Proposition 209 Still Holding Strong Lead

SACRAMENTO —  Support remains strong for Proposition 209, the statewide initiative that would bar affirmative action in government hiring, contracting and college admissions, a Los Angeles Times poll has found.

Despite some softening in recent weeks, and with the Nov. 5 election close, the measure still holds a significant lead: 54% of likely voters support it, 31% oppose it and 15% are undecided.

Backing for the proposition in the latest Times snapshot of voters’ attitudes was down from 59% of likely voters in September and from as high as 66% of registered voters polled last year. Promoters of the initiative, including the California Republican Party, are embarking on a major advertising campaign, vowing to spend more than $2 million during the closing days of the campaign.

The outcome “hinges on whether the message gets out from both sides,” said Susan Pinkus, acting director of the Times Poll. “If there is a lot of money on the pro-209 side, their message is going to overwhelm the ‘no’ side.”

The Times poll, taken Oct. 17-21, surveyed 1,551 Californians, including 1,290 registered voters. The margin of sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points. It is the final Times poll on ballot initiatives before election day.

On the four other measures sampled, the poll found that support has increased for Proposition 215, the measure to legalize marijuana for medicinal purposes. An initiative to expand the right to sue companies for securities fraud, Proposition 211, was trailing. Two others, Propositions 214 and 216, to increase regulation of the health care industry, were leading, but with large numbers of voters remaining undecided.

The dip to 54% in support for Proposition 209 was among the poll’s most notable findings.

In findings with implications for the fight for California’s 54 electoral votes, The Times’ poll shows that supporters of Proposition 209 are split between President Clinton and Republican challenger Bob Dole, with 41% of the voters who intend to vote for Proposition 209 supporting Clinton and 44% of those intending to vote for the initiative planning to vote for Dole.

Dole has pinned much of his California campaign strategy on his support for Proposition 209 and Clinton’s opposition to the measure.

“Even though Dole has come out for this initiative,” Pinkus said, “that’s not the overriding factor why people are choosing their presidential candidate. It’s not resonating.”

Among the poll’s other findings, the gender gap narrowed for Proposition 209, with the measure losing some support among men.

In the poll taken in September, two-thirds of the men sampled said they planned to vote for the measure. In the new poll, 55% of men said they support it, with 29% against it and 16% undecided.

Women supported Proposition 209 in the latest poll by a margin of 50% to 31%, a change from September, when they backed it by 54% to 28%, with the rest undecided.

The strongest opposition comes from African Americans, with 45% opposing Proposition 209 and 37% for it. Latino voters oppose it too, but by a more narrow margin--42% against and 38% in favor. Whites support the measure 58% to 25%.

With one exception, the initiative is ahead in all regions of the state, including Los Angeles, where it is ahead 50% to 29%, with 21% undecided. The exception is the Bay Area, where it trails for the first time, with 43% against and 40% in favor.

“I think affirmative action has worked,” said poll respondent Doris Matthews, 53, of the Bay Area city of Morgan Hill in the Silicon Valley.

Before her retirement, Matthews worked as a newspaper dispatcher and driver, and described herself as a “token woman” in her department. She said she believes she might not have gotten the job without affirmative action.

“It has opened up the marketplace to not just ethnic minorities, but to women,” Matthews said.

The initiative would amend the state Constitution. It would specifically ban discrimination by barring state and local government from using quotas or preferences based on race, ethnicity, gender and other such factors in decisions regarding hiring, the awarding of contracts and admission to public colleges and universities.

Proposition 209 would not bar private employers from implementing affirmative action programs to hire or promote women and minorities.

By a margin of 52% to 30%, voters continue to support the concept of affirmative action programs designed to help women and minorities get better jobs and education. However, the poll showed that 38% of those who favor the concept of affirmative action intend to vote for Proposition 209.

Reflecting that view is poll respondent Ewing Kenney, 74, a retired chemical engineer from Lafayette, east of San Francisco, and a supporter of the initiative.

“Affirmative action has been helpful. It was needed,” Kenney said. “But the reverse discrimination part disturbs me.”

The poll found that half the registered voters would support affirmative action for poor people, regardless of their ethnic background, while 41% would oppose such a system. Democrats were especially strong in their support of economic affirmative action, 59% to 29%.

Among the four other initiatives sampled, Proposition 215, the marijuana measure, was winning among likely voters, 58% to 32%, with 10% uncertain how they will vote. In September, the measure led by 53% to 31%, with 16% undecided.

