North Korea Escalates Its Nuclear Threat

WASHINGTON —  North Korea on Thursday made its boldest claim that it has atomic weapons and said it would not return to six-nation talks to negotiate an end to its nuclear program.

The news jarred U.S. officials and their allies, who believed North Korea had nuclear devices but had expected disarmament talks to resume as soon as this month.

In a statement transmitted by the nation’s official news agency, Pyongyang said it had decided to suspend negotiations because the second-term Bush administration was pursuing “regime change” and seeking to “isolate and stifle” North Korea.

The United States and other governments sought to downplay the significance of North Korea’s announcement. U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, who was traveling in Europe, called the announcement “unfortunate” and said it only deepened North Korea’s international isolation. She promised to consult with South Korea, China, Russia and Japan, the other nations in the six-party talks, before deciding how to proceed.

Behind the public nonchalance, current and former U.S. and foreign officials said that Pyongyang’s move raised disturbing questions. All expressed hope that North Korea was posturing to exact concessions before returning to the bargaining table. They said North Korea might re-engage in the talks if China, which supplies much of its fuel and food, applied sufficient pressure. But none of the officials was willing to predict that China would do so.

Some expressed the fear that North Korea’s leadership had no intention of giving up its nuclear weapons and was seeking de facto recognition as a nuclear power. Pyongyang’s “indefinite suspension” of talks, officials said, was probably its attempt to stall while expanding its arsenal, betting that China and a U.S. administration preoccupied with the Middle East would not risk nuclear war to try to disarm it.

“I think it is a crisis,” said a senior diplomat from a country involved in the six-nation talks, adding that Thursday’s action could prove as significant as Pyongyang’s announcement in 1993 that it was withdrawing from the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, which triggered the first crisis around North Korea’s nuclear activities.

“This could be their attempt to make their nuclear weapons a fait accompli, make them join the club of India and Pakistan,” the diplomat said.

India and Pakistan were sanctioned by the United States after they tested atomic weapons, but they were eventually accepted by the U.S. and the rest of the international community as nuclear powers.

Pyongyang’s pursuit of nuclear arms was once called the biggest security threat to the United States. The U.S. fears that such weapons in the hands of one of the world’s harshest totalitarian regimes could trigger a nuclear arms race throughout Asia. It also worries that North Korea could export its technology to other countries or extremist groups.

Analysts said the Bush administration would face a crisis if North Korea succeeded in joining the nuclear club. North Korea has previously claimed to have a “nuclear deterrent.” In September, North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Choe Su Hon told reporters at the United Nations that his government had “weaponized” nuclear material.

“It’s rhetoric we’ve heard before,” said White House spokesman Scott McClellan, traveling with President Bush to North Carolina.

For the Bush administration, “it’s the same crisis they’ve always faced and that they’ve always declared not to be a crisis, and they’ll continue to declare it not to be a crisis,” said Charles L. “Jack” Pritchard, a former U.S. ambassador and special envoy for negotiations with North Korea.

The announcement merely formalizes the current stalemate, Pritchard said, because the United States has long believed that Pyongyang has as many as eight nuclear devices and because the six-party talks have been stalled for eight months.

There may be other reasons for the Bush administration’s lack of alarm.

“It’s still unclear that their nuclear weapons are any good,” former U.N. weapons inspector David Albright said. “Can they be launched by missiles? We haven’t seen any evidence.”

Before Bush’s second inauguration, North Korea had said it would look to the U.S. president’s new Cabinet and his inaugural and State of the Union addresses to decide whether Washington had changed its policy of “hostility.”

Skittish South Korean and Chinese officials urged the Bush administration not to offend North Korea, and Bush had no critical or threatening references to North Korea in either speech. Rice, however, in her confirmation hearing called North Korea “an outpost of tyranny,” a phrase that was attacked in North Korea’s statement.

“They have declared it as their final goal to terminate the tyranny, defined [North Korea] too, as an ‘outpost of tyranny’ and blustered that they would not rule out the use of force when necessary,” the statement said. “And they pledged to build a world based on the U.S. view on value through the ‘spread of American-style liberty and democracy.’ ”

On Thursday, Rice steered clear of any condemnation of the government that Bush in 2002 said belonged to an “axis of evil” and instead apparently tried to reassure North Korea.

“The president of the United States said in South Korea that the United States has no intention to attack North Korea,” she said. “They’ve been told they can have multilateral security assurances if they will make the important decision to give up their nuclear weapons program.”

