigosa voters tended to be liberal Democrats who supported him four years ago. Hahn’s voters tended to be highly affluent and more bullish about the direction of the city. Hertzberg’s supporters were predominantly white, more conservative and clustered in the San Fernando Valley.

With no major Republican in the race, the electorate Tuesday leaned to the left compared with the turnout four years ago. Self-described liberals made up just over half the electorate as opposed to just under half four years ago. The percentage of moderates slipped slightly, and the self-described conservatives remained unchanged.

While the turnout among white voters was largely unchanged, the percentages of black, Latino and Asian voters increased slightly.

As for the time frame of voters’ decisions, Villaraigosa and Hahn did best among those who made up their minds within the last 48 hours, with each getting almost three in 10 late-deciders. Hertzberg, by contrast, received about a fifth of the vote among late-deciders, suggesting a last-minute barrage of Hahn attacks may have taken a toll.

Not surprisingly for two candidates who ran four years ago, a majority of Hahn and Villaraigosa voters made up their minds before the end of February. By contrast, nearly two-thirds of Hertzberg voters made up their minds from the end of February on, as his quirky campaign ads drew notice.

The Times Poll interviewed 2,789 voters as they left 50 polling places across the city of Los Angeles during voting hours. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 2 percentage points.

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How they voted

These data from the Los Angeles Times exit poll show how various groups of Los Angeles voters cast their ballots for mayor in Tuesday’s election. The columns of percentages on the right read horizontally. For example, of all Westsiders who voted for mayor, 33% voted for Antonio Villaraigosa, 28% voted for James K. Hahn and so forth.

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa Totals 100% All voters* 4% 24 22 13 33

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When decided to vote

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 27% Weekend/later 6% 27 22 11 30 73% Earlier 3% 23 23 13 34

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Region of the city

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 17% Westside 3% 28 25 7 33 40% San 5% 21 34 9 24 Fernando Valley 25% Central 5% 25 14 7 47 18% South 2% 25 3 36 33

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Race/ethnicity

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 52% Whites 3% 23 36 5 27 16% Blacks 2% 23 5 54 15 22% Latinos 9% 17 6 3 64 6% Asians -% 59 12 8 19

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Gender

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 50% Men 3% 25 26 10 31 50% Women 5% 23 19 15 35

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Age

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 9% 18-29 6% 22 13 8 45 23% 30-44 3% 25 24 11 34 46% 45-64 5% 23 23 11 34 22% 65 or older 3% 27 25 16 23

*--*

Annual family income

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 10% Less than 6% 22 4 19 45 $20,000 17% $20,000 to 5% 28 16 12 35 $39,999 17% $40,000 to 5% 22 23 15 32 $59,999 30% $60,000 to 4% 27 22 11 31 $100,000 26% More than 2% 20 37 8 28 $100,000

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Education

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 40% Less than 5% 23 17 16 34 college 60% College 3% 25 27 10 31 degree or more

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Union membership

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 23% Union members 5% 27 15 13 35 77% Not union 4% 23 26 12 31 members

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Religion

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 34% Non- Catholic Christians 3% 29 23 20 19 27% Catholics 6% 23 15 8 46 14% All Jews 2% 17 47 2 27 5% Westside 1% 20 37 1 36 6% San 3% 12 56 5 18 Fernando Valley

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Political ideology

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 51% Liberals 4% 25 16 11 42 24% Moderates 4% 25 32 14 23 25% Conservatives 3% 22 29 14 20

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Party registration

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 68% Democrats 4% 24 16 14 40 10% Independents 5% 23 30 9 27 20% Republicans 2% 25 40 11 10

*--*

Ideology and party

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 43% Liberal 4% 25 16 11 43 Democrats 25% Moderate 5% 23 19 18 33 Democrats 7% Moderate 2% 29 39 10 16 Republicans 12% Conser- vative Republicans 2% 22 41 10 7

*--*

Sexual orientation

*--* % of all Richard James K Bob Bernard Antonio R. voters Alarcon Hahn Hertz- C. Parks Villa- berg raigosa 8% Gays/lesbians 2% 20 26 7 43

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* Percentages in this row are from actual returns. They do not include several thousand uncounted absentee and provisional ballots.

Note: Numbers may not total 100% where some voter groups or candidates are not shown. (-) indicates less than 0.5%

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How the poll was conducted: The Los Angeles Times Poll interviewed 2,789 voters as they left 50 polling places across Los Angeles during voting hours. Precincts were chosen based on the pattern of turnout in past citywide elections. The survey was a self-administered, confidential questionnaire. The margin of sampling error for percentages based on the entire sample is plus or minus 2 percentage points; for some subgroups the error margin may be somewhat higher. Because the survey does not include absentee voters or those who declined to participate when approached, demographic estimates by the interviewers were used to adjust the sample slightly and the sample was weighted to reflect the outcome. Questionnaires were available to voters in English and Spanish. Interviews at the precinct level were conducted by Davis Research of Calabasas. Raphael J. Sonenshein, political scientist at Cal State Fullerton, was a political consultant to the Times Poll.

Poll results are also available at http://netblogpro.com/timespoll.

Source: L.A. Times Poll