The measure has gained a higher profile since the last poll, with cartoonist Garry Trudeau drawing “Doonesbury” comic strips supportive of the measure. California Atty. Gen. Dan Lungren, who like most other law enforcement officials opposes Proposition 215, blasted the cartoonist for making light of drug use.

Proposition 215 would permit people with various ailments to use marijuana legally as long as they had approval from a physician.

The marijuana initiative leads among most groups, with one exception being conservative Republicans. Nearly three-fourths of voters 18 to 29 years old support the measure, while people 65 and older favor it by a margin of 45% to 39%, with the rest undecided. Women are more strongly in favor of it than men, with 62% of women backing it, and 57% of men supporting it.

James Retkovske, 59, of Long Beach, who suffers from the effects of a shattered vertebra, is among those who intend to vote for Proposition 215 because he would be able to obtain marijuana legally.

“I’ve always got pain, but marijuana makes it easier to take,” Retkovske said, adding that the effects of marijuana allow him to stop taking stronger painkilling medication.

Three of five voters remain unaware of both of the health care initiatives--Propositions 214 and 216--and a third of the voters have not heard of Proposition 211, the measure to expand the right to sue corporations for stock fraud in state courts.

Among likely voters who were read descriptions of the health care measures, 34% say they will vote for Proposition 216, or both of the measures, and 35% say they will vote for Proposition 214 or both. The poll found that 29% of voters intend to vote against both. But a large percentage--26%--are unsure how they will vote.

Proposition 214 is backed by Service Employees International Union, and Proposition 216 is backed by the California Nurses Assn. and trial lawyers. Both would increase regulation of the health care industry. Proposition 216 would impose new taxes and create an agency to oversee the industry.

The poll showed that voters are skeptical of Proposition 211, the measure to expand the right to sue corporations over securities fraud, and the one that has attracted near-record campaign donations.

Fifty-two percent of likely voters oppose Proposition 211, while 24% support the measure and 24% are undecided. The proposition is funded by plaintiffs’ lawyers, who would bring lawsuits the proposition would authorize. It is opposed by corporations, stockbrokers and accountants who would be targets of such suits.

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Where the Propositions Stand With Voters

Among likely voters, Proposition 209, the anti-affirmative action initiative, and 215, the medical use of marijuana initiative, appear to be winning. Proposition 211, expansion of ability to sue for securities fraud, appears to be losing. The two health care initiatives, Propositions 214 and 216, do not have strong support on either side.

PROP 209 (Affirmative Action)

For: 54%

Against: 31%

Undecided: 15%

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PROP 211 (Securities Lawsuits)

For: 24%

Against: 52%

Undecided: 24%

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PROP 215 (Medical Use of Marijuana)

For: 58%

Against: 32%

Undecided: 10%

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PROPOSITIONS 214 AND 216 (Health Care Regulation)

For 214: 11%

For 216: 10%

For both: 24%

Against both: 29%

Undecided: 26%

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PROFILE OF THE PROPOSITION 209 VOTER

While a majority of whites are for the proposition, blacks and Latinos are against it. Two-thirds of conservatives are for the initiative, while liberals are divided. The only geographic area in the state leaning against Proposition 209 is the Bay Area.

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For Against Men 55% 29% Women 50% 31% Whites 58% 25% Blacks 37% 45% Latinos 38% 42% 18-29 years old 38% 43% 65 and older 52% 26% Liberals 44% 42% Moderates 47% 32% Conservatives 67% 18% Democrats 42% 37% Independents 53% 28% Republicans 66% 20% Los Angeles County 50% 29% Rest of Southern California 56% 26% Bay Area 40% 43% Rest of Northern California 57% 27%

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Notes: Numbers do not add up to 100% because the “undecided” category is not shown.

Source: Los Angeles Times Poll

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How the Poll Was Conducted

The Times Poll contacted 1,551 California adults by telephone, including 1,038 likely voters out of 1,290 registered voters. The poll was conducted Oct. 17 to 21. The margin of sampling error for the entire sample is plus or minus 3 percentage points. Telephone numbers were chosen from a list of all exchanges in the state. Random-digit dialing techniques were used so that listed and unlisted numbers could be contacted. The entire sample was weighted slightly to conform with census figures for sex, race, age, education, region and registration. The margin of sampling error for registered voters and likely voters is plus or minus 3 percentage points. For certain subgroups, the error margin may be somewhat higher. Poll results can also be affected by factors such as question wording and the order in which questions are presented.