THE TIMES POLL : Wilson and Feinstein Run About Even

The contest to elect a new California governor is virtually even between Democrat Dianne Feinstein and Republican U.S. Sen. Pete Wilson, with voters currently choosing up sides based on the candidates’ party and sex, according to the Los Angeles Times Poll.

A statewide survey of 1,729 registered voters found Feinstein supported by 40% and Wilson by 37%, a statistical tie given a margin of error of three percentage points in either direction. Another 21% were undecided and 2% planned to vote for a minor candidate.

Voters are lopsidedly backing the nominees of their party by nearly 4 to 1, the poll showed. This is not unique in an election campaign. But what is unique about this gubernatorial race--indeed, historic for California--is that one candidate is a woman.

There is a clear “gender gap” in the contest, although it is less pronounced than the gap found in Feinstein’s Democratic primary victory over Atty. Gen. John K. Van de Kamp. So far in the general election runoff, women are supporting Feinstein by 4 to 3 and men are supporting Wilson by 5 to 4, the survey showed.

In the June 5 Democratic primary, according to a Times exit poll on Election Day, women voted for Feinstein by 5 to 3. The difference now is that Republicans have been inserted into the electoral mix. And party identity seems to be at least as important to voters as a candidate’s sex. So GOP women are siding with Wilson by nearly 3 to 1, the survey found.

Feinstein’s appeal to “make history” by electing California’s first woman governor so far is less persuasive in the general election campaign than it was in the primary. In fact, she even seems to be risking a possible male backlash. Voters as a whole disagree with the statement that “it’s time we had a woman governor.” And men disagree by 3 to 2. Women also tend to disagree slightly.

What’s more, voters, including women, disagree emphatically with Feinstein’s advocacy of gender quotas in gubernatorial appointments--her pledge “to appoint women in proportion to their parity of the population, 50%.”

When Times interviewers asked voters whether they believe “the government ought to see to it that there is an even balance between the number of men and women in public office,” the answer was a resounding “no” by more than 5 to 2. Men disagreed by nearly 4 to 1 and women by more than 2 to 1.

However, leaving quotas aside, eight in 10 voters said they do think there are enough qualified women in California to fill at least half the appointive jobs a governor has to offer.

The Times Poll, directed by I. A. Lewis, conducted telephone interviews for six days ending Wednesday night. Phone numbers were randomly selected by a computer and represent a cross-section of voter households in the state.

Besides the gubernatorial race, voters also were asked about several other contests on the Nov. 6 ballot, including:

Taxes. As an indication that the decade-old tax revolt indeed is dying, nearly three-fourths of those surveyed said they would be willing to pay higher taxes for some specific purpose. Heading the list was education, followed by fighting crime, improving health care and the environment.

Big Green. The sweeping environmental protection initiative sponsored by Van de Kamp and Assemblyman Tom Hayden (D-Santa Monica)--dubbed “Big Green” by its supporters--is favored at this embryonic stage of the campaign by 46% to 38%, with 16% undecided. Democrats and independents support it by 2 to 1. But Republicans oppose it by 5 to 3.

By region, the measure is supported 2 to 1 in the San Francisco Bay Area and 4 to 3 in Los Angeles County. But throughout the rest of the state voters are about evenly divided, with the Central Valley farm belt leaning against it.

Lieutenant Governor. In one of four statewide contests where there is a woman candidate, veteran Democratic Lt. Gov. Leo T. McCarthy leads Republican state Sen. Marian Bergeson by 36% to 20% with 44% still undecided. Women are supporting the male incumbent by 2 to 1.

Attorney General. The contest to replace Van de Kamp is virtually even between Democratic Dist. Atty. Arlo Smith of San Francisco (26%) and former GOP Congressman Daniel E. Lungren (24%). Half the voters are undecided. Smith is ahead 2 to 1 on his home turf, the Bay Area.

Treasurer. Democrat Kathleen Brown, daughter and sister of two former governors, is running virtually even with GOP Treasurer Thomas Hayes (Brown 26%, Hayes 24%). Again, half the voters are undecided. Women lean slightly toward Brown.

Secretary of State. Four-term Democratic incumbent March Fong Eu is comfortably ahead of her Republican opponent, Los Angeles City Councilwoman Joan Mike Flores, 45% to 16%, with 39% undecided. So far, Flores has not built a significant base of support among GOP voters.

Controller. Democratic incumbent Gray Davis has a big lead over Republican Matt Fong--son of the secretary of state--43% to 16%, with 41% undecided.