The other four nations issued subdued statements. South Korea called the North Korean move “regrettable.” China said it hoped the talks could continue, and Russia said it was “disappointed.”

The low-key statements were designed “not to make the North Koreans enjoy our panic,” said the senior diplomat from one of the countries. “It is a dilemma. On the one hand, it’s very significant and we should be very upset with that, but by getting upset, we are playing their game. So we are trying to be resolute but not as excited.”

Some Asian analysts say North Korea’s objectives are clear. Pyongyang thinks it’s not getting the attention it deserves and wants to rekindle a crisis atmosphere.

“The North Korean government and [leader] Kim Jong Il want to put pressure on the U.S. because they feel the U.S. has not been serious,” said Jin Linbo, senior research fellow with the China Institute of International Studies in Beijing.

“They want everyone to get more excited, and they want to escalate the tension with the U.S. with the aim of getting eventual benefits.”

North Korea’s move puts China in a tough and potentially embarrassing position. “This is a real blow to the Chinese, to their credibility, to their prestige and influence,” the senior diplomat from one of the nations said. “Even though the Chinese will show a great deal of patience, and maybe even counsel patience, I think they are very upset.”

Some current and former U.S. officials said the United States would probably try to persuade South Korea and China to deliver an ultimatum to Pyongyang: Come back to the negotiating table within a relatively short time or face U.N. Security Council condemnation and possibly economic sanctions.

Robert Einhorn, a former U.S. State Department negotiator with North Korea, said it would be unwise for the United States to threaten North Korea or pressure its partners publicly.

“We should go to the four others privately and try to develop a private strategy,” Einhorn said. “It should not involve a public ultimatum to the North Koreans which will only make it tougher to accept.”

Two years ago, the International Atomic Energy Agency -- the U.N. nuclear monitor -- declared North Korea in violation of nuclear nonproliferation standards and referred the issue to the Security Council. China has opposed bringing North Korea before the Security Council, and the U.S. has allied itself with Beijing in pushing for a diplomatic settlement.

If China is unable to bring North Korea to the negotiating table soon, however, the U.S. may rethink that approach, one official suggested.

“If the North Koreans have decided [the six-party talks] are dead, it’s time to pass a resolution initiating formal sanctions against North Korea,” a State Department official said, speaking on condition of anonymity. “Everyone prefers a diplomatic process, but if the North Koreans are going to turn their nose up at it, what other choice do we have?”

Pritchard and Einhorn said the North Korean statement may have less to do with Bush administration behavior on the nuclear issue -- which has been relatively moderate and diplomatic -- than with a trip to Asia last week by a senior National Security Council official, Michael Green, bearing a presidential letter whose contents have not been disclosed.

Green is reported to have presented evidence to Beijing, Seoul and Tokyo that North Korean uranium hexafluoride, or UF6, a chemical used to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons use, was found in Libya.

According to U.S. officials and others, the outside of a cylinder of UF6 gas found during inspection of Libya’s nuclear facilities turned out to be contaminated with plutonium that matched the profile of plutonium from North Korea’s Yongbyon plant.

U.S. officials have long suspected that North Korea may have one or more secret uranium enrichment facilities, perhaps hidden in caves. One official said the intelligence experts who analyzed the UF6 were “pretty certain” of their conclusions and that “our experts are really careful after previous mistakes” -- a reference to intelligence failures concerning the Iraqi weapons program.

A delegation of senior Chinese negotiators was scheduled to visit North Korea shortly after Wednesday’s Lunar New Year and might have been preparing to confront Pyongyang with the evidence that they had exported gas whose only purpose would be to enrich uranium for nuclear weapons.

The North Koreans may have thought that “the noose is going to close on us, we better act now,” Einhorn said.

*

Times staff writer Mark Magnier in Beijing contributed to this report. Efron reported from Washington and Wallace from Tokyo.

*

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX)

Nuclear powers

If North Korea’s claim that it has nuclear weapons proves true it would be the ninth country known to have the devices.

Approximate nuclear arsenals:

Tactical Strategic (less powerful) Estimate

Russia 5,000 3,500 U.S. 5,000 1,000 France 350 China 300 120 Britain 200 India 45 95 Pakistan 30 50 Israel 200*

*Not confirmed by government

Note: Russia and the United States have 11,000 and 3,000 warheads in storage, respectively

Sources: Arms Control Assn., Nuclear Threat Initiative, Associated Press