Candidates’ Consultants Win or Lose at Polls Too

Los Angeles voters will choose between Jim Hahn and Antonio Villaraigosa for mayor Tuesday, and as they do, they will cast their ballots in a long-running political contest between two of the state’s preeminent campaign consultants, Bill Carrick and Parke Skelton.

Carrick, the Southerner with an easy drawl who runs Hahn’s campaign, and Skelton, the Los Angeles native with the look of a Berkeley radical who is Villaraigosa’s chief advisor--are engaged in an intense behind-the-scenes strategic struggle. The only thing holding them back, associates and others say, may be the candidates themselves.

In their world of Democratic campaign consultants, Carrick and Skelton are considered among the best. They win more often than they lose, even as they rely on different strategies and approaches. Carrick specializes in television. Skelton is known for his use of direct mail. Skelton charges a flat fee, Carrick takes his cut from the television advertising and mail.

Neither has to solicit business. It comes to them.

Today, they are adversaries; tomorrow, as in the past, they may well be allied.

Last year, for instance, they were paired in Adam Schiff’s congressional campaign. They also worked together on Genethia Hayes’ school board race. The team of Skelton and Carrick won both of those races.

In the more recent round of school board contests, however, they faced off against each other, with Carrick taking a beating along with Mayor Richard Riordan. In one of those races, Skelton steered Julie Korenstein to victory against Tom Riley, a Carrick client.

Despite Carrick’s occasional work for Riordan, the two consultants almost exclusively take jobs from Democrats. Still, Skelton’s reputation places him to the left of Carrick.

On Tuesday, either Carrick or Skelton will lead his candidate to one of the plum political posts in America.

“Here you’re going for the Grammy, the Oscar, the big prize,” said Joe Cerrell, a veteran political consultant and chairman emeritus of the American Assn. of Political Consultants. “These are talented guys who know how to do the right things.”

Republican media consultant Ray McNally agreed, adding: “They are formidable opponents. They know what they’re doing, and that should make for a hard-fought and colorful contest.”

Consultants Even Contributed Money

Confronted with candidates who have similar politics but different styles and experience, Carrick and Skelton have worked since April 10, when the first round of the election ended, to differentiate their clients in the minds of voters. So deeply do both men feel about this race that both have contributed their own money to it--a rarity in the business of political consulting.

As they press to the finish, Skelton and Carrick have amassed teams of advisors, in some cases hiring some of the consultants of the candidates they beat to get to the runoff.

Among the heavyweights on Carrick’s team: Kam Kuwata, a highly respected consultant who was previously asked to manage Villaraigosa’s campaign; Matt Middlebrook, who has worked on several state and local races and who is close to Hahn; and Bill Wardlaw, the unpaid campaign chairman who is advising the team predominantly on strategy and fund-raising.

In Skelton’s camp: David Doak, a Washington, D.C., television advertising specialist; Ace Smith, a San Francisco-based campaign veteran who until April 10 was managing Steve Soboroff’s mayoral campaign; Ted Osthelder, who is the campaign manager; and Elena Stern, a veteran of Los Angeles and Sacramento politics who is handling media. Democratic operative Darry Sragow; Ari Swiller, a top aide to billionaire Ron Burkle; and Ben Austin, Riordan’s top media aide, are unpaid political advisors. Business tycoons Eli Broad and Burkle are supporters who are helping with fund-raising.

Overall, the campaigns give each other fairly high marks, but they relish the moments when they believe their rivals have stumbled. The Hahn camp says Skelton and his team already have scored points by placing the highest in the April election, but Carrick and his group believe the Villaraigosa team is relying too heavily on endorsements rather than on issues.

The Villaraigosa camp says the Carrick team failed to win key support--and money--from the state Democratic Party and the Los Angeles County Federation of Labor. Skelton and his deputies also argue that the Hahn campaign is too negative, a tone that they believe will backfire against the city attorney on election day.

Although they appear cordial, tensions between the campaigns have risen in recent weeks. Talks over proposed debates, for instance, were marked by one side or the other threatening to walk out. The participants then would cool off, and, in the end, the two sides agreed to six debates.

Amid the overwhelmingly favorable assessments of Carrick and Skelton, their peers do cite differences in style.

Some who know both consultants say that Carrick is better at the campaign message and that Skelton is better on the ground. They say Carrick is weaker at mail; Skelton is weaker in television. Carrick is better at spinning reporters; Skelton is weaker with the press.

“I think Carrick on a citywide campaign is brilliant as far as seeing the broad, major issues but as far as the neighborhood-by-neighborhood [issues], Parke Skelton is a little better,” Riordan said.

Indeed, Carrick, 50, has national campaign experience stemming from the 1970s. Among some of the highlights: He formed a national consulting firm with his partner, Hank Morris, in 1989; ran Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s 1992 and 1994 races as well as her unsuccessful bid for governor in 1990; oversaw Rep. Richard Gephardt’s brief presidential campaign in 1988 and ran President Clinton’s reelection campaign in California in 1996 and worked for the Democratic Party here last year. He has run congressional campaigns, initiatives and other races, including a gubernatorial race in Mississippi. Morris is working on Alan Hevesi’s mayoral race in New York City.

‘The Grabber’ Ad Helped Feinstein

Ironically, it was a losing race that boosted Carrick’s reputation. Along with his partner, Carrick created a television ad for Feinstein’s gubernatorial race. That ad, known as “the Grabber,” opened with 1978 footage of Feinstein announcing the killings of San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk. It catapulted Feinstein in the polls in that race and in statewide politics two years later; it is still mentioned in campaign circles.

Feinstein recalls Carrick’s work fondly: “ ‘The Grabber’ put me on the map. We were substantially behind. I think we made a 20-point swing [upward in the polls]. It had real impact. He is very creative.”