Insurance. Seeking to become the state’s first elected insurance commissioner, Democratic state Sen. John Garamendi leads Republican Wes Bannister by 32% to 17% with half undecided.

This is the first statewide public survey by a major polling organization since the primary election. And it comes at a time when Feinstein has been benefitting from wide, generally favorable publicity resulting from her feat of becoming the first woman in California history to capture the gubernatorial nomination of a major party.

Feinstein also continues to benefit from an exuberant personality, in contrast to her more staid opponents both in the primary and general elections. By 2 to 1, voters say she is more “dynamic” than Wilson.

Another factor in Feinstein’s favor is that Democratic voters outnumber Republicans in California, although the gap in recent years has been narrowing. This partisan advantage for the former San Francisco mayor was illustrated when voters said--by a narrow margin generally reflecting party breakdown--that after eight years under a Republican governor, “it’s time for a change to the Democratic Party.”

Further evidence that voters find the party label a compelling reason to support somebody was seen when people were asked “the single most important quality” that attracted them to their candidate. Heading the list for those surveyed was “political philosophy.”

But Feinstein has a political bridge-mending problem. Only half the Democrats who voted for Van de Kamp in the bitter primary now support her, and one-third of them back Wilson.

Each candidate seems to benefit--and suffer--from stereotyped attitudes about men and women politicians.

For example, voters think Feinstein is more “caring” about people such as themselves. They also believe she would do the best job of handling abortion and education, although many probably would have a tough time citing major substantive differences between the two. Both candidates say it should be a woman’s decision whether to have an abortion, for instance.

Male politicians usually are regarded as tougher on crime than women. And, by 3 to 2, Wilson is thought by voters to be better on crime. Again, most voters probably would have a tough time differentiating between their positions on the subject. Both are strong advocates of the death penalty, for example.

Voters who support abortion rights side with Feinstein by 4 to 3. Those who favor the death penalty back Wilson by 5 to 4.

Feinstein also is regarded as “the least knowledgeable” of the two. But, beyond any stereotypical image of women, this could be a reflection of voter awareness about Wilson’s long experience in federal, state and local governments and his more “hands-on” management style. In fact, Wilson’s supporters say his experience is almost as important as his political philosophy.

Voters, by 3 to 2, think Wilson “would do the best job as far as taxes are concerned.” Neither candidate, however, has closed the door on a possible tax increase. And both supported the gasoline tax hike recently approved by voters.

Regionally, Feinstein has a slight edge in Los Angeles County, but Wilson leads 4 to 3 in the rest of Southern California. Feinstein leads more than 2 to 1 in her native San Francisco Bay Area, but the two candidates are running about even in the rest of Northern California.

VOTER PREFERENCES

The Los Angeles Times telephoned 1,729 registered voters on the six days ending June 20, 1990.

WHICH CANDIDATE. . . FEINSTEIN WILSON Is more dynamic 53% 25% Would do best job on handling abortion 41% 16% Cares more about people like yourself 40% 31% Has the best qualities of leadership 37% 40% Would do best job on handling education 37% 26% Would do best job on improving ethics in government 35% 29% Would make the best appointments to public office 35% 36% Would do best on handling the environment 34% 29% Would do best on balancing North-South interests 34% 32% Is the least knowledgeable 33% 18% Would do the best on handling growth 32% 30% Would do the best on handling highways 30% 28% Would do the best on handling crime 28% 41% Would do the best on handling the death penalty 28% 29% Is more closely tied to special interests 28% 34% Has the poorest judgment 27% 24% Will run the more negative campaign 27% 34% Would do the best job on controlling drugs 25% 34% Would do the best job handling taxes 23% 34%

IF THE ELECTION WERE HELD TODAY, FOR WHOM WOULD YOU VOTE?

Governor: Dianne Feinstein: 40% Pete Wilson: 37% Someone else: 2% No opinion: 21%

Lieutenant governor: Leo McCarthy: 36% Marian Bergeson: 20% No opinion: 44%

Attorney general: Arlo Smith: 26% Daniel Lungren: 24% Someone else: 1% No Opinion: 49%

Treasurer: Kathleen Brown: 26% Thomas Hayes: 24% Someone Else: 1% No Opinion: 49%

Insurance commissioner: John Garamendi: 32% Wes Bannister: 17% Someone Else: 1% No Opinion: 50%

Secretary of state: March Fong Eu: 45% Joan Milke Flores: 16% No opinion: 39%

Controller: Gray Davis: 43% Matt Fong: 16% No Opinion: 41%

SOURCE: Los Angeles Times Poll