Carrick laughed at the memory. He told a reporter not to expect that type of commercial for Hahn--those rarely come around.

“We knew it would create an incredible reaction--we just didn’t know in which direction,” he said over a late breakfast recently at the Biltmore Hotel.

Carrick is a native of South Carolina, where, he says, politics was easy: There were black candidates and white candidates, and none of the ethnic complexity that has become the city of Los Angeles.

“The multiplicity of different communities within the communities--Latinos from Central America, Latinos from Mexico, Latinos from Puerto Rico . . . it’s very complicated,” Carrick said. “The coalition-building here is much more complex, much more difficult for outside observers. The diversity is so deep.”

Carrick said he is somewhat surprised by the “very intricate” questions he is asked about this campaign and the “intense observations” people are making. Out walking his dogs near his home in the Hollywood Hills, for example, neighbors frequently stop him to talk about the race.

In the closing days of the campaign, advertising has ratcheted up--and turned more negative. Although Carrick and the Hahn campaign have been accused of forcing the campaign in a negative direction, they maintain that they are illustrating Villaraigosa’s record, a legitimate exercise.

“Negativity is almost always controlled by who’s behind,” Carrick said. “Jim’s experience as both participant and observer leads him to the conclusion that you can’t let attacks go unanswered. I don’t think he sits around plotting how to undercut the other candidate . . . [but] he’s not reticent about getting into the give-and-take of politics.”

Nor is Carrick, according to consultants and politicians who have worked with him and against him. His low-key appearance can be deceiving. After all, his longtime pal, the late Lee Atwater, was an avatar of negative campaigning.

“Carrick always figured you ‘won’ if you gave the press ‘red meat,’ ” journalist and author Richard Ben Cramer wrote in his analysis of the 1988 presidential campaign. “If you took someone’s head off, you’d be in the lead in the next day’s paper, you’d be the sound-bite on TV for a week!”

In most of his campaigns, meanwhile, Skelton, 45, prefers to remain in the background, strategizing from his ragtag office near Hollywood Boulevard and Vine Street. There, a toddler-sized basketball hoop sits in the corner along with assorted toys, newspapers and photographs. Skelton’s wife, Alison Morgan, is a political fund-raiser who keeps an office in the same building.

Skelton Got His Start as a Student

Skelton stumbled into politics as a UCLA student studying philosophy. He thought he would be a professor, but his interests were diverted when he became involved in the fight for the first rent control law in Santa Monica.

Soon he quit school, spending all his time passing out leaflets in front of supermarkets and gradually helping to run the rent control campaign.

“I realized I was developing a skill that was useful and not that available for grass-roots community groups involved in organizing,” Skelton said recently, sitting in his cramped office in shorts and sandals.

He hasn’t looked back. Since then, Skelton has become the go-to guy for liberal local and state candidates. He still works on Santa Monica and West Hollywood City Council races and initiative drives, however, and even works for candidates pro bono--if he believes their politics are progressive enough.

He ran Mike Woo’s unsuccessful campaign against Riordan in 1993 (and scored Riordan’s endorsement for Villaraigosa); numerous school board races and scores of City Council campaigns. He also oversaw Rep. Adam Schiff’s campaign against incumbent James Rogan, the costliest congressional race in U.S. history.

He and his partners are managing six campaigns for the city election. Aside from Villaraigosa’s, that roster includes the City Council race of Janice Hahn, the city attorney’s sister.

That race has left some of Skelton’s colleagues raising their eyebrows. How does he work against Jim Hahn in the morning and work for his sister in the afternoon?

Skelton and his partners took on these campaigns after much deliberation, he said. The decision came down to a simple question that he asks in every race: Who do we want to win? The answer, Skelton said, was easy: Antonio Villaraigosa and Janice Hahn.

For his part, Jim Hahn says he has long known his sister as “a very independent person,” so he was not surprised when she selected Skelton over Carrick.

Skelton said a partner mostly works on the council campaign while he spends most of his time on the Villaraigosa race.

Although Skelton is now Villaraigosa’s principal advocate, the consultant did not always think this campaign was a good idea. In fact, he tried to persuade Villaraigosa to run for City Council.

“I’m a little amazed we are where we are,” he said, laughing. “I wouldn’t have believed it.”

Enemies Today Could Be Allies Tomorrow

Among the most common compliments politicians make about Skelton is this: He lets them remain true to themselves. His forte, they say, is in packaging their message and communicating that to voters.

“He will never make you say or do anything that you don’t believe,” said John Heilman, the mayor of West Hollywood, who hired Skelton for several campaigns. “What I have always appreciated is that he never tried to make me anything other than what I am and that says a lot about his integrity.”

Others, however, say Skelton’s campaigns are predictable: that he typically sends a lot of mail toward the end of a race rather than throughout, and that he doesn’t usually overdo the expensive television ads.

“We anticipated what kind of campaign he was going to run against us, how he would run it, the direction it would take . . . a year and a half before the election,” said Rogan. “But he earned his money.”

Rogan’s campaign manager from that race agrees, and also concurs that there is a certain predictability to Skelton’s tactics.

“From a Republican point of view,” said Jim Nygren, “he tends to run campaigns that paint the Republican in unflattering terms and push them to the right.”

In the final hours before election day, the consultants are making their last push to grab voters’ attention. Villaraigosa has ramped up his rebuttals to Hahn’s criticisms, and Hahn is appealing to the core constituents he believes will put him over the top.

Skelton and Carrick will be at their sides at the finish--win or lose.

But both acknowledge they probably will work together again. After Tuesday.

“Today’s enemy,” said Dick Rosengarten, the publisher of the California political news weekly Calpeek, “is tomorrow’s ally.”